www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast
Wednesday April 21, 2010
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 8 on 350 net advances
NASDAQ COMP + 4 on 50 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bearish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
So far the April 15 high is holding. Today, the market had some pretty decent news such as blockbuster earnings from Apple to help, but still struggled. Health care stocks were mostly down, but earnings overall continued to be better than expected.
When good news fails to move the market, we have to take notice. Although it could be a temporary affair, we will stick by our short term bearish stance until unless we see new rally highs, especially in the advance decline line.
Earnings from Ebay and Amgen caused those stocks to move lower in after hours trading and this caused some selling in the stock index futures. Our best estimate is that Thursday will be a down session.
In the meantime, the monthly charts remain quite overbought. As you can see when 4 month RSI gets this overbought (arrows), we tend to get a decline of a few weeks.
The dollar was again higher, but this didn’t stop gold, silver and copper from also moving up. Crude oil was down on higher inventories and bonds advanced sharply.
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BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Thursday.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Oil inventories were higher by 1.9 million barrels, better than last week’s loss of 2.2 million. On Thursday we get the PPI, jobless claims and existing home sales.
OTHER MARKETS
We’re on a sell for bonds as of March 24.
We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of March 24.
We’re on a buy for gold as of April 7.
We’re on a buy for silver as of April 1.
We’re on a buy for Copper as of Feb. 11.
We’re on a buy for crude oil as of April 1.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.
Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were ranked ranked # 1 for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. At the end of 2006 we slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we were ranked # 5.
TODD MARKET FORECAST
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