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> Todd Market Forecast, by Steve Todd
TTHQ Staff
post Aug 4 2011, 03:37 PM
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Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday July 27, 2011

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 199 on 2500 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 75 on 1750 net declines



The market is currently captivated by the debt limit negotiations and the prospect of a downgrade by the rating agencies. It’s a very tricky environment because once an agreement is reached, we could easily rebound 300 plus points immediately.

Ironically, days like today could push the politicians toward an agreement.

But, what happens if there is a downgrade? Well, we have an analogue. In 1998, Japan’s debt was downgraded and not a lot happened. Japanese bonds still have very low yields.

The S&P 500 marginally broke below the closing lows of mid July for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite, but not the intraday lows. This could provide support since it was where the last decline was arrested. We are a bit concerned that the advance decline line is well below comparable lows.

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GOLD: Gold fell back a bit, perhaps because the dollar spiked higher on the comments by the German Finance minister that the Greek problem was far from over. I know. That should spike gold, but the yellow metal has had a good run. Probably profit taking.

BONDS: Bonds gave back part of yesterday’s gains. Bonds are just waffling now without any real direction.

THE REST: The dollar was higher. Silver was lower. Copper lost ground and crude oil got mangled on the inventory reports.


Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.

System 2 traders, we had a system 2 buy today. At the opening on Thursday buy the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract and or the SSO at the opening. We’ll sell at Friday’s close.

System 7 traders are long the SPY at 132.75. Hold without a stop for now.


Durable goods dropped 2.1%, much worse than the 1.0% rise that was anticipated. Crude oil inventories rose 2.3 million barrels. Last we lost 3.7 million barrels. On Thursday we get initial jobless claims and pending home sales.


We’re on a sell for bonds as of July 21.

We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of July 21.

We’re on a buy for gold as of July 5.

We’re on a buy for silver as of June 6.

We are on a sell for crude oil as of May 5.

We’re on a buy for copper as of July 1.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.



Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.



Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.

Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were ranked ranked # 1 for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. At the end of 2006 we slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we were ranked # 5.

Our bond timing was ranked # 1 for 2007 and 2008. Gold timing was ranked #1 for 1997 and #2 for 2006.

For 2010, we were ranked the # 4 long term stock market timer.


P.O. Box 4131

Crestline, CA 92325-4131

e mail –

phone 909 338 - 8354

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