 CHK - question for SemiBizz |
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 Apr 14 2012, 10:43 AM
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#1
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Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 452 Joined: 29-September 03 Member No.: 120  |
Semibizz,
CHK is at 20, with previous support at 19 and 18 on a weekly chart (going back a couple years). Would you comment on whether the volume supports an entry at 18 or 19? Thanks, Dale |
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Apr 14 2012, 11:19 AM
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#2
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 Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 15142 Joined: 30-October 03 From: Planet Earth Member No.: 463 |
Hi Dale - Weekly Volume is too strong for a safe entry here.
You want to see the volume dry up, then a sign of strength - Volume thrust off the lows. Wait for a pullback, then enter with a very tight stop. I used to buy this stock in bulk when it was at the $1 levels and flip it for quick profits. That was more than 10 years ago. Natural Gas keeps making new low after new low, so I would be very careful here. This could easily drop right back to 15 bucks. XOI is down 150 pts since March 1st. That does not bode well for these energy stocks or the underlying commodities. I'm not touching them. -------------------- Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position" Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll. http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1 |
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Apr 14 2012, 11:42 PM
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#3
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Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 467 Joined: 21-November 09 From: Jersey Member No.: 9141 |
I know the question wasnt addressed to me, but I've been trading nat gas and their closely correlated coal counterparts off and on the past 12-18 months, so I know the charts of the sector leaders quite well. I thinknwe're closer than the consensus thinks to a medium term bottom in these stocks. Theyve been a lot of fun to trade for me personally using interesting stock/option combos to manage my delta. I think semi is right--downside in CHK could EASILY be 25% lower from here. Trying to trade/invest long only in this one, coal, et al is not wise right now. Having said that, the put premiums are relatively cheap considering the downside stocks like chk still potentially have. So I think you can get long here with a relatively cheap hedge, thanks mainly in part to ridiculously low levels of vol market-wide. So depending on your time frame, I wouldnt throw chk in the garbage bin completely. But I'd be at least delta neutral through May if you do initiate a long of some sort. JMHO
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Apr 15 2012, 12:26 PM
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#4
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Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 452 Joined: 29-September 03 Member No.: 120 |
Thank you both for sharing your comments.
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Apr 18 2012, 08:42 AM
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#5
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Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 15142 Joined: 30-October 03 From: Planet Earth Member No.: 463 |
CEO divulges undisclosed 1.1B loan... Breaks 18
-------------------- Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position" Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll. http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1 |
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Apr 18 2012, 10:27 AM
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#6
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Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 15142 Joined: 30-October 03 From: Planet Earth Member No.: 463 |
-------------------- Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position" Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll. http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1 |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 01:45 PM |