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> one Confirmation Data set, used by fund managers & RIA's
hiker
post Nov 14 2011, 08:29 AM
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static chart view updated for Nov. 11, 2011 -

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post/SPX-...ternals-5577914

comments about these charts are repeated below as of Nov. 11, 2011

* my Chart links are shown within each comment below for which the comments pertain

chart #1 is the SPX daily closes with SPX internals

chart #2 is the NYAD daily chart, with NYA internals

chart #3 provides an overview for this data set since 2002, and explains visually that this data set is ACTIONABLE for confirmation of trading bias, based on actual chart facts

summary of actionable data points:

1. chart #1 - is the SPX daily closes with SPX internals :



SPX and NYA require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired as a data set with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

2. chart #2 - is the plot of the 8-day sma for the daily NYAD, with NYA daily price closes, with the cumulative NYAD and with other NYA internals




*** NYA internals to be used for trade bias confirmation:

NYA components require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

chart #2 displays the most simple NYA price levels for trade bias confirmation:

NYA - $7311 is the must-hold price level for the bullish case to continue

NYA - the $7771 to $7950 horizontal zone requires recapture at a minimum or this current price action is not likely to be a lasting advance with staying power

3. chart #3 - is the NYA monthly closes since 2002 shown in histogram format, with NYA and SPX % of components above their 200-day moving average


* notice the correlation of:

1. the NYA price action above or below the 5-month simple moving average (shown in solid red)

with

2. a status above or below the 55% level for the NYA and SPX components' 200-day moving average
(SPXA200R and NYA200R shown in the lower portion of this chart)

the Ned Davis Research item noted below is contained in the public domain

* According to a study dating back to 1985 by Ned Davis Research, when more than 70% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and over 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, The Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has increased at a rate of +22% per annum. When fewer than 40% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and fewer than 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, the Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has declined at a rate of -18% per annum. Under mixed conditions, the Composite performance has been near average.

This post has been edited by OEXCHAOS: Nov 15 2011, 03:21 PM


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Gumper
post Nov 14 2011, 09:10 AM
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Excellent post Hiker, thank you!
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mss
post Nov 14 2011, 12:40 PM
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From: Chattanooga, TN.
Member No.: 24



QUOTE (hiker @ Nov 14 2011, 08:29 AM) *
static chart view updated for Nov. 11, 2011 -

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post/SPX-...ternals-5577914

comments about these charts are repeated below as of Nov. 11, 2011

* my Chart links are shown within each comment below for which the comments pertain

chart #1 is the SPX daily closes with SPX internals

chart #2 is the NYAD daily chart, with NYA internals

chart #3 provides an overview for this data set since 2002, and explains visually that this data set is ACTIONABLE for confirmation of trading bias, based on actual chart facts

summary of actionable data points:

1. chart #1 - is the SPX daily closes with SPX internals :



SPX and NYA require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired as a data set with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

2. chart #2 - is the plot of the 8-day sma for the daily NYAD, with NYA daily price closes, with the cumulative NYAD and with other NYA internals




*** NYA internals to be used for trade bias confirmation:

NYA components require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

chart #2 displays the most simple NYA price levels for trade bias confirmation:

NYA - $7311 is the must-hold price level for the bullish case to continue

NYA - the $7771 to $7950 horizontal zone requires recapture at a minimum or this current price action is not likely to be a lasting advance with staying power

3. chart #3 - is the NYA monthly closes since 2002 shown in histogram format, with NYA and SPX % of components above their 200-day moving average


* notice the correlation of:

1. the NYA price action above or below the 5-month simple moving average (shown in solid red)

with

2. a status above or below the 55% level for the NYA and SPX components' 200-day moving average
(SPXA200R and NYA200R shown in the lower portion of this chart)

the Ned Davis Research item noted below is contained in the public domain

* According to a study dating back to 1985 by Ned Davis Research, when more than 70% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and over 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, The Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has increased at a rate of +22% per annum. When fewer than 40% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and fewer than 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, the Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has declined at a rate of -18% per annum. Under mixed conditions, the Composite performance has been near average.

Best I could do,
regards, mss


mss


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