6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

MBA Purchase Applications
Highlights
The Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index rose 1.8 percent in the August 27 week, only a slight increase from a very low level which the report says points to no improvement for new home sales in August nor existing home sales for September. On the refinancing side, the index is up 2.8 percent to a 15-month high as borrowers take advantage of even lower mortgage rates. The rate on the average 30-year loan dropped 12 basis points in the week to 4.55 percent.

Challenger Job-Cut Report
Highlights
Layoff announcements totaled 34,768 in August, down from 41,676 in July for the lowest total of the recovery. Layoffs were heaviest in industrial goods and government.


ADP Employment Report
Highlights
ADP estimates August private payrolls will fall 10,000.

ISM Mfg Index
Highlights
Lagging factors gave what is a bit of a deceptive boost to the ISM's manufacturing index masking a further slowing in the key leading index of new orders. The PMI came in at a stronger-than-expected 56.3 for a sizable eight tenths gain from July. The reading is well over 50 to signal month-to-month growth and in the comparison with July, to signal growth at an accelerating rate. But this growth is in general business activity: production, employment, inventories. These three factors all accelerated in August with a special note on inventories where the gain may reflect in part an unwanted build.

New orders slowed but just a bit, down four tenths to 53.1 for its lowest reading since the manufacturing recovery began in the second quarter of last year. Unfilled orders also slowed, down three points to 51.5 and its weakest reading since December. The slowing in order build is certain to limit future improvement in business activity.

Still today's report is solid and includes strength in both exports and imports and an increase in prices paid that reflects demand for inputs. Though the slowing in orders is a concern, stocks are rising on this report.

Construction Spending
Highlights
The construction sector returned to a downturn in July and in June. Construction outlays fell 1.0 percent, following a revised 0.8 percent drop in June. The latest figure came in worse than expected compared to the market forecast for a 0.6 percent drop. June original was estimated to be a 0.1 percent rise.

The recent plunge in home sales and decrease in starts has carried over to construction spending. The dip in July was led by a 2.6 percent drop in private residential outlays, following a 2.0 percent decline the prior month. Public construction also fell-by 1.2 percent after a 0.6 percent gain in June. In contrast, the private nonresidential component rose 0.8 percent, following a string of declines.

On a year-ago basis, overall construction outlays slipped to minus 10.7 percent in July from down minus 10.4 percent in June.

At the release, markets paid more attention to an unexpected rise in the ISM manufacturing index. On the ISM news, stocks popped, rates firmed, oil rose noticeably, and the dollar gained.
Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

[Rogerdodger]

I just caught this: " lowest total of the recovery" Good to know we are in a recovery. I'll call Laundry.

[Rogerdodger]

It's funny how the headlines can change dramatically based on a report (and the outlet's motive):

Aug 5, 2010
July jobs report renews concerns over a stalled recovery
... The nation's economic recovery continued to sputter in July as employers kept shedding jobs and 181000 discouraged workers dropped out of ...

Today:
Strongest jobs recovery in decades.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 September 2010 - 09:47 AM.

[tradermama]

It's funny how the headlines can change dramatically based on a report (and the outlet's motive):

Aug 5, 2010
July jobs report renews concerns over a stalled recovery
... The nation's economic recovery continued to sputter in July as employers kept shedding jobs and 181000 discouraged workers dropped out of ...

Today:
Strongest jobs recovery in decades.

Here's some feedback from my son's IT company here in Orlando...he was telling me how crazy the effects of the media is playing on their customers. If one day the media writes that the economy seems bad..the orders slow down...if it is good..they improve. THis reminds me of how housing began to fall and all you heard about was the downfall of the housing market on our national news..and it stayed with us since 2006 and still is with us but now they are trying to show some "hope"..that said, you can't have hope without jobs...so I'm not necessarily a believer at this stage of contrarian trading because sometimes what you see is what you're going to get.

Also, here in Orlando, more layoffs in the city of Orlando happened in July. Our Orange county is now changing health insurance policy to set up HSAs to save money. WE were self insured but in order not to lay off county employees, they are first going after health insurance. But in FY 2012 most likely we will see the cuts in people and possibly salary employees. We just aren't getting revenues with all the foreclosures and slowness in housing. The politicians are trying to say they wont raise real estate taxes...yea, right! THe services are being cut left and right. They have to find revenues and most likely will do it in a different form like sales tax increase. We're fortunate because we are a year away then from retiring..all self retiring too..no depending on any pensions, just myself...it's not just about income but about lowering expenses and that has been my approached for years now and so far successful. I saw the trend of smaller homes (which is what our retirement home is) would be in demand a few years ago based on demographics and what I felt was to come. Now, we're hearing that is the case in order for baby boomers to retire or families to maintain their household.

If jobs report come in line or "good"..then I would not believe it based on the problems in the local governments where they are all laying people off still..and small business isn't ramping up.

TM

[Data]

Last month, the Feds passed a 26 billion dollar jobs bill to prop up the state & local governments to prevent the 170K layoffs that would've occurred in September and October as the fiscal year rolled over.

[tradermama]

Last month, the Feds passed a 26 billion dollar jobs bill to prop up the state & local governments to prevent the 170K layoffs that would've occurred in September and October as the fiscal year rolled over.

We haven't heard nor seen anything yet down here in Orlando area. Even that stimulus money was a joke. Our county though is one of the best when it comes to managing their budget but the city of Orlando started last year laying off 10% of their workforce and I believe another 10% was coming this year. As recent as this August, the local adminstrators have painted a dismal picture going forward and these people are in the know too. So just like housing, by the time we might see any kind of aid, it might be too late. The state took its time distributing the stimulus and like I said, it was a joke here about how much of a difference it made. They are all down to a skeleton crew too and services are being cut from maintenance to garbage pickups. People here are worried now with the HSA plans that are taking place of the old health care. Many live pay check to pay check and are worried how they are going to pay for some of these upfront costs even though it has tax benefits..many dont care about that because of their limitations.

I hope it changes but it needs to change now. I heard too about the passing of a jobs bill but again, nothing is being talked about or rejoiced on the local level.

TM

[Rogerdodger]

Signs point to continuing Las Vegas exodus...