6 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

Precious Metals/Gold Miners Correction Nearing Ending Phase - Time to take notice of "relative strength leaders"

I will be paying particular attention to those miners that decline the least or even start an upmove, bucking the broad short-term trend.




"Gold and gold mining status is reviewed with regard to several currencies, the ratio to the Dow and of course the compelling picture being painted in an ongoing manner in miners' ratio to gold (HUI - Gold) and in my view, the frequent expressions of frustration from impatient gold bugs are exactly what I like to see. If the current analysis is correct, they will get more opportunity to be impatient - or worse, to puke up their shares before too long"

from my friend Gary
Biiwii Blogspot
Note: I am not a subscriber to Gary, but read his blog daily!


Oil and Energy still in a trading range after 2 consecutive BUY SIGNALS from the weekly charts so far in 2010 - with an expectation of a US Dollar corrective bounce key levels are 67 to 87 (could be about to establish a new 20-pt range 60-80)





Agriculture explosive move up of the bottom (17.67% on GKX for the month!) However, approaching logical resistance zone - time to lighten-up, raise stops or both.



Upcoming trading range consolidation will be an excellant accumulation period, especially for the components of MOO IMHO!


US Dollar setting up for a BOUNCE - should tell us a lot about the course of the US Dollar:

Typical Wave 2 selloff ending with powerful Wave 3 Up towards 90-92 (Could also be C Up Terminal)
or
Wave 1 of 3 Selloff ending with Wave 2 Corrective Bounce up next to be followed by a 3 of 3 down!






Broad Market (SPX) seems like we are always at a CRITICAL LEVEL for the SPX - right now the market deperately needs to make a HIGHER HIGH above 1,131 and follow-through on a 20/40 day EMA emminent positive cross






Conclusions:

Dollar Bottomimg ST - Great IT Clues ahead
SPX Peaking - Could go on for a while based on this weeks action
Gold & Miners approaching an important IT bottom - relative strength watch
Oil and Energy - will probably follow path of US Dollar - very difficult sector for now am underweight
Agricultural - strongest sector for accumulation on weakness


Comments and discussions welcome!


stubaby

[dougie]

nice charting as always Somehow i am wondering if Mid August marks a high and dwon we go into Oct/Nov turn?

[johngeorge]

You always bring great stuff, stubaby. Comprehensive analysis with wonderful charts and comments. I really appreciate it!!! Thank you.

I agree with dougie. Looking for a move into August (major Bradley turn date Aug 10th) and then down into Oct/Nov time frame. Will be a great buying opportunity, a back up the truck event, IMO.

Best to you.

[stubaby]

dougie/johngeorge: Thanks for the feed back on Gold/PM's - any thoughts on ag or energy? stubaby

[johngeorge]

dougie/johngeorge:

Thanks for the feed back on Gold/PM's - any thoughts on ag or energy?

stubaby

stubaby

I believe both ag and energy are entering a bull market if they are not in one now. There will be the "normal" pullback in the Fall, but, then they will be back on a run. I am long GAZ and PMGYF in natural gas which I believe will be going up until October/November. Then those two are probably thru the best of their run for the year. Will be looking to sell them then. Regards agriculture...............nothing but bull. Wheat is very hot and continues to climb in price. I still hold 60% of my original position in GRU and recently bought a starter position in JRA.

Oil is a different matter, but, it looks to me like it can continue higher and higher. Shortages should be appearing within a few years as deep water drilling is pulled back. All the easy stuff has already been found else why would they be doing something so expensive and risky as deep water drilling? Our country imports nearly 60% of its oil now. Saudia Arabia recently announced they will cut back on exploration and limit exports so as to protect the value of their oil for their children/grandchildren. Chinese buying cars like there is no tomorrow. India won't be far behind in a few years. Cost to make usable oil from tar sands is $85 to $100 a barrel. Etc, etc. And just look at our nearly worthless dollar. I will be looking to go long oil via an ETF soon.

Best to you.

[tradermama]

Thank you Stubaby! I thought I would add fwiw Merriman mentioned that if the Euro closed over the 25 weekly moving average 2 times (this past week was the first weekly close over it) then he feels the low is in for the Euro albeit can test 1.23-1.25 and headed for a 1-3 yr bull run. Hence, that would go with an oil run. I agree with you Johngeorge about the ag commodities..been watching it and it's been obvious the strength in the grains..especially wheat which now is headed for a 1-3 yr bull run too. It's funny, they always talk about deflation and claim there is no inflation but I definitely can see it at the grocery store. Same prices and smaller packages have been going on for a few years but it's becoming more broader now imo. One might see "discounts" at the retailers but it's relative to smaller inventories and really many of those discounts aren't really that big of a deal like the media claims. Here in Florida they had a big to do about "Christmas in July". Seriously, they even decorated the malls and had Santa at some places. It just tells me of the desperation out there about the economy and not having faith of what is to come by year end. I've lived here for 25 yrs and never saw this before. If the retailers had better to offer, I would still bet that consumers would buy. The malls are still very busy but what they are offering is nothing you would want to buy. Maybe it's the female in me, but it's true. If you have an Ikea in your area, it's always busy. Mainly the uniqueness of what they offer with their low prices. It's all relative to what the consumer will buy. The savings rate is growing but imo many still dont know how to budget or have the discipline to keep it growing.That's been the real problem in the US..discpline! Off subject here but I have noticed more and more government leaders talking more and more about the stock market. It's so obvious that they know they must try and keep this market up in order to keep the economy going...Greenspan was on Meet the Press and it was even asked of him about this..He said that this is a way to keep the economy growing. I always knew it but he actually showed their cards imo..and you know Bernanke and company are doing the same. Thanks again! TM

[johngeorge]

Russian Wildfires Kill 34 as Drought, Heat Drive Wheat Prices 19% Higher

Hedge Funds Boost Natural Gas Bets First Time in Six Weeks: Energy Markets

Edited by johngeorge, 02 August 2010 - 07:17 AM.