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tradesurfer
post Jan 17 2012, 10:51 AM
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is UNG at a tradeable low today RIGHT NOW ???


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dougie
post Jan 17 2012, 12:20 PM
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well it sure is a lot closer to zero than it was a year ago
but based on what do you think it is at a low?
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dharma
post Jan 19 2012, 02:49 PM
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those breakaway gaps, on this leg, could lead to an exhaustion gap, which is what i think will happen.
as an alternative to oil , this could have a quick turn around.
oil seems to be basing here
dharma
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johngeorge
post Jan 25 2012, 03:41 AM
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For a natural gas play I prefer FCG. From Barchart.com, Yahoo, Nasdaq, Weekly Chart. I do not have a position at this time, but, I believe nat gas is getting very interesting at these prices and watching. ninja.gif


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Islander
post Jan 25 2012, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE (johngeorge @ Jan 25 2012, 04:41 AM) *
For a natural gas play I prefer FCG. From Barchart.com, Yahoo, Nasdaq, Weekly Chart. I do not have a position at this time, but, I believe nat gas is getting very interesting at these prices and watching. ninja.gif


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This is a substitution effect at work, coal use is going down due to costs etc, and NG is cheaper. The two equilibrate somewhere around $5mmbtu, but once the change over is made, it sticks for a while. I am long from bottom.

This is also short Contract which is needing a cover, Nearby contracts reflect the pressure.

Don't stay too long but I will let the market set the limit.

Islander
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senorBS
post Feb 3 2012, 10:40 AM
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QUOTE (johngeorge @ Jan 25 2012, 03:41 AM) *
For a natural gas play I prefer FCG. From Barchart.com, Yahoo, Nasdaq, Weekly Chart. I do not have a position at this time, but, I believe nat gas is getting very interesting at these prices and watching. ninja.gif


while I own some FCG IMO the much better and safer plays are the Gassy Royalty trusts as you directly own the assets and get a big tax free divvy as well. I like HUGOTON (HGT) which is an XTO (now XOM) related trust and has no long term debt. You can safely wait for nat gas to recover and collect a fat divvy. Full disclosere - I have recently bought a sunstantial position and at your own risk.

BSing away

Senor
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senorBS
post Feb 3 2012, 05:07 PM
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Its a process, rigs drilling for nat gas collapsed to 745 from 777 last week, lowest level since Nov. 2009, this is how you start to begin to get supply and demand in balance

Senor
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senorBS
post Feb 3 2012, 05:39 PM
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another interesting take on a potential Nag gas bottom for a Dow chemical perspective:

NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Dow Chemical Co <DOW.N>, one of the largest U.S. buyers of natural gas, is considering a hedging program for the first time in a decade to lock in rock-bottom prices for the fuel.

The move by Dow, the largest U.S. seller of chemicals, could signal growing concern in the nation's industrial sector that low gas prices will not last. Natural gas prices have fallen 50 percent in the last six months as output from vast U.S. shale fields flooded the market .

When asked if Dow is considering a hedging program to lock in low prices, Chief Executive Andrew Liveris said: "Yes."

"We used to do a lot of that in the late 1990s, early part of the last decade, and you can expect us to talk more about that in the future," Liveris said in an interview with Reuters.

The price Dow pays for ethane, a component of natural gas that is used to make many chemicals, rose as high as 94 cents per gallon in the fourth quarter. Prices have eased 30 cents so far in the first quarter, but executives are clearly worried about volatility.

Every 10-cent drop in the cost of ethane boosts earnings by $200 million, Liveris said.

Analysts have been closely watching Dow and its peers for signs they are locking in low costs. Indications in the natural gas futures and options markets show some players may be staking out positions.

On Friday, the natural gas futures contract <NGc1> was down slightly at $2.48 per million British thermal units (BTUs). Natural gas prices have dropped nearly 50 percent in the past three years.

"Companies are looking at these prices and locking in. Whenever you get near $2 (per million BTUs) you are going to have people locking in for the long term," said Phil Flynn, president of futures brokerage PFGBest Research in Chicago. "I would imagine that we will see a lot of hedging at these prices."

Natural gas prices likely will rise back to $4 to $6 per million BTUs by the end of the decade, Liveris said during a conference call with investors following his company's quarterly earnings report on Thursday. [see story]

High prices in the last decade, which peaked above $13 per million BTUs in 2005, made U.S. petrochemical and fertilizer manufacturers less competitive with their global counterparts, denting their market share.

The recent drop in price is largely due to the shale deposits in the United States. As a consequence of booming production, ConocoPhillips <COP.N>, Chesapeake Energy Corp <CHK.N> and other producers have said the low prices made production at some U.S. natural gas wells uneconomical.

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johngeorge
post Feb 4 2012, 04:51 PM
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Senor BS

Thanks so much for the insights and information. It is most appreciated. flowers.gif

Best to you. smile.gif


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johngeorge
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senorBS
post Feb 5 2012, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE (johngeorge @ Feb 4 2012, 04:51 PM) *
Senor BS

Thanks so much for the insights and information. It is most appreciated. flowers.gif

Best to you. smile.gif



IMO using a "blend" of vehicles is likely a good ides for nat gas, if the EPA did announce some kind of fracking limitation sime of the FCG stocks could take a big hit, however nat gas itseld would likely rally strongly, so I am using a mix of FCG and HGT and SJT and some other stocks that have an oil/gas mix
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