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Questions

Posted by entropy, Mar 18 2008, 04:52 PM

Here's just some questions floating around in my head, I don't necessarily have the answers..but i've put some of mine brief one's below.

If there is so much panic and fear, why are the biggest moves upward and not down?
- up 54 spx points today, similar 5 days ago's - the largest down day in this 'panic' was a mere 30pts 3days ago.

My answer - fear of missing a major low is greater than fear of another major leg down + fear of financial matrix of meltdown means all efforts being made to avoid another leg down, those efforts are historically unprecented, that might be being kind about them rolleyes.gif .


Why do the monster up days surge into the close in total mega rally mode, but the down days during the 'panic' see buying and closes way off the lows ?
My answer - same reason, in any major low i've seen there's always a total washout close near the low during a 'panic'

The previous FED actions produced a monster rally that eventually failed, why will this one be any different?
My answer - it won't, but that doesn't say we can't rally for another week or two and retrace a fair bit.


Is the market in a better technical condition today than at previous lows that saw failed rallies? check your NYSI, BP's etc
My answer - worse

Is shorting or going long the easier trade at the close today? ..check tonights TT poll for an answer to that one.
My answer - 50/50

Is this market comparable to any from the past? 2000-2001? 1998? 1990-1991? 1987? 1982? 1974? 1970? ...or 1937 or 1929? ...and why?
My answer - not 1998, 1990-1991, 1987, 1982 ....nearer 1970, 74, 2000-2001 and 1930's...but it isn't going to be eactly like any of them....why? interest rate behaviour, severity of decline is end of Primary wave 3 from 1937 i.e. 1 order of magnitude greater than 2000-2002....but will be monster rallies just as that did.

Thought of one or two more -
What kind of economy has these kinds of problems, and requires this amount of panic intervention?
My answer - I'll use a metaphor I gave long time ago on FF board, an 'Enron economy', perhaps I need to update that to the Bear Stearns.

Can you invent enough money to restore an Enron economy?
My answer - what do you think has been going on the last 10 years laugh.gif


Mark



Comments

  NAV, Mar 19 2008, 01:34 AM

Entropy,

In one word "Buying Panic".

"I missed the last bull market and i swear i ain't gonna miss this one" seems to be attitude given many of the former permabears are turning into IT/LT bulls.

Either way, it does not matter to us traders. Just gotta swing both ways.

This post has been edited by NAV: Mar 19 2008, 01:35 AM

  entropy, Mar 19 2008, 12:07 PM

QUOTE (NAV @ Mar 19 2008, 01:34 AM)
Entropy,

In one word "Buying Panic".

"I missed the last bull market and i swear i ain't gonna miss this one" seems to be attitude given many of the former permabears are turning into IT/LT bulls.


Hey Nav...yeah...up in panics, grind down.

QUOTE
Either way, it does not matter to us traders. Just gotta swing both ways.


Careful now, talk of swinging everywhere I go these days ohmy.gif laugh.gif ...but yeah, exactly, no place for 'religion' in trading....your really excellent at that Nav, very even biased ..... my 'natural bear bias' so has me better at 'swinging down' than up.....so I missed getting long for that up move even though I saw it coming a mile off.....da boyz is good though, I really have to admire them....that terrible close followed followed by gap up 2% was brilliant.....but the post fed move bear trap was a one for the ages....hard to trade those kinda swings for moi....I generally don't try FED day.

Good trading to you Nav.

Mark.

 
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