140 replies to this topic

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

09/30/2012 Fibo-Nacy

On Sep 14, 2012 the S&P500 index marked an intraday high 1,474.51. It was one trading day earlier than the speculated date 09/17, and then the index reversed lower. On Sep 26, index marked an intraday low 1,430.53, just 0.33 points lower than the local retracements 0.236 at 1430.86 out of [1481.56-1266.74]. This was a very small retracement, not an effective confirmation action to say that we have seen a middle term peak. In addition, bouncing off 1430.53 provides an evidence that the wave point 1481.56, in deed, is an inflection point.

Short term - Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (was met on 09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 netrual

Middle term - Upper rail based on wave set [(1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74)]
0.618 1481.56 gate to the 1500-1600 plateau
0.707 1512.50
0.786 1539.96
1.000 1614.35 a possible expanding diagonal intersection point

Looks like the S&P500 index will challenge the 1400-1374 area first, from there, it may initiate an onset to 1481.56-1512.50 area.

chart date 09/23/12


Long term

on lower rail [1481.56-666.79]
0.5 at 1074.18 +/-

on upper rail
The overall wave set looks bullish. In order not to shock bears too much, I put a bullish chart here .The Elliott wave theory is a branch of pattern recognition, it extrapolates the possible terminal points according to the Fibonacci ratios, the whole process is supposed to be ‘emotionless and objective”. A retracement below 1312.17 (subjected to change) negates (invalidates) the afore mentioned bullish scenario

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

10/04/2012 Fibo-Nacy

The bullishness could be prolonged just a little longer; I am watching the actions around the pivot 1481.56.
- Sep 16 2012, 03:18 PM

The ping pong game between 1430.86 and 1481.56 could be resolved in the middle of the next week, refer to the following two Bradley Siderograph.
Bradley Siderograph with the middle term - http://www.robertew....dley/br2012.jpg
Bradley Siderograph - http://forbestadvice...bradley2012.GIF

Wave routes

Overall looks bullish.
There are a few wave routes in the field, let me add (2) & (3) to the list.
The wave structure can be visualized in the bottom chart. The wave count is intentionally omitted.

(1) [ (1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74)]
0.618 1481.56 gate to the 1500-1600 plateau
0.707 1512.50
0.786 1539.96
1.000 1614.35 a possible expanding diagonal intersection point

(2) [ (1370.58-666.79) (1074.77) ]
0.618 1509.71

(3) [ (1422.38-1266.74) (1266.74) ]
1.382 1481.83
1.414 1486.85
1.500 1500.20
1.618 1518.57

Fibonacci retracements

intraday [1481.56-1430.86]
0.618 1462.19 (10/04 1463.14)

Short term - [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

[1614.35-1074.77]
0.500 1344.56 middle to long term neutral point

Long term
lower rail [1481.56-666.79] 0.5 at 1074.18 +/-
upper rail http://forexrainbow....91989141043.jpg

Chart highlighted 1st/2nd resistance level and supports.
The short term neutral point is 1374.15, middle to long term neutral point is 1344.56. refer to the following tables

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

10/14/2012 Fibo-Nacy

“The ping pong game between 1430.86 and 1481.56 could be resolved in the middle of the next week”
- Oct 4 2012, 12:35 PM

“This is the first attempt on 1426.96. The overall layout looks like this: intraday 1^st level support 1426.96, pivot 1421.77 before 2^nd support 1416.58. 1^st resistance 1437.34, 2^nd resistance 1443.77”
- Oct 12 2012, 10:32 AM

[ for longer term time frame outlook - please refer to the prior post ]

Perhaps the 50 SMA served as a damper, the Index moved downward but it was not deeper enough and not fast enough timewise. Without seeing downward acceleration, it is still a consolidation action. The inflection point 1481.56 and the big mark 1500 is still out there.

I have posted this chart 10/12 in the main board. Let’s watch the intraday support and resistance via the following two charts.

Short term - [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

supports - update chart with minor modification. Pivot 1421.79 before the next support 1416.60.
There is a good correlation between the intraday wave Fibonacci points and the short term wave retracements.
Too obvious to previal, lady Market may make a detour.


resistance 1435.54, 1444.73


Thanks to MultiHoster for free image hosting

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

10/21/2012 Fibo-Nacy

A colorful season is upon us again
River is flowing the colorful Autumn ( Michigan Upper Peninsula - Bond Falls ):
http://farm9.staticf...720d1999e_o.jpg

hunting your trail under the foliage
http://farm9.staticf...372026c1b_o.jpg

creditor & more images: http://bbs.wenxuecit...phy/925457.html

Review

Oct 14 2012, 07:28 PM:
“Pivot 1421.79 before the next support 1416.60. There is a good correlation between the intraday wave Fibonacci points and the short term wave retracements. Too obvious to prevail, lady Market may make a detour”

As it turned out these were gyrational movements
Oct 15, 2012 1,428.75 open
Oct 18, 2012 1,464.02 high
Oct 19, 2012 1,433.19 close

(1) Cycle

[a] Long PI

Aug 30 2012, 08:18 AM:
“ Long PI - On September 17/18, 2012, it is the 2000 * PI TDS from the October 19, 1987 Black Monday.
Others notable Long PI dates are:
1000.7 * PI from 10/19/1987 to 03/24/2000 (3144 TDS)
1603.9 * PI from 10/19/1987 to 10/11/2007 (5039 TDS) ”

That date arrived one trading day earlier. There are 6281 TDS (= 1999.3 * PI TDS) from 10/19/1987 to 09/14/2012 .
When index drives below 1312.71 the high observed on 09/14 at 1474.51 is confirmed to be a middle term high and the 0.786 retracement from 1481.56 to 1266.74 is 1312.71. One may use different Fibonacci ratio as the gauge.

[b] 108/377 TDS

The 18 month cycle is equivalent to 377 TDS cycle and 377 TDS = 314 TDS + 63 TDS.
The following chart assumes there are symmetrical harmonic cycles before & after the High 09/14. one took place on 06/04, the other is projected in between December and January/13. At this moment, this is a fearless speculation. We can assume there is a middle term low that is 63, 72, 81, 90 TDS from 09/14.



(2) Moving Averages

The simple moving averages lines displace from the shorter one 18 SMA to longer one 216 SMA.
Without interleaving each other, the S&P500 is not a weak performing index. By the time the 18SMA penetrates the 50/54SMA, I guess there will be good support around 200/216 SMA, 1374.15/1364 (still ascending).


The weakness can be found in S&P spiders XME and XLK
XME - Metals & Mining. major holding in http://finance.yahoo...q/hl?s=xme&ql=1
XLK - Technology AAPL MSFT IBM T GOOG .. etc http://finance.yahoo...?s=XLK Holdings


(3) Wave/Retracements

(i) [ (1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74) ]
0.618 1481.56 gate to the 1500-1600 plateau
0.707 1512.50
0.786 1539.96
1.000 1614.35 a possible expanding diagonal intersection point

(ii) [ (1370.58-666.79) (1074.77) ]
0.618 1509.71

(iii) [ (1422.38-1266.74) (1266.74) ]
1.382 1481.83
1.414 1486.85
1.500 1500.20
1.618 1518.57

Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

Supports: Pivot 1421.45 before the next support 1412.04
Wave structure looks bullish. Unless index dips below 1312.71, recent pullback could be consolidation.

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

Your election our future

10/25/2012 by Fibo-Nacy

“If we wait for the moment when everything, absolutely everything is ready, we shall never begin.”
- Ivan Turgenev ( http://en.wikipedia....i/Ivan_Turgenev )

intraday/local wave
[1474.51- 1430.53][1464.02 ~]
1.236 ~ 1409.66
1.333 ~ 1405.39 (10/25 1405.14, in progress, 4/3=1.333)
1.382 ~ 1403.24
1.414 ~ 1401.83 ( sqrt(2) )
1.500 ~ 1398.05
1.618 ~ 1392.86
2.000 ~ 1376.06

Local retracements
[1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

Moving averages as of 10/25
200SMA 1376.11
50SMA 1433.58

Two observations:
[A] There are 72 TDs from June/04 (low 1266.74) to September 14 (high 1471.51).
72 is one of the King Wen's sequence: [81,126,63,108,90,99,54,117,72] ^{reference 2}

[B} There are 29 TDs from September 14 to October 25
According to the Eight hexagrams (1,2,27,28,29,30,61,62) in the King Wen sequence, ^{reference 3} there are two special pairs (27,28)(29,30) fit what the current index movement length. This implies an inversion. A possible bounce off from a low point is imminent. Counting from 09/14, 63 TDs (and 72, 81, 90 TDs) will map into December 12 / January 13; One may assume the possible bounce off will persist till the time zone 12/22 – January 27/28; One may also assume the bounce off will be followed by a down slope till the afore mentioned December/January time zone. The key depends on a 'minor' turn date zone. Before the major turn date 12/22, there are two minor Bradley turn dates: 11/01, and 11/14. ^{reference 1} ‘Coincidently’, there is an election in between 11/01 and 11/14. Do you think the index is moving into an ‘indiscernible’ but pivotal territory?

“Nature cares nothing for logic, our human logic: she has her own, which we do not recognize and do not acknowledge until we are crushed under its wheel”
- Ivan Turgenev

references
1 Bradley Siderograph
2012 http://forbestadvice...bradley2012.GIF
2013 http://www.robertew....dley/br2013.jpg

2 The 108 in King Wen's Sequence
By J.M. Berger
http://iching.egople.../hidden108.html

3 The explanation of King Wen’s order of the 64 hexagrams.
by D.H.Van den Berghe
http://www.fourpilla...pdf/kingwen.pdf

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

Decoding DeMark’s Call

10/27/12 Fibo-Nacy

[A] Review

Oct 25 2012, 10:05 AM
intraday/local wave
[1474.51- 1430.53][1464.02 ~]
1.236 ~ 1409.66
1.333 ~ 1405.39 ( 10/25 1405.14, 4/3=1.333 )
1.382 ~ 1403.24 ( 10/26 1403.28 )
1.414 ~ 1401.83 ( sqrt(2) )
1.500 ~ 1398.05
1.618 ~ 1392.86
2.000 ~ 1376.06

Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 ( 09/26, 1430.53 )
0.324 1412.04 ( 1.618/5 = 0.3236 )
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.404 1394.67 ( 1.618/4 = 0.404 )
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

Looks like the intraday/local wave set [1474.51- 1430.53][1464.02 ~] is closely reflected index’s movement. For example: 1403.24 = 1464.02 - 1.382 * (1474.51 – 1430.53). This is a simple way engaging the Elliott wave & Fibonacci without labeling the count.

In essence, S&P index is testing the 1400 Mark, the regular 0.382 retracement point. The obvious major support is 1374-1376, the resistance is 1421.45, 1426.18-1430.86. On 10/25 intraday, index tested the resistance 1421.45 ( = (1430.82+1412.04)/2 ) , actual 1,421.12.

Oct 21 2012, 09:59 PM

Aug 30 2012, 08:18 AM:
“ Long PI - On September 17/18, 2012, it is the 2000 * PI TDS from the October 19, 1987 Black Monday.
Others notable Long PI dates are:
1000.7 * PI from 10/19/1987 to 03/24/2000 (3144 TDS)
1603.9 * PI from 10/19/1987 to 10/11/2007 (5039 TDS) ”

That date arrived one trading day earlier. There are 6281 TDS (= 1999.3 * PI TDS) from 10/19/1987 to 09/14/2012 .
When index drives below 1312.71 the high observed on 09/14 at 1474.51 is confirmed to be a middle term high and the 0.786 retracement from 1481.56 to 1266.74 is 1312.71. One may use different Fibonacci ratio as the gauge.

The high 1474.51 observed on 09/14 requires confirmation.

[B] Decoding DeMark’s Call

[B.1] DeMark’s Call
DeMark Sees S&P 500 Index Peaking Around 1,480 Before Tumble
By Lu Wang on October 24, 2012
http://www.businessw...-percent-tumble
http://www.bloomberg...-12-tumble.html

After assulting 1480 (1,478.33 to 1,485.33), he made call that the S&P 500 will head for a potential decline of 12 percent to 17 percent. for more detail numbers, please refer to the above link.

[B.2] Bounce & High point/Low points

Bounce:
Prior post described why there will be a possible bounce. To be observed.

High points:

- In my older posts, the inflection point 1481.36 appeared as earlier as 08/26 in [url="http://<a%20href="http://forexrainbow.com/images/69176884266993498166.jpg"%20target="_blank">http://forexrainbow....3498166.jpg</a>"] in this char [/url].
it is the 0.618 from wave set (-1-), [(1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74)]. There are also close match in wave set (-2-) and (-3-). It is hard to say index is taking which route beforehand

- DeMark’s 1478.33 is very close to 1478.79, the 0.893 retracement from all time high/low [1576.09-666.79]. (1.786/2=0.893)
- DeMark’s 1485.33 is very close to 1486.85, the 1.414 wave extension in wave set (-3-)

Low points
DeMark projected S&P l will head for a potential decline of 12 percent to 17 percent

12% 1229.69 = 1481.56 * 0.88, 1230.16 0.618 [1481.56:1074.77]
17% 1303.77 = 1481.56 * 0.88, 1305.41 sqrt(3}/4

(-1-) [ (1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74)]
0.618 1481.56 gate to the 1500-1600 plateau
0.707 1512.50
0.786 1539.96
1.000 1614.35 a possible expanding diagonal intersection point

(-2-) [ (1370.58-666.79) (1074.77) ]
0.577 1481.10 ( sqrt(3)/3 )
0.618 1509.71

(-3-) [ (1422.38-1266.74) (1266.74) ]
1.333 1474.26 (09/14 1474.51, 4/3 = 1.333)
1.382 1481.83
1.414 1486.85
1.500 1500.20
1.618 1518.57

Local retracements [1474.51-1266.74]
0.236 1426.18
0.382 1396.29
0.404 1391.78
0.500 1372.13

retracement from all time high/low [1576.09-666.79]
0.893 1478.79 (1.786/2=0.893)

[C] Overall

The overall wave structure looks bullish: 1481.56 is an inflection point to see 1500-1600 plateau. The short term neutral point is 1374.15, middle to long term neutral point is 1344.56.

Bearish:
Wave structure turns bearish when pullback dips below the confirmation point 1312.71.
Long term lower rail [1481.56-666.79], 0.5 at 1074.18 +/-

Bullish:
in this chart



Disclaimer: Any and all material on this sub thread is for informational and academic discussion purposes only, and is not for financial advice.

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

11/08/2012 Fibo-Nacy

The bounce-off 1400 Mark had been speculated correctly in this chart

Oct 25 2012, 10:05 AM
chart: http://forexrainbow....81654847776.jpg

According to the Eight hexagrams (1,2,27,28,29,30,61,62) in the King Wen sequence, there are two special pairs (27,28)(29,30) fit what the current index movement length. This implies an inversion. A possible bounce-off from a low point is imminent. Counting from 09/14, 63 TDs (and 72, 81, 90 TDs) will map into December 12 / January 13;

One may assume the possible bounce-off will persist till the time zone 12/22 – January 27/28. One may also assume the bounce off will be followed by a down slope till the afore mentioned December/January time zone.

The key depends on a 'minor' turn date zone. Before the major turn date 12/22, there are two minor Bradley turn dates: 11/01, and 11/14. ‘Coincidently’, there is an election in between 11/01 and 11/14. Do you think the index is moving into an ‘indiscernible’ but pivotal territory?

In retrospect, the bounce off 1400 only persisted 5 trading days and ended on 11/02 at 434.27 11/02. It seems DeMark’s call 1,478.33 to 1,485.33 is fading. However, there is no needs to change the cycle speculation chart. Let me tabularize those possible terminal dates (for the low), [+/-]
12/18 - 63
01/02 - 72
01/15 - 81
01/29 - 90


Local retracements [1474.51-1266.74]
0.236 1426.18
0.382 1396.29
0.404 1391.78
0.500 1372.13

Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

intraday

wait for trend reversal confirmation


We closed the Crafting the rhythms on Mar 24 2012. After a few friends’ suggestions (due to mail chain attacks ... etc). We opened the Dancing to the rhythm on Aug 30 2012; Stanley will complete his contract this coming December. By that time frame, we will retire completely, and it is a very good reason to close this thread.
Trading is a series of never ending story, I made a summary: Balance between the short term tactics & long term core strategy, aim on being right & making profit, avoid bias, be neutral, maintain good emotional intelligence, be happy.

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

11/12/2012 Fibo-Nacy

[A] Projection for Trough Date

Even though the Peak ^{note 1} observed on 09/14 has not been confirmed. I stick on the thought process which assumes there will be two roughly symmetrical (in time) low points in between an Apex. Oftentimes than sometimes, the thought process is more important than just put out dates (& numbers), so let me repost some older charts:

chart (1) Aug 30 2012, 08:18 AM http://forexrainbow....13736247791.jpg
chart (2) Sep 30 2012, 07:44 PM http://forexrainbow....95781912674.jpg

377 TDs (Trading day) = 18 calendar months = 314 TDs + 63TDs ( chart (2) )
where:
314 = 100 * PI = 3 * 105TDS cycle,
377 is one of the Fibonacci numbers, and 2 * PI * 60 = 377.

Stanley and I have attempted for a while ... so far ... We still cannot come out a reliable method to decipher the relation between 63TDs + 314 TDs & 377 TDs, The first guess is that there are 3 cycles each one with an ideal length of (100 * PI)/3 TDs plus the 63 TDs together forming a 18 calendar month cycle, the real length drifts around. In addition, the 63TDs may not synchronize with the (100 * PI)/3 TDs cycle.
let me put the possible Trough dates as follows: ( these are sequence in King Wen’s sequence ^{note 2}, multiplier of 9 ), +/-
12/18 - 63
01/02 - 72
01/15 - 81
01/29 - 90
These dates correlate with the mythical Bradley Siderograph Turn dates
2012 http://forbestadvice...bradley2012.GIF
2013 http://www.robertew....dley/br2013.jpg

Note 1: I made peak date speculation on 08/30 in this post, (3)(4)
Note 2: refer to the reference via this link (10/25)



[B] Magnitude

Oct 21 2012, 09:59 PM
“By the time the 18SMA penetrates the 50/54SMA, I guess there will be good support around 200/216 SMA, 1374.15/1364 (still ascending)”

We got 1373.03 on November 9, 2012, The following two local frame retracements nailed it nicely. We will need a few more trading days to determine whether 1362-1374 is an inflection zone. For the speculation purpose, I enumerated a few more Fib points ( To be updated ). There is a multiple overlap around 1310-1313. I guess it is an important number, In prior post, I mentioned the movements below 1312 is in the bear territory. In post #1, the very first post in this thread also discussed the significance of 1310. If You want explore even lower numbers, I made a chart for your quick reference. I labeled the 0.500 retracement point for different reference frames, You may break down into more steps.

Local retracements [1474.51-1266.74]
0.236 1426.18
0.382 1396.29
0.404 1390.47 (1/618/4)
0.500 1372.13
0.539 1362.45 (1.618/3)
0.618 1346.11
0.707 1327.62 (sqrt(2)/2)
0.786 1311.20

Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86 (09/26, 1430.53)
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

middle term frame [1474.51-1074.77]
0.382 1321.81
0.404 1312.82 (1.618/4)
0.500 1274.64

middle term frame [1474.51-666.79]
0.236 1283.89

Large frame all time high/low [1576.09-666.79]
0.786 1381.48
0.707 1309.60
0.618 1228.74
0.500 1121.44




PS: Stanley will complete his contract this coming December. By that time frame, we will retire completely, and it is a very good reason to close this thread.

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

11/15/2012 Fibo-Nacy

Oct 21 2012, 09:59 PM
When index drives below 1312.71 the high observed on 09/14 at 1474.51 is confirmed to be a middle term high and the 0.786 retracement from 1481.56 to 1266.74 is 1312.71. One may use different Fibonacci ratio as the gauge

Oct 27 2012, 01:47 PM
Wave structure turns bearish when pullback dips below the confirmation point 1312.71.
Long term lower rail [1481.56-666.79], 0.5 at 1074.18 +/-

Nov 12 2012, 11:29 PM
There is a multiple overlap around 1310-1313. I guess it is an important number, In prior post, I mentioned the movements below 1312 is in the bear territory.

Chart indicated the actual Fibonacci points (black color) vs. projections (purple color). I also put those unrealized projections (blue color) in the chart; The action around 1310-1313 might determine how is the Zigzags trajectory is distributed. The best guess fibonacci points (lower than 1300) will be listed when it is necessary. You may refer to the prior post for a few rough numbers and possible dates.

Local retracements [1474.51-1266.74]
0.618 1346.11
0.786 1311.20

Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

middle term frame [1474.51-1074.77]
0.382 1321.81
0.404 1312.82 (1.618/4)
0.500 1274.64

Large frame all time high/low [1576.09-666.79]
0.786 1381.48
0.707 1309.60



PS: Stanley will complete his contract this coming December. By that time frame, we will retire completely, and it is a very good reason to close this thread.

[fibo-nacy]

Dancing to the rhythm

11/19/2012 Fibo-Nacy

Nov 12 2012, 11:29 PM
There is a multiple overlap around 1310-1313. I guess it is an important number, In prior post, I mentioned the movements below 1312 is in the bear territory..

Index retraced slightly deeper than 0.618 retracement and then it reversed up; Chart gave more subtle view than just a retracement point, it annotated the wave relationship & how to calculate the terminal point 1343.35 (in retrospect).
You can see 1344.56 at the lower corner in this chart , no clear picture yet, for record purpose only.
Use [1434.27-1343.35] as an intraday reference frame, 0.404 (=1.618/4) retracement point is 1380.04. 0.5 is at 1388.81. .. etc.

Short term - [1481.56-1266.74]
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit
0.500 1374.15 short term neutral
0.618 1348.80
0.786 1312.71 bear territory

Local retracements [1474.51-1266.74]
0.324 1407.30 (1.618/5)
0.382 1396.29
0.405 1390.47 (1.618/4)
0.500 1372.13
0.539 1362.45 (1.618/3)
0.618 1346.11
0.707 1327.62 (sqrt(2)/2)
0.764 1315.77 (1-0.236)
0.786 1311.20