Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for Monday May 17, 2010:
Good weekend!
Extraordinary complexity . . . to the financial scene is precisely what we forecast a week ago to occur: first a snapback from the washout ‘flash crash’ of that Thursday; a couple days of indecision (we actually suggested standing aside the S&P after the lift was where it needed to be; and there was no particular further upside prospect as we stated); and then we issue (on Thursday morning above the Wed. high at S&P 1170) a ‘crash alert’, which didn’t mean we had to ‘crash’ per se, but that conditions capable of producing wild volatility had returned. At the highs, while others were proclaiming it safe to invest again or marginalizing the very real concerns, we did a solid sell signal.
Certainly; we didn’t get a ‘flash crash’ this Friday; perhaps the HFT crowd turned-off a few robotic computers, so as not to further inflame the ire of the Washing regulators. Serious; that may be the bearish daily alternative; especially since there was no basis to anticipate the arguing and fragmented EU from staging another ‘past is prologue’ event over the weekend (you never know for sure; but there was no hint of it like the prior week, when we had fabulous downside gains; stepped aside, and then put them back on essentially at Thursday’s highs..really don’t know how it could be any better).
If anything we think there is greater political fragmentation and lesser motivation to in fact follow-through on last week’s eurozone commitments by their leaders. Germany is probably the best example; following humiliating concession in-front of the French (at least in the eyes of much of their body-politic, who are appalled at these bailouts).
(I discuss this pattern a bit in the pre-close video attached; even though we didn’t get a complete meltdown at the close; as may actually set-it-up [portion redacted in as is unfair to members to explore further here]. The interesting part of the coming week will be how the foregoing acts into a nominal Expiration. I doubt that changes macro patterns unless of course a market ‘crashes’ briefly first, as the video ‘odds’ outline).
On top of that, for the first time this year, we essentially encouraged staying short the S&P from Thursday morning’s high overnight into Friday, which is not how we usually handle it. That was a good move, plus for those willing, given that minimal shifts are a likelihood ahead of Monday’s opening; we anticipate further downside continuations.
Sure, we have California after the close Friday delivering the budget crunching that of course we expected; and we have a Muni Bond swap issue that nobody explores real keenly, but is not at all irrelevant either for investors, or even the issuing agencies. At the same time there are the concerns about ‘trading rules’ that (detailed to members).
Some will argue that smoothes the markets, but aside quiet days that’s a crock for the most part. Actually it perpetuated the grind higher beyond normal technicals or of course realistic fundamentals; plus, it triggers a fast-paced liquidation when things go the other way. That’s exactly why we anticipated two weeks ago as a ‘keyhole exit’.
Clearly . . . the only people who think this general selling is overdone, do not look at charts or have any historical perspective. Those who do not think this is extraordinary in terms of implications; or believe that Euro disintegration is not a concern, probably embrace that (again) overly optimistic perspective. We advise much more discipline; in addition to emphasizing that ‘cash is not trash’ and we said that while bullish on the U.S. Dollar ALL year (rightly so), while warning the crowding into the Euro was an accident forthcoming (we were writing about ‘sovereign debt’ risks weeks prior to the grasping of the issue by the mass media or even the financial media primary outlets).
If anything, besides ‘cash not being trash’ there’s risk of Europeans seriously running from ‘Eurotrash’ (no offense intended to gypsies) into not only the Dollar, but a rising pressure to disengage certain countries from the Euro. (Balance, including Gold, will be reserved in fairness to ingerletter.com members.)
We have explored most of this every day this week; and I’m energized if wore-out just a bit from what was about as perfect a trading week as feasible (calling the initial rally in advance, a day or so of ‘stand-aside’ at midweek, and then Thursday short right at the highs; plus maintaining it subsequently). Plus consistently we’ve warned to exit all the major Financials; in anticipation that they would have trouble, as would techs too. If this flawless pattern continues; Sunday night will open down and into early Monday.
So let’s summarize just a few key areas without detail again (they’re available for new members in the archives), before the 2 weekend videos. In this case I have a pretty good idea about next week’s probable pattern, but will delve into that a bit only in the video; and strive to rest my fingers by doing more video and less text next week. In a final thought; remember what I said last week about revisiting the ‘Flash Crash’ low, and whether or not that was some sort of ‘error’ or harbinger of just a few days later.
A mindset ‘tone’ . . . that underpins the comeback from last week’s ‘flash crash’, is (or was since we said this was ‘hanging by a thread’ and went to a ‘crash alert’ mode early Thursday morning on a first rebound rally above Wed.’s high).. very interesting.
It’s interesting because the perception that we’ll ‘never see another bear market’ has it seems returned to some thinking out there; a sentiment that often prevails before a break occurs yet again. That’s why Wed. night I said they were ‘pouring gasoline on a fire’, and about to ‘crest’ a hill before going down the other side quite soon. Earlier I have shared comparisons with the 1929 crash or beyond experiences; mostly just to denote ‘why’ we could not replicate all of that, because most of the important banks were kept open, and of course these days we have the FDIC to calm the public, who does increasingly ‘get it’, which took time, but may be a great thing to save freedom in America in the fullness of time (do you get the feeling some in government or even media would like to ‘dumb-down’ the news; as innocuous, even if human-interest type stories, tend to be featured instead of investigative analysis of key economic issues).
It’s because there’s something else we pointed-out back in the 2007-2008 semi-panic situation, as led into the eventual market collapse; but that was and apparently still is a method of ‘how’ you recreate the confidence of stability, while the truth is ‘fragility’.
In 1929, as was the case I noted last week in 1987 (without expanding too much on a psychological aspect of why we warned in August of that year that the break was just a preview of coming attractions), bullish enthusiasm had overcome the previous prior ‘flash crash’ (allusion to last week) dips in the market: Indeed the temporary breaks in the market which preceded the crash of 1929, and also in 1987, were serious trials of stamina, for those who had declined accepting the reality of unsustainable moves, or instead accepted what I called then (a type of fantasy about market internal stability).
The point being that in all these environments, without making this a cliché; the U.S. economy was increasingly deteriorating (relative to the increase in debt service and so on as would be the case today; ie: relativity of a modest recovery to rising deficits), and underlying fundamentals were more or less ‘unsound’. That’s why we addressed the implied risk of shorter durations to fund our rollover Treasury Auctions, and a risk that entails. Now everyone will see it. Technicians like to say markets fully ‘anticipate’ fundamentals. Not always will be my point; because there are often powerful forces arrayed to defer this ‘coming to grips’ with reality, until they can’t pull the wool (more).
What’s occurring can be summed-up by saying that the economy, domestically and in Europe too, is fundamentally unsound; while the media parades ‘experts’ saying that even Europe is sound. Nobody talks about the multiplier effect -of our debt servicing- bringing forward the ‘day of reckoning; nobody suggests a survey of Germans to see if they would like to extricate themselves from the Euro; and nobody summarizes the market by saying that the HFT moves by a handful of professionals masks the reality that we are and will increasingly face. The day-to-day euphoria (is critiqued further).
While I am definitely not a superbear, I am not oblivious to poor economic intelligence that we’ve all seen (and we warned of in 2007 too) from the rating agencies among at least some others. I am not oblivious to the incredible (reserved for our members only in fairness). My goodness; that’s why I take the time to do what I do; and while 20/20 hindsight is precise; forward looking is at best an art more than it is purely a science.
Bottom line: important tops are characterized by wild swings amidst great turbulence. In reality this market has been hanging by a thread; and our admonition of a resumed ‘crash alert’ to our MarketCast members last Thurs morning (idea of outside-down-day semi-collapse session characteristics; emphasizing taking-aboard near the high Thursday morning new bearish positions), was right on-the-money. Tomorrow (that’s this past Friday) they’ll try hard to not pull the trigger on a further plunge, but will not be able to abort it, in front of Monday which will face substantial nervousness over proposed trading rules. (All has been realized and evolves in a continuation pattern.)
The prevailing wisdom is that ‘strong governments’ (here or abroad) must remain for years to come; with the needs in a heavy debt environment and as climate change is also an issue. That (at least in the United States and the UK as you just saw) is not a ‘cast in stone’ interpretation. As a matter of fact, we are unaware of big governments having a history of fiscal responsibility and dealing with these issues; though they all claim the capability. Domestically even Republicans are being thrown-out of office it appears; and we all know why. This is a grassroots effort (by those marginalized by the Administration who proclaimed a desire for ‘change’) in every part of America not so much to espouse (let’s hope not) radical ideas of the right or the left, but simply a return to centrist governance. Regan was responsible; Bill Clinton actually was good from a fiscal perspective, whether one liked some of his other politics or not. That’s in this case an effort to note this is not about Republicans or Democrats, but about how much we need fiscal responsibility. In the old days we got that from both sides of the aisle sometimes; whether conservative Democrats or moderate Republicans. This is the ‘populist revolt’ we have discussed, and it should not be marginalized by our big politicians but embraced for citizens taking the interest in important civic affairs now.
I’ll delve into this more via the video a bit; plus have a further new update on Pure Bioscience (speculative; and acting great); after parts of prior reports are reiterated:
Greece was and is just a microcosm of the debt morass
In essence this confirms the underlying factors we’ve warned of; that Greece was just a symbolic snapshot of the overwhelming ‘sovereign debt’ issues across Europe, and that many other peripheral EU members and banks are saddled with nonperforming if not simply unmarketable bonds (unless governments step-in and do the buying). This initial relief doesn’t address the funded assets quality (as written last Monday; more).
Homeward Bound
Few Americans yet realize that even just the Greek bailout is partially U.S. funded (it is a fact that 17% of the IMF funding is U.S.A.). Washington is already in hot water it seems for what they’ve done; will they really compound the errors? Bernanke as well as Geithner understand this I’m sure. But do we get sucked-into the crisis (more).
It’s not only Greece and other ‘peripheral European’ countries sitting on underwater if not toxic debt. The UK and the U.S.A. are still in that position; very little of it unwound as of yet; with the big banking profits primarily based on taxpayer-funded ‘carry-trade’ gains. The American people are more in a ‘backlash’ mode, (as expanded upon).
Debt impairment . . . is the concern; not earnings and recovery optimism as prevails, at least among the delusions of those who see a sustainable economic recovery with no contractions to test the mettle of the turnaround efforts domestically or worldwide.
I have called this a controlled Depression since forecasting it over three years ago; that the Fed and Treasury would facilitate systemic stabilization, but not much more. I regret to inform you that we were and continue correct. (Large portion redacted.)
Conclusion: stabilization efforts notwithstanding; overall recovery and deleveraging conditions will prevail (not may prevail) through this year, and probably into next year as well. Intervening market rallies do occur (some fairly wild), but of limited duration, at this point. If other developments unfold that could change prospects we’ll evaluate.
Bottom line: continuing characteristics; include (consolidated) the following bullet points:
· 3-year forecast ‘Epic Debacle’ alive; dynamic; various derivatives fiascoes yet to hit headlines.
Further bullet points provided members; please visit ingerletter.com site for details.
MarketCast (intraday analysis & embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks forecast substantive failures by markets; particularly as 2010 evolves (whether just as a correction of a worse case remains to be assessed). Remember back in early 2007 we denied the 'liquidity' momentum as a canard; believing housing only the first asset bubble to deflate. We then outlined structured investment vehicle failures; banking issues, the confluence of asset deflations, and more; continuing with interruptions per projecting long ago: 'a perfect storm'. New sets of storm clouds are quietly gathering.
As the debt bubbles continue to deflate, alternating tradable moves continue from a trading perspective. Against that backdrop retaining a macro (adjusted) Sept. S&P 1600 +/- short irrespective of interim oscillations. Technical analysis via video follows.
Daily Briefing Technical-Corner MarketCast Videos
Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers primary technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech, or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection. (Individual stock comments generally are provided in video overviews only; occasionally I'll have some thoughts here; however increasingly most all analysis is via video, as it should be.)
Friday at presstime: we have been able to clarify (previously announced but with the new marketing relationships their has been some confusion among shareholders) the following, with no assurance as to accuracy or completeness. Apparently there has in fact been (reserved for members) due to the continuing and welcomed (details). So, we continue to believe the Richmont deal (mostly former Avon and Mary Kay folks in Dallas) is NOT exclusive; does not preclude any separate distribution arrangements or contractual commitments, including but not limited to BASF, which acquired CIBA Specialty Chemical (combined the world’s largest) who represent Pure to the vast majority of the world’s major household name consumer product personal care companies (an example would be Nivea ‘Silver Protect’ spray deodorant, for sale now in England). This has all been a slow-go; we’ll see if it speeds the ramp-up’s.
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(Wed) night we did a brief update on Pure, and touched on some speculation. Not at all to belabor issues, but (Thurs.) we noted discussion (first time) of the presentation as will be used by the Richmont sales force they’re assembling, with respect to ‘retail’ as well as institutional marketing. (Remember this is potentially the group with history dating from not only Mary Kay -former CEO of America’s largest LBO ever- but also as the largest shareholder of Avon Products; though that isn’t to suggest any alliance with Avon per se.) Appears Pure finally is ‘getting their marketing act together’, and that’s why the focus is increased (with the rest of the details posted in daily archives).
Thankfully, most financial websites other than ingerletter.com have tended to view it with a backward view (trailing results and so on, along with negative characterization of management issues), which means nobody provides vision about earnings unless you extrapolate what ‘could be’. But since it isn’t yet visible; they can’t publish it and tend to either be critical or mostly naïve about what implications (also reserved here).
(In line with full disclosure here; I have been and remain a shareholder; and have not appreciably changed positions since adding to shares in the sub-2 area as I indicated deemed a good bet just a few months back. Also to new members; we have never in our 40 years of publishing, financial TV shows, or daily internet video analysis more recently, ever been compensated in any way by a firm for analysis, right or wrong. I point that out as ingerletter.com is among the few subscriber-based internet sites that do not accept display advertising or fees aside from our valued members, plus we do not rent, or in any way disclose information about our members. Our constant privacy policy, which predates the internet by the way, has always declined marketing efforts, and has never changed in all these years. We think that should be how everyone is treated on the internet; thus we regard and respect your privacy as we like our own.)
(p.s. a new member asked about the foregoing; so I thought I’d clarify it once again. I will now resume new Pure remarks; with last night’s comments in the archive below.)
Anyway here’s an excerpt from the ‘direct marketing’ approach we read this morning (likely gives a hint as to how it will be marketed by the sales force apparently being assembled..of course the mechanism of Pure’s SDC action has been discussed here before; but it’s a decent summary for new members, as I do not have time to review the original analysis; and request investors do their own due diligence for details as I have always suggested in recent years as I focus primarily on the overall market not the least being the ‘epic debacle’ collapse call…that’s what mattered..in May 2007):
(Pure SDC) IV-7 Ultimate Germ Defense™ attacks and kills germs from both inside and outside. Its method of germ defense is simple, yet extraordinarily effective. In this case, "the best defense is a good offense."
Microbes see the citric acid in the product as a food source – it acts as a scientific "Trojan Horse." When they ingest it, the silver ion in the SDC ingredient enters the microbes. Once inside, the silver ion binds to the microbe’s DNA, which blocks it from replicating itself and killing it. Meanwhile, the silver ion also is attracted to sulfur-containing thiol groups found in metabolic and structural proteins bound to the surface of the membrane of a microbe. The SDC destroys the structure of these proteins, which causes the organism to die.
A couple of major highlights are what sets this product and company apart from anything else out there, and will contribute to it's huge demand.
One major highlight validating its credibility is, PURE Bioscience just recently received U.S. EPA Registration for SDC-Based Disinfectant and Food Contact Surface Sanitizer IV-7.
Another major standout of IV-7 is that it provides powerful protection against a broad range of microbes, including those of particular concern in food processing and kitchen areas such as E. coli, Salmonella, Listeria and Campylobacter jejuni, as well as resistant pathogens such as MRSA.
The products commonly used to disinfect are made with toxic substances like bleach and alcohol. These other products are so dangerous that the EPA requires them to carry this warning: “Hazards to Humans and Domestic Animals;”
(Pure SDC-based) IV-7 continues to kill bacteria for up to 24 hours after usage – yet, with its EPA Category IV toxicity rating, the lowest classification, SDC is also labeled for use in sensitive areas such as those used by children.
(Then this new organizational structure goes into fairly successful network marketing approaches, which we won’t detail. Just thought that the straight-forward description of ‘bacterial kill’ would be of interest. This sounds material; but as a private company they are stating it; based on the active ingredient of a public firm.) Once again; we do not have the research time or staff of the old days. Your due diligence is necessary to determine appropriate risk tolerances or more. I’m primarily focused on macro market and forward-looking economic prospects..not at all the type of service that attempts to dissect specifics of companies which tends to be backward-looking … as we strive to give interpretations of overall market action, with a forward focus on the S&P, and to a lesser extent; Bonds, Gold, Oil and the Dollar too.)
In summary . . events continue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements including organized terrorist forces in various countries and the world’s oceans. Addressing terror threats continues, while domestic issues absorb us more while we must focus on U.S. economic stabilization.
Three years ago I commenced projecting an 'accident waiting to happen'; affirmed historically after long-duration periods of free money (Gilded Age mentality). Now a market may struggles with over-extended rebounds as this economy restructures.
Though enormous efforts have avoided systemic disaster on the banking front; there is no equivalent rescue of the overall economy besides perception; nor restoration of engines for sustainable growth. People are adjusting to lower expectations; which will never be a favored approach to American life. Actually we don’t see it as permanently alternating the future; but we still have major adjustments to work-through. That’s the reason we warn about chasing rallies; not to mention major ‘commercial’ adjustments as are ongoing. And as I’ve said; fairly visible new storm clouds were clustering.
Enjoy the weekend!
<h2 style="">Gene</h2>
Gene Inger,
Publisher
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