You gotta love it!
CNBC broadcasts to the world that Golds rally is long in the tooth and now over.
Market Vane's bullish consensus for Gold is above 90% and by all accounts predicting this rally cannot last much longer.
A lot of very good newsletter writers advocate scaling back on Gold Stocks and a large number of gold-bugs are calling for a large correction.
So what do the Gold Stocks think of all of this?
Its a routine correction in an uptrend:
<b>Chart 1: HUI bouncing off its lower trend line - upward momentum still intact</b>
The HUI had been rallying strongly off its August lows and a rest was in order. In our last subscriber newsletter we highlighted the fact that the MACD and RSI had failed to confirm the new price high and a correction would soon begin. We also noted that that this would be a short sharp affair as our targets (mentioned below) had not yet been achieved.
This is classic Bull market action. Once the bull has the bit between its teeth it will do everything possible to shut investors out. A short sharp correction is just what the Dr ordered. It has the effect of working off an overbought condition without allowing investors to climb onboard. No, investors must continue to chase prices higher as this bull will not allow anyone on its back right now.
Update on Short-term Targets
We originally calculated the magnitude of this current wave by inference from the previous wave. That is (402 – 285) / 285 = 41% - multiply by the golden fib 0.618 = 25.4% which is the magnitude of this wave. Extend from the previous top for an approximate target of 500. Since we didn't get there we estimated that this movement had further to go on the upside. Whilst not an exact science, we feel that there is now another 90 - 100 points in the HUI before a larger correction sets in.
As we've been telling subscribers, the anatomy of a Gold Stock bull market is that large caps move first and the small caps join the party later – sometimes up to 2 months later. We feel the time has come for the small caps to now perform and that's where investors' focus should be.
p.s. We are still sticking with our target of 750 within 1 year as detailed in My Webpage
More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribers…
Greg Silberman CA(SA), CFA
I am an investor and newsletter writer specializing in Junior Mining and Energy Stocks and small caps listed in the US, Canada and Australia.
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Click here: My Webpage
This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis
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