4 replies to this topic

[stanley]

SPX monthly outlook, January 2010
- The Celestial Winter to Eternal Spring

photos:
Winter: http://farm3.static....21a9b089d_o.jpg

Spring: http://home.comcast....lis_Road_01.jpg
Spring: http://farm1.static....7579b6aa9_o.jpg

photo creditor: L1 L2 L3

January outlook in essence

SPX 1158 is an unrealized wave target (1158-1175). The resistance is 1132, 1144. The first line support moves up to 1103, then 1090, and 1064. The near term pivot is 1117

In retrospective mode

On 12/09, index plotted the monthly low 1,085.89 then reversed up. On 12/28-29, index marked the yearly high 1130.38.
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December outlook in essence
This month is a transitional period. Index may jog in between the two important clusters 1083-1132 and 1034-1066. When index penetrates the inter pivots 1082 and 1074, it may find support around 1046-1048, and therefore, establishes a new round of assault. Critical support is 1000-1014 with pivot 1019. Resistance is 1116/1117 with pivot 1007-1009.
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Probe the Q1 /2010

The turn date on 03/01 is sandwiched by 01/18/10 (Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618) and 04/13/10 (long PI date), the index action in this period provide a good perception for the rest of the 2010. By that time, we may feel the beginning of something. The prelude for the alignment of our times; The key zone to watch is 1014-1001 and 948-962.
Insert: Link to The Grand Cross and An Alignment for Our Times, 10/24/09


Fibonacci retracements & Wave projections

In the chart shown below, the 0.5 movement of [666.79-->956.23] on top of 869.32 is 1014, a 1.0 movement put wave at 1159. on wave extension, 1.236 put index at 1227. coincidently, 1227 overlaps with the 0.618 retracement out of [667:1576] at 1229.
The movements has some traceable trails. Thus, 0.809 out of [1158.76:1014.04] is 1131 and 1.0/0.809 =1.236. The high marked on 12/28,29 is 1130.38. So, the index movement deployed a ratio 0.809 (> 0.786) that gave the speculators an elusive hint.

Nov 14
666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]-->1227.07 [1.236]


Nov 28
From the FIB map shown below, the next down leg may encounter tough support zone in the range from 948 to 962.


Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.618

From 10/11/07 (1576.09) to 03/06/09 (666.79), there were 352 trading days.
Use ratio 0.618, 352 * 0.618 = 218 trading days, it is due on January 15-18, 2010. This particular Time Zone ratio could give a good hint where is the broad direction heads to.
01/15-18/10

Long PI dates [ refer to archive ( 1 ) ]

04/13/10
09/17/10

Astro

Bradley turn dates - http://forbestadvice...nDates2010.html
Due to the leading/lagging phenomenon, those “secondary” Bradley turn dates before/after the important turn date may not be ignored. An good example occurred in the late spring, 01/20-21, 02/8-9 were two secondary turn dates. It was till March 06 index marked a middle term low 666.79.
03/01/10
08/10/10

Saturn-Uranus opposition- http://www.astrology...turnuranus.html
04/26/10
07/23/10

The Crosses of Summer, 2010 - http://www.hermes3.net/2010.htm
07/30/10 T-Cross
08/06 /10 Grand Cross

(partial list)


Archive 2009

[1] Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM
SPX monthly outlook, December 2009 - snowflakes spinning in the wind
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=495227

[2] Oct 30 2009, 06:54 AM
SPX monthly outlook, November 2009 - Rhapsody of November
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=490051

[3] Sep 27 2009, 03:49 PM
SPX monthly outlook, October 2009 – The Hunt for Red October
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=484713

[4] Sep 7 2009, 01:46 PM Sep 5 2009, 10:44 AM
SPX monthly outlook, September 2009 - Vivid September
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=481638

Key quotes:

Sep 7 2009, 01:46 PM [4]
the wave structure since March low looks bullish.
I speculate there is a possibility we will see the Up wave bring the index to somewhere around 1122 to 1229

Oct 14 2009, 11:56 AM [3]
The overall wave looks bullish, the best outcome for bears is a consolidation process. Crash is a rare event. A very preliminary view for the next few months: If the pullback is not lower than 1034-1066, index might challenge 1158, and then 1229. There is some tough work for both bulls/bears in the range 1083-1132. The lower range support is 1000-1014 and 960

[stanley]

intraday high as of 01/7 1142.46

12/31 closing 1115.10
01/04 day low 1116.56

In the first session in 2010 Index moved above the pivot 1117 and set the tone. Now, Index is fast approaching the critical test date 01/15-18. (Fibnonacci Time zone 0.618).

- breaking 1144, the unrealized target 1158-1175 will be materialized.
where: 1169 = (1114-1029) + 1084, 1158 is the 1.0 wave target, 1175 is a FIB point
- if reversal takes place before breaching 1144, the critical support is 1117-1120.


large size

The low clusters seems towards April.
The dates to watch are:
01/15-18 Fibonacci time zone 0.618
01/27
02/23
03/01 Bradley Turn date
04/13 200 PI
......... Fibonacci time zone 0.786
04/26 No. 4 Saturn-Uranus opposition in 2008-2010

Archive
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Posted on: Dec 31 2009, 01:03 PM
January outlook in essence
SPX 1158 is an unrealized wave target (1158-1175). The resistance is 1132, 1144. The first line support moves up to 1103, then 1090, and 1064. The near term pivot is 1117

[stanley]

SPX Intraday low 1,129.25 @ this writing [01/20/10 12:24PM PST]
On the third attempt, index took out the secondary support 1131 marginally.
Technically speaking, index is still in the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618 time window, it was due on 01/15-19 [18 MLK date, market closed].
01/19 1,150.45
01/14 1,150.41
01/13 1,148.40
01/11 1,149.74
Refer to the chart shown below. 1151 is the mean value between 1144 and 1158.
A downward reversal before 1158 suggests the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618 could be a pivot (yet to be confirmed).
The coming test date is due on 01/27 +/-, the test result may give better visibility.


archive [posted in http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php]
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Jan 15 2010, 01:41 PM
Index made the second attempt on 1131 (after it climbed above 1131 on 01/06)
01/12 day low 1,131.77
01/15 day low 1,131.39
The direction remains in the mist. The next test day is 01/27 +/-.

Jan 12 2010, 12:36 PM
Index made an attempt on the secondary support 1131.

Jan 7 2010, 08:36 PM
the critical support is 1117-1120

[stanley]

Index marked the new high 1150.45 on 01/19 intraday. Then, it reversed down and marked an intraday low 1090.18; At this writing, index is back testing 1103 and plotting an intraday high 1,102.39.
Apparently, the Fibonacci time zone 0.618 is significant and showed up on time. As long as the back testing does not exceed 1132, a sustainable correction may be expected, and may extend well into April [04/13 - 04/26]. The trails in betwwen now & then is not easy to perceive, however, The coming test date 01/27 may give a picture how the trend line shifting trajectory looks like. The near term support & resistance were given in the archive shown below.


Archive
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Oct 22 2009, 03:49 PM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=488639
To be bearish, bears need to taking out the 1K mark. However, you can see there are not much nested zones in between 1100-1200; therefore, 1150 may well be bulls’ next assault target http://traders-talk....-1256254812.jpg

Dec 31 2009, 12:51 PM Post #1 in this thread
SPX 1158 is an unrealized wave target (1158-1175). The resistance is 1132, 1144. The first line support moves up to 1103, then 1090, and 1064. The near term pivot is 1117

[stanley]

SPX intraday low 1,078.46 @ this writing [11:53AM PST]

Index slips the toe; The lower rail of the zone 1083-1131 has been pricked shortly at this writing.
The Astro event [01/27, refer to post #1 in this thread] pretty much confirmed the downtrend, only if the bounce surmounts 1131/1132 will invalidate the status.

This is the closing post for SPX monthly outlook, January 2010