9 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Is the Hurst 80 week cycle low in ? SilentOne, You were looking for one more week for the 80 week lows to kick in. Are you still waiting for that or do you beleive that it's behind us now. Thanks. I think it's a clash of titans here. I am talking about the methodologies, not the individuals - just to be clear. T-theory is calling for a major top. Hurst methods are calling for a major low. The A/D line theorists will require one more divergent high on the SPX to really call it done. Very very interesting times indeed. Will be following all with intetrest.

[hiker]

hi NAV,

I have read here at TT updates by Silent One and by Echo, and they are contained here if you look for them.

some additional content by Silent One and Slinky (Echo) is visible here where I notice both of them post for many months - http://investorshub....x?board_id=2593.

at I-Hub it is possible to view all the posts at all I-Hub boards by a single poster ... for example - http://investorshub....aspx?user=38423

Edited by hiker, 01 September 2010 - 10:26 PM.

[SilentOne]

hi NAV,

I wouldn't call it a clash of the titans. I think we are seeing the same outcome, that a major top is forming here in this time period. The Hurst method sees an 80 week low that came in likely early July. A 10 week low has formed this week and there is a chance that was also the 80 week low in the end. There will be upside pressure until this 10 week cycle tops out at a minimum. The top that forms in this next 10 week cycle could be the secondary or final top which could come in by mid-October. As you well know, major tops are difficult to forecast. We could possibly already be in a bear trend, but I lean toward continued distribution until a secondary top is made. The only question is how long will it last?

I have tried to explain in some postings in the last days why an 80 week Hurst low is forming and what will be the significance. If the long term cycles are bearish here, then a major top is forming here and one of the requirements is for an 80 week Hurst cycle low to come in and then subsequently fail. I have tried to explain this in the thread below:

Equity markets are heading into 80 week Hurst cycle lows (see first chart). The THT software has indicated the early July low as a potential 80 week low, but unlikely now IMO. A retest of that low looks inevitable.

Even though markets are turning very bearish here, there still should be a sizeable rally out of this coming cycle low. The only question is at what level it starts from. The unknown will also be what potential exists. As the 4.5 and 9 year cycles are pointing down, this rally could be rather muted. The last 80 week cycle low was March 9, 2009. The markets rallied for over a year out of that low. The one prior was August 16, 2007. The $SPX rallied for 9 weeks and then topped out at all time highs (major failure).

To answer your question more directly:

“What level or time frame would need to be broken to confirm that the 80 week Hurst Cycle low has failed?”

Have a look at the second chart. I’ve noted the Aug. 2007 low as an 18 month low. When that print low was taken out to the downside in Jan. 2008, it was a warning that this 80 week cycle was going to fail or turn very bearish. There was always the outside chance that the March 2008 low was a late 80 week low, as it was a 4.5 year low as well. But once the $SPX took out this level again in July, it was quite clear the bear had taken hold.

So going forward, we first need to get past an 80 week cycle low, see that rally top, and then from there look for the same type of failure where the 80 week print low is breached later this year or next year. Bear in mind that the 2007 episode took about 5 months for this too happen out of the Aug. 2007 low. I would imagine a similar time frame is needed here.

Hope that helps clarify my cycle thoughts.

The two major tops formed (2000 & 2007) with an 80 week low nested right near the top. It took a few months to resolve things to the downside. The reason is that the upside pressure of the 80 week cycle has to subside (and fail) being overcome by the larger cycle which are pointing down. We have that very situation right now. We have the 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycles pointing down. These larger cycles will ultimately force markets lower into 4.5 and 9 year Hurst lows due in 2012.

So for now I would avoid shorts for the next few weeks unless day trading. Better short opportunities will come.

The $SPX has the potential to rally to 1150 - 1170 by mid-October. But there is no way to be certain of the potential strength on this secondary top.

Hope that helps.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 02 September 2010 - 12:50 AM.

[NAV]

SilentOne, Now i understand. So you are betting on the 80 week low failure eventually, based on the cyclical pressure from larger cycles.

[SilentOne]

SilentOne,

Now i understand. So you are betting on the 80 week low failure eventually, based on the cyclical pressure from larger cycles.

Yes. It won't be obvious what comes next.

cheers,

john

[Remo]

I think it's a clash of titans here. I am talking about the methodologies, not the individuals - just to be clear. T-theory is calling for a major top. Hurst methods are calling for a major low. The A/D line theorists will require one more divergent high on the SPX to really call it done. Very very interesting times indeed. Will be following all with intetrest.

In line with the current trading range environment, IMO...

[Echo]

Hi Nav, sorry been busy today. I think that John summarized everything quite well. With this move on Wed, the 10wk low is almost certainly in (unless we crash down 50 points in the next couple of days with the jobs affairs). The 10wk low finalized by Tues which was the 43rd TD and in line with expectations, though I was shooting for 45TD in my posts before. Since we did not undercut the July lows, more than likely the 80wk low was in early july and we just had a deep 10wk cycle low with near exact 75% retrace of the July rally. While 80 week lows are generally good buying opportunities, this one is the third of three in the 4.5year cycle and the last of 6 in the 9year cycle, so it should be significantly left translated. How much so no one knows. Just watch for trendline breaks with the final dagger as John said when we violate the July lows. If Terry is right and we fail and go down right here, than the 80wk cycle would have had a severe left translation and peaked at about 4-5wks. That could happen too. Then there would be no clash. However, if we rally significantly here for several weeks as is possible, then Terry will have to adjust his interpert of the T's. Doc

[NAV]

Echo, SilentOne, Thank you both for the detailed explanation.

[OEXCHAOS]

You guys are gold. Thanks, Mark

[denmo83]

Is the Hurst 80 week cycle low in ?

SilentOne,

You were looking for one more week for the 80 week lows to kick in. Are you still waiting for that or do you beleive that it's behind us now. Thanks.


I think it's a clash of titans here. I am talking about the methodologies, not the individuals - just to be clear. T-theory is calling for a major top. Hurst methods are calling for a major low. The A/D line theorists will require one more divergent high on the SPX to really call it done. Very very interesting times indeed. Will be following all with intetrest.

Many thanks SilentOne and Echo!