30 replies to this topic

[IndexTrader]

Heard this interview on CNBC this AM with Lazlo Birinyi.

http://seekingalpha....only-just-begun

Birinyi called this a bull market early in its move in 2009. And he stunned investors in January when he contended that if this bull stayed true to historical form, the S&P 500 could hit 2854 -- more than double the current price -- by September 4, 2013.

[MikeyG]

Heard this interview on CNBC this AM with Lazlo Birinyi.

http://seekingalpha....only-just-begun

Birinyi called this a bull market early in its move in 2009. And he stunned investors in January when he contended that if this bull stayed true to historical form, the S&P 500 could hit 2854 -- more than double the current price -- by September 4, 2013.

I am not sure if ridiculous or absurd is a better word for his target...

[redfoliage2]

Heard this interview on CNBC this AM with Lazlo Birinyi.

http://seekingalpha....only-just-begun

Birinyi called this a bull market early in its move in 2009. And he stunned investors in January when he contended that if this bull stayed true to historical form, the S&P 500 could hit 2854 -- more than double the current price -- by September 4, 2013.

He will not stop calling even higher targets before this goes crashing. market needs his cheerleading just as it needs to rely on the Fed's life-supporting..............

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 February 2011 - 03:27 PM.

[gm_general]

Heard this interview on CNBC this AM with Lazlo Birinyi.

http://seekingalpha....only-just-begun

Birinyi called this a bull market early in its move in 2009. And he stunned investors in January when he contended that if this bull stayed true to historical form, the S&P 500 could hit 2854 -- more than double the current price -- by September 4, 2013.

Perhaps he will be the Blodget or Dent analog of his day!

Those guys are still surprisingly employed pronouncing on the market. Showing probably nothing could push one of these guys out of that profession.

[dasein]

those targets are all possible with Zimbabwe Ben.

[MikeyG]

those targets are all possible with Zimbabwe Ben.

Would not inflation just lead to deflation, with a 2800 sp target oil would be something like $250 a barrel and food prices would be out of control...

We a need a structural economic change, until then this thing will be in stuck in a range between 400-1600 imho...

[Data]

He came out with a 1331 target for 2011 a month ago and some huge number for 2014 strictly on the comparison to the 1995-2000 market. I think he's just always fully invested. Every time he's been on CNBC or Bloomberg, he's calling a bottom or making a forecast of a higher price on the S&P 500.

[rkd80]

In order to achieve his price target we would need to basically continue this amplitude virtually uninterrupted. We already had a 100% move in the market since March of 09, what is the historical comparison of that over 100 years? Where does this rally stack up in terms of sheer amazement and how likely is it to continue much further let alone doubling from here on out?

[arbman]

those targets are all possible with Zimbabwe Ben.

Not sure it is achievable even in Zimbabwe dollars. Even if we get an inflationary blow off of 18% per year similar to gold's performance over the past decade, it would still take 5 years to get there and how in the world S&P 500 companies will grow that fast?!?!?

So, let's assume we won't hit the mark, but come close, even this is not possible...

The weak labor markets are helping to boost the corporate profits at the moment, but not supporting such an inflationary period in terms of purchasing power for the long term --and this is not more than 6-9 months! Fed cannot print any faster, if not anymore, to support the markets instead either. The budget of the United States will soon pressure the interest rates substantially higher and the corporate debt or the real estate markets are not ready to handle such an outcome. The massive state and muni level financing will get even tougher with any tick higher in the rates...

Basically, yes the market may continue to overheat, but there is no support building up underneath, the govt policy is carving from the bottom line to improve the top line from here --it is a pure demand level engineering activity for the price appreciation rather than any supply control, I will let you be the judge of how sustainable this is as the supply will overwhelm this market when the demand side depletes (and very soon)...

I have an interval for a severe crash for the last 2 weeks of October into the first week of November.

[Gary Smith]

Heard this interview on CNBC this AM with Lazlo Birinyi.

http://seekingalpha....only-just-begun

Birinyi called this a bull market early in its move in 2009. And he stunned investors in January when he contended that if this bull stayed true to historical form, the S&P 500 could hit 2854 -- more than double the current price -- by September 4, 2013.

Index Trader, you beat me to the punch as I was about to post this very link. I am not sure about his price objectives but otherwise thinks he makes some valid points, especially about the four phases of a bull market. As we have seen on this board for a very long time now, we are nowhere close to the third phase of this bull - the acceptance phase. And regarding a thread below about the IPO euphoria, I say what euphoria? The biggie will be the Facebook IPO and that is nowhere close to coming to market. Also, the private equity IPOs - companies taken private and now being taken public again - is only in the second inning at best. Also regarding early innings are the fund flows back into U.S. domestic equity funds.