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#1 Islander

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 08:29 PM

A model

I was asked if I used models. Sometimes I do; I always look at this one, and a correlation on the dollar with other currency pairs. It is a habit, but it also gives me courage to be in or stay out and it is about 75% accurate on its clues.

If you just trade inverse to the dollar and stay in when the metal is above the 50MA is its not too bad start to planning trades. When I add the slightly more quantitative currency pairs data one gets a little lead time. In general when the dollar slips on other pairs it tends to decline on this chart about 1 TD later.

After watching the metals trade of years, I know the Quants on the hedges buy and sell gold as a simple first off-set to the buck. Not too sophisticated, not a bad algorithm first move.

Right now there is more going on in the metals than meets the eye. There are odd ball results from my ARIMA models which are usually as regular as the cat's visits.

Some caution is due because the market is confused over the dollar and something else that is not evident as yet.

Best, Islander

#2 SilentOne

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 10:47 PM

Some caution is due because the market is confused over the dollar and something else that is not evident as yet.


Yeah I'm very curious too what lies ahead. Something we can't see yet ...

Bradley_2010_Donald_Bradley.png

Bradley_2010_What_s_coming.png

Note in the chart above the last set of dates. 06/2008 was the secondary summer swing high (actual July) for PMs, and 12/2008 was the swing low (actual Nov) for the PM sector.

Note how 11/2009 was the recent PM top. Other dates in this chart that show up are: 3/2003 was an important low for PMs (memorable because I bought my first Krugers at $320 then), 4/2004 and 7/2005 double bottoms for the HUI at 165ish, 05/2006 was the May 2006 top for the HUI at 400.

Today we are in 3/2010 approaching what for PMs (bottom or top)? Does 08/2010 mean the same as 12/2008 was to 06/2008 ? The only reason why it gets my attention is how it stands out like a sore thumb based on 100 years of Bradley.

My cycle work would make much more sense to me if the HUI put in a major low on 08/2010 and then rallied to new alltime highs into 03/2012. But the way things have been going the last few months, it would not surprise me to see the reverse.
Bradley_Long_Term.png

So yeah I am watching very closely.

The last two charts are from Amanita. The first from the Bradley book I believe.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 17 March 2010 - 10:50 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#3 dougie

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 01:07 AM

john: armstrong basically favored the April High, August low a i recall FWIW

#4 senorBS

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 07:26 AM

Senor likes using the stock market correlation with the mining stocks as well, and yesterday had the Dow making a new high with new highs on NYSE over 600, which is flat out bullish as it's a clear new high in 52 weeks highs for this grande rally from last March and IMO means no top for a bueno length of time, and in fact confirms higher prices, how high I have no idea. I really do not like the stock market but I don't ignore simple, time tested, and in Senor's opinion in this case bullish evidence BSing away Senor

#5 dharma

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 09:41 AM

Senor likes using the stock market correlation with the mining stocks as well, and yesterday had the Dow making a new high with new highs on NYSE over 600, which is flat out bullish as it's a clear new high in 52 weeks highs for this grande rally from last March and IMO means no top for a bueno length of time, and in fact confirms higher prices, how high I have no idea. I really do not like the stock market but I don't ignore simple, time tested, and in Senor's opinion in this case bullish evidence

BSing away

Senor

i am w/you the broads are signaling blue skies, but something doesnt feel right. and as silent one points out the bradley looks dismal. i dont follow arch , but i came across this interview yesterday , he along w/every other astrologer is quite bearish in that time frame! and seeing the market up 15 out of the last 16 days is not healthy. if the broads do correct, then so will the metals, unless this time really is different. not something that i care to argue w/. @some point this year i do expect 1k to be tested and maybe even below that. this all could still be 1of 3, in which case 2 of 3 could offer a substantial correction. its all a process.
dharma

#6 tradermama

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 10:51 AM

Senor likes using the stock market correlation with the mining stocks as well, and yesterday had the Dow making a new high with new highs on NYSE over 600, which is flat out bullish as it's a clear new high in 52 weeks highs for this grande rally from last March and IMO means no top for a bueno length of time, and in fact confirms higher prices, how high I have no idea. I really do not like the stock market but I don't ignore simple, time tested, and in Senor's opinion in this case bullish evidence

BSing away

Senor

i am w/you the broads are signaling blue skies, but something doesnt feel right. and as silent one points out the bradley looks dismal. i dont follow arch , but i came across this interview yesterday , he along w/every other astrologer is quite bearish in that time frame! and seeing the market up 15 out of the last 16 days is not healthy. if the broads do correct, then so will the metals, unless this time really is different. not something that i care to argue w/. @some point this year i do expect 1k to be tested and maybe even below that. this all could still be 1of 3, in which case 2 of 3 could offer a substantial correction. its all a process.
dharma


Astrology is a roadmap and there are always 2 sides to look at something...What I like about Merriman is he isn't emphatic on direction as some astro/financial gurus. Here is his weekly column...this can go either way but he does present a focal point to pay attention too.



Last week was also significant because Venus ended its translation to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square on Thursday (March 3-11). It was bullish time, which suggests that this developing T-square may indeed coincide with a great rally before a reversal. We will get another clue this week, because now the Sun will make the same translation with first a conjunction to Uranus on St. Patrick’s Day (March 17), followed by an opposition to Saturn on March 21, and finally the square to Pluto on March 25. If that too coincides with rising equity prices, then I think it is quite possible this bull market could soar another 20+% by August.

But in the study of Financial Astrology, we look at these clusters as probable market reversals. The conjunction of Sun and Uranus on March 17 is especially potent in many financial markets. According to the studies published in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to trading Cycles,” this is a Level One (strongest) signature with an 83% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 14 trading days. Since we are rising into it, one might anticipate a primary cycle crest. On the political front, this time band (March 17-25) could be a rough period for many leaders—especially Leos, since the Sun rules Leo. If you are a Leo and if you are experiencing heavy opposition to your position, don’t be surprised. Your enemies will be in full view now and so will your leadership style. People don’t see things as you do, and conflicts are bound to arise if you and/or they don’t understand and accept these differences in a civil manner. It could get ugly if you or they go on the offensive. There are no winners when the views of either are forced onto the situation.


http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

I'm not calling direction..I'll leave the market do that. Last year I read too many astro people calling for doom and gloom..
Good Trading
TM

#7 johngeorge

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 11:05 AM

Today so far dollar up: http://online.wsj.co...c_topnav_2_3012

Gold down only $1: http://www.kitco.com...s/livegold.html

Hmmmmm!

Good trading to all.
Peace
johngeorge