14 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Just repeating the same comments from my little blog (link at my signature)...

The market was due a pull back due to its overbought conditions into next week, but not only the advance stopped below the 1100 resistance, but also the pull back dropped below the 1075-1085 support zone. This invalidates the intermediate term outlook (and establishes back again the bearish forecast to 900s into fall) unless the market recovers above the 1075 on Monday immediately to avoid a decline to new lows for the rest of the week.

There is a 8-9 week cycle low due in two weeks ahead of a bounce in early August and the next week seasonally is also a very unfavorable week to remain long, so it appears that a bounce that doesn't strongly take the market above 1075 at a minimum should be sold short with the price targets to new lows.

The weekly channel remains intact and it must be invalidated on Monday or latest by Tuesday by rallying well above 1075-1085 resistance to reverse the growing downside momentum, the longer term cyclical view remains after this sell off. The market is headed to new lows if a strong rally do not materialize above 1070s at least by the Monday's close...

(Chairman Bernanke: Are you reading this? Pump up more buddy, pump up!)

Best of luck...

[goldswinger]

Arb, you got to let the market do what it wants to do and go short if that's what the setup calls for, why plead to those manipulating a%^%%holes playing *******..... That's why we are in this mess.... GS.

Edited by goldswinger, 17 July 2010 - 07:44 AM.

[andiron]

you have to use the bulls' logic too..market hit 3/8 retrace of the mar09-apr10 rally then a 9% rally off 1010 spx.. breached 1040 for a few days but bounced right back...so its meeting bullish expection as well.. i think it is too cute if we have another legdown like mid june...i am betting on sideways movement here a bit

[arbman]

GS, the market manipulation prevented the banks from collapsing in 2009 and kept many people still employed. I am not sure we should've let the alternative happen, I still want to be able to walk in the streets at nights... Andiron, if the market drops, it will most likely pierce the bottom of the channel. This is now getting out of control. The sentiment is growing very negative, when it grows so negative, it creates panics...

[andiron]

arb, i didn't notice panic in vix...yes breadth was bad but after a 9% rise, wasn't that expected..

[goldswinger]

GS, the market manipulation prevented the banks from collapsing in 2009 and kept many people still employed. I am not sure we should've let the alternative happen, I still want to be able to walk in the streets at nights...

Arb, the continued market manipulation is distorting theconomy and making things even worse, rather than let the chips fall where they may, the way it is going, for sure we won't be able to walk the streets at any time, never mind nights. The people you have to worry on the streets don't even have stocks or jobs already.

So the banks have been saved, so what do you want Bernanke to save right now, propping the market does nothing for jobs just continue to help the Wall street gang of thieves.

GS.

[qqqqtrdr]

Guys... What do you think the G8 meeting was three weeks ago.... The G8 meeting was to stimulate the economy... The G8 voted not to stimulate by to get fiscal spending under control... I don't think the FED will come up with a stimulus this weekend given that backdrop... The market will likely continue to sell-off by my calculations. My calculations show the market will continue to sell off overall for the next three months... I don't trade that horizon, so I will likely be short and long a few times in the next three months..... Barrybv

[porsche911sg]

Guys... What do you think the G8 meeting was three weeks ago.... The G8 meeting was to stimulate the economy... The G8 voted not to stimulate by to get fiscal spending under control... I don't think the FED will come up with a stimulus this weekend given that backdrop... The market will likely continue to sell-off by my calculations. My calculations show the market will continue to sell off overall for the next three months... I don't trade that horizon, so I will likely be short and long a few times in the next three months.....

Barrybv

Well done Barry I notice your're one of those more astute traders on baord who has firm understanding of how the market trades.

I fact through the years in 2007 -2009 bear market you had a good sense of the market direction

[arbman]

GS, the market manipulation prevented the banks from collapsing in 2009 and kept many people still employed. I am not sure we should've let the alternative happen, I still want to be able to walk in the streets at nights...

Arb, the continued market manipulation is distorting theconomy and making things even worse, rather than let the chips fall where they may, the way it is going, for sure we won't be able to walk the streets at any time, never mind nights. The people you have to worry on the streets don't even have stocks or jobs already.

So the banks have been saved, so what do you want Bernanke to save right now, propping the market does nothing for jobs just continue to help the Wall street gang of thieves.

GS.

I do not know what to tell you. On one hand I completely agree that the path chosen up to this far would only make the eventual collapse worse. We had a collapse in 2008 and it looks like the same people who were responsible got out of the collapse just fine and they are still in control while the people have been robbed. This is the part I agree with you.

My disagreement is that once the businesses collapse from here, it doesn't matter anymore. It is an irreversible path. Instead, there will be very very slow growth, if any, for a long time and we are betting that it will still turn. In some metrics, it can. In some metrics, there will have to be further sacrifices to be made by the people.

The bankers are coming out just fine and this is very worrying, eventually people will have enough either way...

[qqqqtrdr]

Guys... What do you think the G8 meeting was three weeks ago.... The G8 meeting was to stimulate the economy... The G8 voted not to stimulate by to get fiscal spending under control... I don't think the FED will come up with a stimulus this weekend given that backdrop... The market will likely continue to sell-off by my calculations. My calculations show the market will continue to sell off overall for the next three months... I don't trade that horizon, so I will likely be short and long a few times in the next three months.....

Barrybv

Well done Barry I notice your're one of those more astute traders on baord who has firm understanding of how the market trades.

I fact through the years in 2007 -2009 bear market you had a good sense of the market direction

Understanding the market, and trading the market are two different things... During most of the upswing in 2008/2009 I was out of the market recalculating and back testing a variety of charts.... The reason why I'm so bearish long term is BDI, which I wasn't using in 2007/2008. The price dropping for such a long period of time leads to lower equity prices... The market delay to the price is about 12 weeks... If the BDI bearish cross ( 20 day crossing down through the 50 day ) does not recover during the 12 weeks, lower equity prices are expected... Also, thanks to IYB, I'm able to put together a full picture for trading.... His 8 unit MA and 34 unit MA are vital also in determining acceleration of direction.. In the case where the 8 day MA appears that in will bounce lower off the 34 day MA will usually mean an acceleration to the downside on a steep crossing. This is the reason why I got beared up to 100% on Thursday, once the 20 hour moving average was crossed on the downside, as well as the market being short term overbought with negative divergences on McClellan.