The rules are posted on the chart as well as a few entries below this.
Thanks to Stock Trader's Almanac for this little gem:
Spooky Moon Stuff:
Here's Pristine's 30 Minute gap rule: PDF LINK
"When a stock gaps up excessively, it is usually the seller who is the smart one. This is why many stocks that gap up tend to pull back rather sharply after the first 10 to 20 minutes of trading. Once the
abundant pre-market buy orders have all been satisfied, the demand is gone, and the stock
tends to give way to "professional" selling.
But there is an exception, and it is this exception
that sets the stage for one of our most powerful trading tactics. Our studies have shown that if
a stock that has gapped up is able to trade to a new daily high after 30 minutes of trading, the
strength demonstrated at the open was not artificial, but real. The strength in this case is real
because it's being confirmed by continued buying after the early a.m. rush (the first 20 minutes
or so of trading). This one simple discovery encouraged us to design a simple yet powerful
way for the Pristine Trader to capitalize on the stocks that are truly strong. It's called Pristine's
30-Minute Gap Buy Rule. Here's how it works.
The stock must gap up at the open by 1/2 or more. In most cases, a gap up much greater than
$1 will be news related (positive earnings, brokerage upgrade, etc.), which is fine. It is best if
the stock gaps open above the previous day's high.
Once the stock has gapped open, the trader must let it trade for a full 30 minutes. No action
other than watching the stock is required during this time. Often the trader will be watching and
monitoring several stocks that have met the above set-up criteria.
After 30 minutes, the trader sets an alert 1/16 above the high of the day, which in many cases
will not be too far away from the current price."
If there is a reason to go away in May, I want to understand the reason for it.
The following is quoted from Sy Harding's website http://www.streetsmartreport.com:
"Brokerage firms and mutual fund companies would have a tough time surviving if very many investors were aware of the market's seasonality and moved their money to cash for six months every year. So they must go to whatever lengths they can to distort the information.
"Invariably in trying to refute the very clear proof of the market's consistent seasonal patterns, these firms run their data from 1900, even though all of the research on seasonality shows the seasonal pattern did not begin to show up until 1950. The reason for that is simple. The seasonal pattern results from the extra chunks of money that flow into investors' hands beginning in the fall, from distributions from mutual funds (most of which have fiscal years that end either September 31 or October 31), from Christmas and year-end bonuses, from profit-sharing bonuses, income tax refunds etc. Additionally, extra chunks of money flow automatically into the market at year end from employers' contributions to their employees' 401 K and other pension plans, from automatic re-investment of mutual fund distributions, from tax-payers' annual contributions to their personal IRAs, Keough plans, etc. These extra chunks of money provide $billions of extra fuel for the market over a six month period, driving prices higher in the favorable season. In the spring those extra chunks of money dry up, removing that fuel from the market and making it much more vulnerable to any selling pressures that develop.
"However, there were no such extra chunks of money prior to 1950 because there were no mutual funds, no tax deferred 401K plans, IRAs, Keough plans, etc. The concept of companies sharing their profits with employees through profit-sharing plans had not appeared. Income taxes were non-existent, and when they were introduced were a tiny fraction of what they are today, so income tax refunds were not a factor. And so on."
Stock Traders Almanac also refers to this seasonal trend.
They recommend exiting the market when the MACD crosses down in the April-May time frame.
Since 1950, November 1st to April 30th has produced 11,703 DOW points.
May 1st to October 31st has LOST 909 DOW points.
"Results have improved substantially the past 24 years.
Adding the MACD cross TRIPLES the results"
Stock Trader's Almanac shows NASDAQ having an 8 month run: November through June.
"Since 1971, a $10,000 investment becomes $351,706 during those 8 months versus a loss of 4,088 during the July to October void.
Using the simple MACD cross as a timing indicator more than doubles the gain to $874,360 and the 4 month void loss increases to $7,461."
However there is one permutation to all of this:
the "Four-Year Cycle":
"Only 4 trades are necessary every 4 years to nearly triple the results of the Best 6 Months.
Buy and sell during the post election and mid term years and then hold from the Mid-trem MACD seasonal buy signal sometime after October 1 and hold until the post election seasonal sell signal sometime after April 1st, appx. 2 1/2 years."
(See Page 60, Stock Trader's Almanac 2010 or 2011)
It's easy to post your own charts on TT.
If you know the little secret:
If you use stockcharts,
you have to select the "linkable version" button.
(It's the 4th menu option under the chart.)
Then right click and select "properties".
Then copy the COMPLETE "location"
Then go back to TT and select the "sun set" icon .
Paste your copied "location" then add .png
You should see your chart.
Note that you can't paste anything less than a Daily chart. No 10 min charts etc. unless you have them saved on your account.
If you have copied a chart to your own computer files you can open a free account at ImageShack.com and host it there.
It will give you several link options. I use the last one. It works great!
Really, making a poll on Trader's Talk is not all that difficult.
You can ask up to 4 different questions per poll and offer up to 10 answer options per question.
The difficult part is figuring out the clearest wording for the question and then giving the clearest options.
So you may want to write out the poll questions & answer options ahead of time.
Try it when you are wondering what others are thinking.
And remember you can preview it before actually posting.
Just select "New Topic"
then: "Click here to manage this topic's poll"
Then after you title the poll,
select [Add Poll Question]
then "add poll choice"
LINK TO STOCKCHARTS I've picked these up (stolen) from others.
Two use the RSI primarily and the other uses STO and CCI.
Use them at your own risk.
I find them useful when used with other TA.
They show Q's but try them on other stuff.
BUY: 1. Above 200ma
2. 2-period RSI falls 3 days in a row
3. 1st day must be below 60
4. 2-period RSI is below 10 = BUY
5. Buy an additional unit if the 2-period RSI falls 5 days in a row
6. Exit at the close when the 2-period RSI closes above 75
SELL: 1. below 200ma
2. 2-period RSI rises 3 days in a row.
3.The first rising day (day #1) of the 2-period RSI must be above 40.
4. Today the 2-period RSI is above 90: SELL SHORT
5. Sell an additional unit if the 2-period RSI rises 5 days in a row
6. Exit at the close when the 2-period RSI closes below 25.
Buy the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ) when the 5-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closes below 30.0.
Sell the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ) when the 5-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closes above 50.0.
The Nasdaq 100 Trust is purchased during after-hours trading on the day the RSI buy signal is generated.
The Nasdaq 100 Trust is sold during after-hours trading on the day the RSI sell signal is generated.
The 5-day RSI strategy has a tendency to underperform the buy-and-hold strategy when the market is strong and outperform when the market is weak.
1997 to 2005 Results: NDX "Buy & Hold"up 76.2%, "5 day RSI" up 349.7%
1997 to 2006 Results: NDX "Buy & Hold"up 108.3%, "5 day RSI" up 381.8%
http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm (Site now closed)
RSI 12 (Sorry, I can only show 2 indicator windows)
Bull Market Signal:
Buy #1: STO & CCI both turn up, unless RSI >70.
Buy #2: CCI turns up and STO below 20.
Sell: STO & CCI both turn down.
Bear Market Signal:
Sell #1: STO & CCI both turn down, Unless RSI<30.
Sell #2: CCI turns down and STO above 80.
Buy: STO & CCI both turn up.
NOTE RSI 12, CCI 10, STO 5,5
I guess it was the VTO report which showed the Monday before Oct Opex was down only 4 times since 1982.
Also: Columbus day is "worst trading day of the year."
Best day is the Last trading day of January.
2nd best is the Wednesday of July Opex.
Write it down. Remind me later.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE LINK
Can You Make 100% Of The Market Gains Trading Only 6 Days A Month? Read On...By Larry Connors
One of the things many of us have heard over the years is that the last few days of the month and the first few trading days of the new month tend to have bullish tendencies. I first heard of this when Kevin Haggerty wrote about it here on the TradingMarkets site about six years ago. Kevin, as you know, was the head of trading for Fidelity Capital Markets for a number of years, so he has had the chance to observe this market behavior better than most of us. Since Kevin first mentioned it, I've observed the behavior enough times over the years to prompt me to research it further and to quantify it. The results from our research are very interesting and may provide you with some edges you can take advantage of in the future.
We asked the following question in our tests: How has the S&P 500 (CBOE:^SPX - News), Nasdaq 100 and Semiconductor Index (Philadelphia:^SOXX - News) done if one had purchased these markets (on the opening) a few trading days before the month ended and exited a few days into the month? We looked at buying 1-5 trading days before month's end as the entry and exiting 1-5 trading days into the new month (slippage and commission are not included. Past results are not indicative of future returns. All results were created from simulated trading).
What we found was eye-opening. Most combinations did well. The sweet spot in the combinations was the one model which had you entering on the open the day before the last trading day of the month and exiting on the open on the fifth trading day of the month (you would be in the market a total of six trading days). How well did this do? Here are some results:
The SPX gained 753 points from January 1995 through the end of 2004 (10 years). But, had you purchased the SPX the day before the last trading day of the month, and exited on the opening of the fifth trading day of the month (and you stayed out of the market the rest of the month), the gains were 820 points. That's right. Those six trading days, on a net basis, led to all the market gains. The remaining 14-16 trading days of the month led nowhere. Sixty-four percent of the trades were successful.
What about the Nasdaq? The gains hold here, too. The Nasdaq 100 has gained 1217 points over the past 10 years. But, buying and selling only over the six-day period showed gains of 1354 points.
Now let's look at the SOX (Semiconductor Index). Are you ready to have your eyes opened? The SOX gained 293 points over the past 10 years. Yet, buying and exiting during the end of the month/beginning of the month period gained 1080 points. It outperformed the SOX by more than three times, while being in the market only 28% of the time!
200-Day Moving Average
Let's go further. You know from How Markets Really Work* that over the past 15 years markets have performed better on the long side above their 200 day moving average and worse below their 200 day MA. So let's add the 200-day moving average to this. Let's only buy on the opening the day before the last trading day of the month and exit on the open on the fifth trading day of the month. And we'll only take this trade if the index is above its 200-day simple moving average. When we do this, our market exposure is now lowered to only 19%. Yet, the gains in the SPX basically replicate the total points gained while being in the market 100% of the time (753 points vs. 743 points). For the Nasdaq, the gains jump up to 1768 points versus 1217 for buy and hold. And for the SOX, the gains are 952 points versus 293 for buy and hold. The SOX gains are even more impressive because you were only in the market 14% of the time.
SOX Equity Chart
Here is an equity chart of the SOX trading it only six days a month while it's above its 200-day moving average. As you can see, a hypothetical $100,000 account has grown to better than $550,000 with a compounded annual rate of return of nearly 20%. You were only in the market 14% of the time over the past decade.
Note: On 2/25/2006 Mike Burk commented:
"In the 1970's, Norman Fosback researched end of month, beginning of month seasonality. He found the last day of the previous month and first four days of the new month had unusually high returns. He would add the second to the last day of the ending month and the fifth day of the new month if they were not Mondays."