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> Jaws of Death, Equity PC Up/OEX PC Down
IYB
post Jun 7 2009, 02:29 AM
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Viewed together the chart of the 10 dma of the equity p/c ratio and the 10 dma of the OEX p/c ratio look like the jaws of shark, open wide and ready to de-limb his adversary. ohmy.gif But seriously, if you were to compute the ratio of bottom chart reading to the top chart reading, at 2.0 this is probably the highest ratio since October 2007- the exact peak. That is to say, normally correct OEX option players are buying puts at unusually high levels while normally wrong equity players are buying calls at unusually high levels, either one a sign of trouble, but together.....well we'll just say there's blood in the water. unsure.gif Just another "flag"....

[attachment=11464:equityPC.png]
[attachment=11463:OEXPC.png]


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Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results....Albert Einstein

There is something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad...Morpheus, The Matrix
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NAV
post Jun 7 2009, 02:42 AM
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QUOTE
But seriously, if you were to compute the ratio of bottom chart reading to the top chart reading, at 2.0 this is probably the highest ratio since October 2007- the exact peak


Very important point IMO. What it probably implies, falls in line with my beleif that a new bear leg is about to begin. Not just a pullback as many beleive (or a new bull as the perma bulls beleive), but another bear leg which should take out the March lows and head down far below that. I am thinking SPX 500.


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.Blizzard
post Jun 7 2009, 05:20 AM
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http://www.cboe.com/Data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Attached image(s)
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the third movement is based on the Fibonacci sequence as this "written-out accelerando/ritardando" uses the rhythm 1:2:3:5:8:5:3:2:1.
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Tor
post Jun 7 2009, 05:58 AM
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Great chart Don, thanks for sharing that.

Very very interesting to see whats currently happening at this stage of the cycle.


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eminimee
post Jun 7 2009, 06:00 AM
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qqqqtrdr
post Jun 7 2009, 07:28 AM
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IYB: I've been tracking the 10-day OEX Put/Call. I do have this on a mild sell.. I also use it on daily as a indication of the next day. Over the last couple of days OEX put/call has been low bringing the 10-day MA down.. If the market goes up at the same time this is considered bullish not bearish. Also, OEX 10-day is not really that high ( It would be nice if it were a little closer to 1.8 ).

I'm looking for OEX Put/Call to get more bearish ( higher put/call this week ) and Equity/CBOE to be more bullish ( lower put/call this week ) as an indication this run up is topping. All this on weakening A/D..... Hope this helps....

Barry
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rkd80
post Jun 7 2009, 10:10 AM
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Lol Tea, that is fantastic. Had no idea you were such a talented artist to boot.


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redfoliage2
post Jun 7 2009, 11:13 AM
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QUOTE (rkd80 @ Jun 7 2009, 10:10 AM) *
Lol Tea, that is fantastic. Had no idea you were such a talented artist to boot.

rkd: You did not win that avatar, right? Or you just like it?
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cgnx
post Jun 7 2009, 11:42 AM
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Hi IYB,

What is your opinion on the gold market? Would you say it is in a bullmarket? According to your parameters?

Mike G.


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If it can be cornered, it will.
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zoropb
post Jun 7 2009, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE (NAV @ Jun 7 2009, 03:42 AM) *
QUOTE
But seriously, if you were to compute the ratio of bottom chart reading to the top chart reading, at 2.0 this is probably the highest ratio since October 2007- the exact peak


Very important point IMO. What it probably implies, falls in line with my beleif that a new bear leg is about to begin. Not just a pullback as many beleive (or a new bull as the perma bulls beleive), but another bear leg which should take out the March lows and head down far below that. I am thinking SPX 500.

I am with ya NAV but thinking 450+- area before next big bounce then another leg south unless some really really wild printing goes on then that may do it.

While I am here was fooling with SPX site and as of 6-2-09 as per Div. yields 2.32% SPX should be at 300 area based on bear lows. As per earnings per share of 13.49 x 14 pe spx current value 189 and would take at peak earnings of 6% year growth for next 30 years rolleyes.gif to reach our current 940 area laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif LT bulls are delusional but quite entertaining. Like they say... ignorance is bliss.

Z


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I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, Russel and now GOLD too. I mainly trade es and YM. Trading blog or Kraken only email service http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good, only es, and rus levels for now. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.
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