Jump to content



Photo

The Thrust


  • Please log in to reply
2 replies to this topic

#1 Will

Will

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 363 posts

Posted 08 July 2010 - 10:33 PM

Mark's posted yesterday morning that he thought the low was in:

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=121447

Here is some data from the up thrust over the last couple of days after the low. Analyzing SPX over the last 30 years there were 27 similar thrusts up of which 24 were profitable in about a months time. Unless you are really nimble this does not appear to be the time go short. The odds appear to be stacked to the long side.

Here are the stats:
TheLaunch01.PNG

And the individual trades if any one wants to go through them:
TheLaunch02.PNG

The criteria for the entry is very simple. No moving averages, indicators etc. In fact one could say not even price is needed. If anyone is interested try guessing it and I promise to post in a day or so.

#2 dcengr

dcengr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 13,391 posts

Posted 08 July 2010 - 11:14 PM

A month is a long time...
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#3 porsche911sg

porsche911sg

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,907 posts

Posted 08 July 2010 - 11:32 PM

I agree we should trade the long side for a while more two to three sessions. The GAP UP on Monday could be horrific before it all cools down. The last surge up all is the scariest.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!