2 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

TSP
Bulls 26% Bears 58% Ratio 0.45

Some similar ratio readings have produced double digit percentage moves...UP AND DOWN!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 January 2009 - 12:37 AM.

[Douglas]

RD, have you back tested their new buy/sell criteria? I notice this week they switched to "buy".

[Rogerdodger]

RD, have you back tested their new buy/sell criteria? I notice this week they switched to "buy".

All the rules have changed.
In my opinion, back testing wouldn't tell much unless you could go back to the early 1930's.
Additionally, the sentiment levels and ratios are not as useful as the rate of change in the sentiment.

But I just noticed that recently there were mighty big moves with a mid 0.40's ratio

11/28/08 29% 61% 0.48 -1 12.03%
11/14/08 28% 60% 0.47 -1 -6.20%
10/31/08 27% 58% 0.47 -1 10.49%

Here's a little more "normal" type moves when the VIX was around 20:
07/03/08 28% 61% 0.46 -1 -1.21%
06/20/08 29% 62% 0.47 -1 -3.10%

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 January 2009 - 03:06 PM.