4 replies to this topic

[arbman]

We can completely delete the previous topic, sorry for the confusion.

I think the cycles are more or less looking similar to my previous guess.

Most recently, the 4, 8, 16 week cycle harmonics have been tracking around 17-18, 33-35, 66-70 trading days. However, the breadth momentum has been diverging in this rally so a reset closer to 70-74 trading days is possible. I expect short term lows to be in on Monday and a retest of the highs with possibly higher highs and then a swift sell off into early May for the 16 wk cycle lows.

The lows generally project for the second week of May, but for a complete breadth reset, it can get extended until the third week of May. There is a major support around 1170 area now. The highest risk here is the breadth momentum which has been significantly diverging with the recent highs and a cascading decline would target 1120-1130 gap zone area, if 1170 support breaks down as well. The upside is on the other hand is quite limited to 1220-1230 target for the short term until the 16 wk cycle lows which are visibly coming on both SPX and RUT.

For the intermediate term, I still expect this 16 wk cycle low to produce another high until early June at least. However, April may end up being a doji, it should not mark the top though yet.

[arbman]

The topic title should say "... due around May 13-18."

[punter]

I think the cycles are more or less looking similar to my previous guess.

I expect short term lows to be in on Monday and a retest of the highs with possibly higher highs and then a swift sell off into early May for the 16 wk cycle lows.

I have the same conclusion on my work so far except that I cannot tell when the highs will occur.

[qqqqtrdr]

Using a BDI cycles, I have a low on May 7th, and high on June 5th.

[arbman]

IF, a big IF, this parabolic rally continues by blowing off the tops later next week in response to Apple and Microsoft later next week, the chances are the lows will come early around May 7-10 and we will most likely see several weeks of upward topping pattern... I expect the trend to slow down from here and then breadth cycle to reset closer to the historic patterns, in other words, the cycle periods to elongate once again. The ideal would have been as late as May 18-20, but I think the trend is fast enough to support, in other words, I doubt the participants will let the trend get weaken so much yet. They will come in during a weakness into May and buy the market back up... So, I am thinking the second week of May is the ideal cycle low around May 13-18 or so...