10 replies to this topic

[unosuke]

I'm not married to my positions. Nor to the Bear camp. And should we retrace all my profits I'll openly admit my errors in judgment. I didn't sit down this evening to hunt for bearish T.A. But this is what I came upon.

Almost all the analyses in these charts applies to the other indices/sectors I'm short, including the QQQQ, which is intriguing, since the Q's received so much attention for out-performing the SPX since the last I.T. low.

Here's my take on the SPX/SPY.

First a look at daily SPX:


SPY hourly since 2/09:


SPY hourly over the past several days:


SPY 15-minute over same time period:


SPY hourly during the last I.T. bottom:


SPY hourly over the past 4 months:


And finally, just a look at current ES futures:

Edited by unosuke, 24 February 2009 - 10:07 PM.

[CLK]

I'm still bearish, NDX was weak.

[unosuke]

I'm still bearish, NDX was weak.

You've made some great calls recently. Keep it up!

[CLK]

I'm still bearish, NDX was weak.

You've made some great calls recently. Keep it up!

Thanks.


Took another look at NYAD, way overdone for one day.

[selecto]

unosoke, does the following have any implications for a student of volume: Basis closing, we yesterday tested (exceeded slightly) the November low, but on lower volumne than November. Today we "bounced" off that test on higher volume than yesterday.

Edited by selecto, 24 February 2009 - 10:49 PM.

[tomterrific14]

http://stockcharts.c...t...81&cmd=show Agree with your analysis ....as price is the final arbiterof trend , however, after a brief pullback of 10 SPX points or so , a momentum downtrend has been broken on the hourly MACD indicator on the COMP (and presumably on the SPX as well) from the early Feb highs.....suggesting more near term upside.....

[pdx5]

unosoke, does the following have any implications for a student of volume:

Basis closing, we yesterday tested (exceeded slightly) the November low, but on lower volumne than November.
Today we "bounced" off that test on higher volume than yesterday.

Most discouraged investors have most likely already sold. Selling volume dropping could be the result and indication. A strong rally like today jostles the $9 Trillion sitting on the side lines into some action. That is a huge amount of money compared to those shorting + those capitulating. When and if the market advances 20% over the recent lows, I expect to see huge gains in volume.

Although there have been no days which can be characterized as a "selling climax", last 6 days (before today) have the look of discouraged bulls selling out, based on volume for each day. This bear market is now 5 months old, and there is not a lot of bulls left who will lose nerve and initiate a typical selling climax day.

Edited by pdx5, 24 February 2009 - 11:08 PM.

[unosuke]

unosoke, does the following have any implications for a student of volume:

Basis closing, we yesterday tested (exceeded slightly) the Novembetr low, but on lower volumne than November.
Today we "bounced" off that test on higher volume than yesterday.

That's an excellent question, selecto. As I learned volume analysis primarily from Tom O'Brien, he's stated unequivocally that benchmarking volume is based on the high and low of a bar - in other words, it's all based on swing points. So closing prices don't matter. By looking at the volume characteristics of how a bar comes into a swing point, one can make judgments about "supply and demand" at that price point based on the relatively higher (Quality) or lower (lack of Quality) volume.

Now, it also matters whether price closes over (if going topside) or under (if going downtown) a swing point. If it closes over (or under...) a swing, price can continue in that direction. So say SPX breaks 741.02 and closes underneath it, but on lighter volume. It can nevertheless continue going lower - but it will need to generate volume while under the swing sufficient to hold price.

Look at how the DOW broke the Nov. swing (I believe) last Thursday, closed underneath it, then volume came out Friday sufficient to hold price. Today it still closed under that Nov. swing low - and it needs to close above that Nov. low to prove it can go higher. Then the DOW needs a "sign of strength" (wide price spread with Quality of Volume) to show it has buyers, and then it may start going topside.

In other words, should SPX break the 741.02 without Quality of Volume but still close underneath 741.02 - in my work, it can still hold price if it comes up with Quality of Volume at some point while under the swing - or esle price will spring.

[Taz]

Brilliant Unosuke. I have a question. On the weekly, if this week end up being lower volume than the correspnding Nov bottom would that change your opinion? Cheers Taz

[unosuke]

Brilliant Unosuke.

I have a question.

On the weekly, if this week end up being lower volume than the correspnding Nov bottom would that change your opinion?

Cheers Taz

Let me state what a successful test of the November '08 low on a weekly basis would look like: SPX price trades at 741.02, rejects the price, closes on a weekly basis above 741.02, and does all that on lighter volume (I'd like volume on the order of ~10% lighter to be sure).

In that case, odds favor a bullish spring.