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> Felix Zulauf, Barron's roundtable
stocks
post Jan 13 2012, 11:04 AM
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Zulauf

Barron's Roundtable Annualized Returns: 2002-11


Felix Zulauf 25.1%
Marc Faber 23.4%
Oscar Schafer 13.7%

Roundtable Average 12.4%

Meryl Witmer 11.3%
Scott Black 4.8%
Mario Gabelli 4.4%
Abby Joseph Cohen 1.8%
S&P 500 -0.2%
Archie MacAllaster -1.9%

A lot of the good news already is in stock prices. The market will move sideways this year, but fluctuate widely

This is a long-term theme: agricultural commodities

Electricity demand probably will double in emerging markets in the next 20 years. I would buy uranium

There will probably be a financial crisis in the first few months of this year, because the banking industry in Europe will be unable to buy all the paper coming to market.
You could short the euro which is trading at $1.295. It could go below $1.20, but not for the whole year. I would trade the position.

Gold could fall to $1,150 or $1,200
How high is the upside? Unlimited.

I am not a big fan of gold stocks.

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The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. - Daniel Kahneman

Organizations that take the word of overconfident experts can expect costly consequences. - Daniel Kahneman

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dougie
post Jan 13 2012, 11:36 AM
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i am beginning to think he is right on the miners
dilute dilute dilute
at the end of the day only the insiders get rich
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cgnx
post Jan 13 2012, 10:17 PM
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Dougie you might as well just get out and stay out. It seems you have no conviction of your beliefs. Without that your doomed to failure.


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If it can be cornered, it will.
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stocks
post Jan 14 2012, 11:47 PM
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More recent Zulauf

Zulauf: Every European country will be in recession in 2012, and probably in 2013.

if you believe it won’t affect the U.S. you are dreaming. The estimated notional value of the over-the-counter fixed-income-derivatives market in Europe is estimated to be about 60 trillion euros. There are many links to the U.S. banking system, although we don’t yet know who is positioned how. If one country exits the euro, all hell will break loose.



Zulauf: The world economy will experience a brutal slowdown. Deflationary forces are going to strengthen and commodities in general will decline. You can buy oil to hedge a decline in base metals. Gold started a cyclical correction within a secular bull market last summer. The first wave of selling is ending now. Gold has to be bought some time this year, probably in the second half, below $1,600. Then the monetary authorities will load their guns again and print more money, which will make investors buy more gold. The gold market is so tiny that when people want to shift just a small piece of their wealth into gold, the price flies to new highs.



barrons

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This post has been edited by stocks: Jan 14 2012, 11:56 PM


--------------------
The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. - Daniel Kahneman

Organizations that take the word of overconfident experts can expect costly consequences. - Daniel Kahneman

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