5 replies to this topic

[arbman]

I still expect a very respectable rally from any lows over the next 2 weeks.

Ideal time frame was about now before the Japan damage that the market went through, but given the emotional news and the downside momentum, probably the breadth divergence will not form quickly unless the market rallies well over the next few sessions. I expect a bit consolidation up to 1290s, and then one more dive, then higher into April.

Seasonally and cyclically next week could be still weaker, the downside depends on the quality of the bounce, but SPX 1220s is a possible target (low odds). The next sell off should be the last one for some time though AND I expect new (or almost new) highs on all indices. SPX 1330s should be tagged at least...

I think it will take a crash to continue with the current selling pressure and it was easing today... BTW, the Japanese pilots also started to sacrifice themselves to stabilize the reactor, so how is this much different that Chernobyl?!?

Best of luck.

[dasein]

dont expect the rally to be as extended as you do - but after any rally from here, still expect we go lower - an old important level is 1180, it will be met, IMO. after that we might get a bigger rally, but we are going much lower, even if not in the nominal levels, should we get hyperinflation.

[thespookyone]

but SPX 1220s is a possible target (low odds). True-Much higher odds at 1195

[arbman]

You know I can disagree with you the whole day here, but it won't make a difference. A man sees what he wants to see. I think the market will bottom shortly from here and run back up to complete its slow roll over in spring, perhaps no new highs if the market drops lower.

I am bearish for the second half of 2011, but I also think the bears are once again going to get murdered into April. I am not quite bullish for the remainder of March yet due to the extreme breadth momentum that needs a retest , so we really need to see how the market will bottom from here to judge the upside.

In any case, I firmly see the market as bottoming from here in my analysis rather than going much much lower, certainly not below 1200 yet. I am usually a fast trader and position for both side of the market, so I will be flexible and quickly adapting, but if the history is any guide, we will have another round of irrationality before the market tops for good...

Edited by arbman, 17 March 2011 - 10:39 AM.

[jjc]

You know I can disagree with you the whole day here, but it won't make a difference. A man sees what he wants to see. I think the market will bottom shortly from here and run back up to complete its slow roll over in spring, perhaps no new highs if the market drops lower.

I am bearish for the second half of 2011, but I also think the bears are once again going to get murdered into April. I am not quite bullish for the remainder of March yet due to the extreme breadth momentum that needs a retest , so we really need to see how the market will bottom from here to judge the upside.

In any case, I firmly see the market as bottoming from here in my analysis rather than going much much lower, certainly not below 1200 yet. I am usually a fast trader and position for both side of the market, so I will be flexible and quickly adapting, but if the history is any guide, we will have another round of irrationality before the market tops for good...

So you're bullish. Are you expecting a retest tomorrow?

Edited by jjc, 17 March 2011 - 11:05 AM.

[arbman]

No, later next week, probably in about 4-5 sessions, this is the "usual" time frame after such strong downside breadth momentum. Maybe next Tuesday could be a good time frame for a turn, so maybe a short on Monday, if the market remains around 1290s by then, I would not try to sell short above 1310. Given the breadth momentum, it is likely that any retest will be worth trading (downside), however I don't think the IT roll over is completed yet. In my opinion, what everyone (bearish) is missing here that the situation is still under Fed's control, they are printing and they don't mind increasing the rate of printing either. The shock from Japan will keep the oil and commodity prices in check a bit and hence this gives the Fed the last bit of squeeze. I agree that this is not a sustainable situation, I never said anything like that, I always said that these are numerology, but at the end I don't want to loose money into their inflation games... Both oil and CRB have sharply turned down after the Japan's earthquake.

Edited by arbman, 17 March 2011 - 11:22 AM.