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> Bullishness is quite thick right now
nimblebear
post Feb 17 2012, 08:35 PM
Post #1


Welcome to the Dark Side !


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Posts: 5831
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And its been on ever decreasing volume since last August.

The most remarkable part of all of this, is that S&P 500 is ONLY at 1361.

It was at or above this level in:
2008
2006
2002
2001
2000
1999

So someone could have left the market in 1998, gone into bonds, gold, oil, or any number of other assets and done remarkably better.

In fact, throughout this period, interest rates have been super super low, we've had 10's of trillions in monetary easing, printing, hiding of bank debt, and so, yet the S&P 500 for the better part of 14 years now, has gone nowhere. And that's without adjusting for the debasement of our currency, or inflation.

So imagine instead, if all of those trillions had simply gone into the productive parts of our economy, instead of the financial sector as it mostly has ???

It didn't really at all go into housing, because most or all of the money that changed hands was with the banks. It was not money that came from the working class. That money was printed out of thin air, and yet look at what people have to show for it ? Trillions less in terms of actual housing wealth.

What we do have to "show" for all of it, is infinitely more debt. In fact, when you do the math, its taking 3 times the amount of debt, to generate the equivalent GDP "growth", which really hasn't been growth at all, but merely a flat lining
economy. We have the lowest percent of the population ever participating in the job market. We have largely 22% unemployment/underemployment. The average household income is a mere $25,000 annually.

I'd be inclined to "argue" at this level of bullishness, with nearly 10 years of ZIRP, and more than 3 rounds of QE, every ounce of good news that could possibly happen for the next 2 decades is ALREADY PRICED IN !!!!

Folks we are literally, no better than Japan has been from 1989 through now. They were just a few years earlier, and not only that, our Federal Reserve and bankers have done exactly the same mistakes that they made in Japan nearly to the letter. We have more than 4000 zombie banks, supported by digital IOU's from the FED, that should have long ago been declared insolvent, yet the masses keep sticking their money in them on deposit to accept less than fractions of a percent.

And with all of this we have near record bullishness.

I find that quite interesting !

I'm sure our polyanna economists and experts and government would say but "Nimble, you said our market is ONLY at 1361, which really means all these stocks are highly UNDERVALUED, and thus SHOULD BE at 2061 !!!"

No we didn't need to reach or ever see an S&P 500 below 600. It's there now actually, because the unit value of a debased currency, makes 600 look like 1360. But 600 can go to 100, so what that means in today's terms, is that we are going to get about 6 times more monetary easing and printing than we've had combined and cumulative since this started in 1998, when Greenspan begun in earnest to f**k with monetary policy to target the stock market. so as such, they can keep this at or near 1360 to 1400 for the next decade.

Isn't that incredible monetary magic ??? You can laugh all you want at me, but I'm right about this, and I can show you the geometric, and exponential path we are on, in terms of QE needed just to maintain flat-lining.




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OTIS.
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CRUISENAL
post Feb 20 2012, 11:06 AM
Post #2


Member


Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 651
Joined: 18-February 04
From: Sarasota Florida
Member No.: 1502



Amen to all that!



QUOTE (nimblebear @ Feb 17 2012, 08:35 PM) *
And its been on ever decreasing volume since last August.

The most remarkable part of all of this, is that S&P 500 is ONLY at 1361.

It was at or above this level in:
2008
2006
2002
2001
2000
1999

So someone could have left the market in 1998, gone into bonds, gold, oil, or any number of other assets and done remarkably better.

In fact, throughout this period, interest rates have been super super low, we've had 10's of trillions in monetary easing, printing, hiding of bank debt, and so, yet the S&P 500 for the better part of 14 years now, has gone nowhere. And that's without adjusting for the debasement of our currency, or inflation.

So imagine instead, if all of those trillions had simply gone into the productive parts of our economy, instead of the financial sector as it mostly has ???

It didn't really at all go into housing, because most or all of the money that changed hands was with the banks. It was not money that came from the working class. That money was printed out of thin air, and yet look at what people have to show for it ? Trillions less in terms of actual housing wealth.

What we do have to "show" for all of it, is infinitely more debt. In fact, when you do the math, its taking 3 times the amount of debt, to generate the equivalent GDP "growth", which really hasn't been growth at all, but merely a flat lining
economy. We have the lowest percent of the population ever participating in the job market. We have largely 22% unemployment/underemployment. The average household income is a mere $25,000 annually.

I'd be inclined to "argue" at this level of bullishness, with nearly 10 years of ZIRP, and more than 3 rounds of QE, every ounce of good news that could possibly happen for the next 2 decades is ALREADY PRICED IN !!!!

Folks we are literally, no better than Japan has been from 1989 through now. They were just a few years earlier, and not only that, our Federal Reserve and bankers have done exactly the same mistakes that they made in Japan nearly to the letter. We have more than 4000 zombie banks, supported by digital IOU's from the FED, that should have long ago been declared insolvent, yet the masses keep sticking their money in them on deposit to accept less than fractions of a percent.

And with all of this we have near record bullishness.

I find that quite interesting !

I'm sure our polyanna economists and experts and government would say but "Nimble, you said our market is ONLY at 1361, which really means all these stocks are highly UNDERVALUED, and thus SHOULD BE at 2061 !!!"

No we didn't need to reach or ever see an S&P 500 below 600. It's there now actually, because the unit value of a debased currency, makes 600 look like 1360. But 600 can go to 100, so what that means in today's terms, is that we are going to get about 6 times more monetary easing and printing than we've had combined and cumulative since this started in 1998, when Greenspan begun in earnest to f**k with monetary policy to target the stock market. so as such, they can keep this at or near 1360 to 1400 for the next decade.

Isn't that incredible monetary magic ??? You can laugh all you want at me, but I'm right about this, and I can show you the geometric, and exponential path we are on, in terms of QE needed just to maintain flat-lining.

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Dex
post Feb 20 2012, 11:34 AM
Post #3


Member


Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 1713
Joined: 29-September 03
Member No.: 127



QUOTE (nimblebear @ Feb 17 2012, 08:35 PM) *
Isn't that incredible monetary magic ??? You can laugh all you want at me, but I'm right about this, and I can show you the geometric, and exponential path we are on, in terms of QE needed just to maintain flat-lining.


Good post.

I think that realization has not gotten to the general public yet because mostly stock salesmen are interviewed by the news and their job is to sell stocks to the public.

This post has been edited by Dex: Feb 20 2012, 11:34 AM


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"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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