www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast
Tuesday April 13, 2010
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 13 on 150 net declines
NASDAQ COMP + 8 on 100 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
In the early going, the market was down, but after about an hour, buying came in and it was mostly up for the remainder of the session. This is a pattern that the market has been following for months. Buy any dip, even those lasting an hour or two.
The initial weakness was partly because of strength in the greenback and partly because of Alcoa's somewhat disappointing earnings after Monday's close.
But then traders began to focus on Intel's earnings that were to be released after the close. Intel has a history of beating estimates and indeed, that is exactly what happened. The stock was up in after hours trading. I believe we could make money once per quarter just buying Intel the day before earnings and selling the day after.
But sometimes, great earnings from Intel can mark a short term high water mark. As the chart below shows, Will it happen this time? We should at least be on the alert. There has been a lot of anticipation.
The greenback dropped, but so did gold, silver and crude oil. Copper was higher and bonds rallied again.
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BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay in cash on Wednesday.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The trade deficit was $39.7 billion, more than the expected $39.0 billion. On Wednesday we get the CPI, retail sales and crude oil inventories.
OTHER MARKETS
We're on a sell for bonds as of March 24.
We're on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of March 24.
We're on a buy for gold as of April 7.
We're on a buy for silver as of April 1.
We're on a buy for Copper as of Feb. 11.
We're on a buy for crude oil as of April 1.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron's, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation's best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.
Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were ranked ranked # 1 for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. At the end of 2006 we slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we were ranked # 5.
TODD MARKET FORECAST
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