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[arbman]

Over the past 36 weeks that the market has been rallying since the March low, the market had 10 down weeks, 4 flat and 22 up weeks --or up 61% of the time. Over the past 18 weeks since the July lows, the market had about 6 down weeks, 1 flat and 11 up weeks --or up 61% of the time too. The market was up 42% from the March lows, then 26% from the July lows or 26/42 = 62%. You would expect a minimum of 61% of these gains to continue from here. I would think 16% upside and at least 7 up weeks and 3 down weeks and 1 flat week is not too much to expect from here. The price target should be around 1190-1200 by these measures... I think we will have the first weekly down week after Thanksgiving, then rally another 2 weeks and probably sell starting from the last week of December, a flat week somewhere around there... So, at least 3 more up weeks for this streak from this 84-86 day cycle low... The market's rhythm is very obvious to me, it has been fairly clear for over 2 years now and I do not expect it to change anytime soon... Best of luck.

[arbman]

Actually a simple projection using the two rallies still project to roughly 1125-1135 area for the end of the year. The January rally on this chart is very iffy, we need to see how it ends. I am still skeptical we will see near 1200 in 2009 due to the leadership...