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01/06/11 BullBear Update

Posted by Steven Vincent, Jan 7 2011, 01:57 AM

This update will focus on SPX and general market issues. I will post market specific updates in the appropriate discussion forum sections.
At this time I do see the possibility of a minor short term correction. SPX futures and SPX cash indices show a slightly different picture, but either way a correction of the move off the November bottom may be due.

Here's the cash market:
http://api.ning.com:80/files/pZ3obrpxD2KsJ...h.png?width=750

A penetration of 1263 should produce a minor ii correction of about 10-15 pts. If 1263 holds then the minor i wave is not over.

Here's the futures market:


The wave count is a little clearer here and it looks like a minor iv is due. Please note that very short term wave counts are difficult and these counts could end up being off. If so the error is probably that I am looking for a correction too soon.
Other than wave counts, why look for a correction here? Well it is becoming clearer that the US Dollar is about to start a iii of 3 bull move. Most market participants will conclude (perhaps correctly) that that will mean a decline in the price of all risk assets or is a precursor to deflation. I do not hold that opinion at this time. I do think continued dollar strength should be enough to force at least some profit taking by shorter term traders, thus a short term correction.

READ THE ENTIRE POST HERE: http://www.thebullbear.com/group/bullbeart...bullbear-update



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