early recogniton Options

[senorBS]

the thing is xau/gld is lower today then in was @the lows of 08 not so for hui/gld or gdx/gld. this tells me marginal miners are going to be in trouble, explorers who have marginal resources are going to have trouble raising money. those w/poor management track records will have trouble raising financing. all of this will create shortages of supply down the road
there are daily divergences from oversold in the mining indexes. we will see what this shapes up to be
dharma

Interesting to me that GDXJ did not go below Dec low (yet at least) and XAU-HUI-GDX did, we will soon find out if that is meaningful

Senor

This post has been edited by senorBS: Mar 29 2012, 12:23 PM

[stubaby]

wxman:

Thanks for the chart - I have the same "triangle count" on all of the mining indices.

Broke below $1,650 to "clear-out" the stops - CHECK
GDX HUI XAU all made new correction lows - CHECK

GDXJ the lone holdout here, as is downside volume and reversal.

Getting closer!

stubaby

[stubaby]

Gold:Silver Ratio in bear flag - looks ready to resume the downside and take out 200-day MA:





stubaby


Important Note: Had one of my "nervious" clients call today - the last time he was this negative was June 2011! To me this is a "personal KEY TELL"

[dharma]

wxman- thanks good to see ya
COMEX Open interest collapsed another 2.4% yesterday to 407,393 contracts and a new multiyear low. That makes roughly 7% in OI that has come off over the past two days of trading and suggests that somebody “big” has left the building in the Paper-Gold market.

After having already seen the biggest 1-week decline in the Commercial Net Short position since July 31, 2007 earlier this month, Specs have been totally blown out of the futures market based on the decline in Open Interest, and India remains on strike.

today , my work w/traderama has today as a turn date based on the 12/29 low. gold has made its 2nd higher low since the 12/29 low. miners still have daily divergences. the signs are there. lets see how it plays out.
dharma

[fluid]

Dharma, it might still be too soon to tell.

[senorBS]

Dharma, did the HGNSI sentiment go lower than -15%? and today could very well be the key reversal day we needed to see, bueno timing of that big cycle if so

Senor

This post has been edited by senorBS: Mar 29 2012, 02:19 PM

[dharma]

Dharma, did the HGNSI sentiment go lower than -15%? and today could very well be the key reversal day we needed to see, bueno timing of that big cycle if so

Senor

i didnt catch the hgnsi for yesterday. but the sentiment investor or trader showed the gold bugs @the extreme
dharma

[dharma]

well senor , i was glad they were firing blanks!
dharma

[senorBS]

well senor , i was glad they were firing blanks!
dharma

LOL, me too, could be an el classico take us to the limit bottom, norte follow thru tomorrow and I like it mucho better

Senor

[dougie]

the big difference between now and 2008 that i can see is the ratio of gold to everything is much higher and hence the miners have a much better case in general.
in 08, gold: oil, gold :CCi, gold Spx were all much lower than today: ie the goods are there.
However, that is offset with: miners printing away new shares diluting value