12 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Here are some "background" data for the new week, the week before March OpEx.

The first trading day of the week had been down 9 times and up 3 times since 2000 with some pretty sizable down days. The weekly scores (Friday-Friday) in the past 12 years are even-steven, 6 ups and 6 downs.

Sentiment!!!

I thought that double-7 Consensus Sentiment Index looked familiar, and it's not about my favorite classic TV show, "77 Sunset Strip". That 77% is the highest bullish sentiment in my book since the week of 10/18/2007. The only thing is that I haven't kept track of it since December 2010. It'd be great if someone had the data of the past 14 months (12/2010 - 01/2012) to help fill in the blanks.

The Market Vane Index is also at the extreme bullish level of 67%. That's only second to the week of 10/11/2007 high of 69% and above the 10/4/2007 high of 66% & 10/18/2007 high of 65%. Again, I also don't have the data for this index for the past 14 months.

Regardless, that's extreme bullish sentiment of historic proportion.



How about that Thunderbird!!

[Dex]

I forgot about that show. People wearing suits and shaving! Hulu recently had Kojak on. I watched the first show. Even the criminals were wearing suits. And, it was so much more racial diverse then any show today.

[Rogerdodger]

I see where the folks at NAAIM pulled back a bit.
They often do that before tops.
http://www.naaim.org...dsenttrend.aspx

Mike Burk observed:
"The SPX has not been up for this week since 1992."
And since 1992 of the 4 year cycle, Monday has been down on average -.49%. The week down -1.13%

Not much movement in recent Bullish Ratios:
(The T Theory poll is for the coming month rather than the coming week)

Thrift S Plan: 03/09/12 54%
TTheory Forum 2/29/2012 34%
AAII (as of 2/29/2012) 62%

Tickersense: 03/02/12 67%
Thrift S Plan: 03/02/12 54%
TTheory Forum 2/22/2012 40%
AAII (as of 2/22/2012) 61%

Tickersense: 02/24/12 59%
Thrift S Plan: 02/21/12 52%
TTheory Forum 2/15/2012 47%
AAII (as of 2/15/2012) 61%

Tickersense: 02/17/12 61%
Thrift S Plan: 02/13/12 54%
TTheory Forum 2/9/2012 53%
AAII (as of 2/8/2012) 72%

Tickersense: 02/10/12 65%
Thrift S Plan: 02/06/12 54%
AAII (as of 2/1/2012) 64%

Tickersense: 02/03/12 61%
Thrift S Plan: 01/30/12 52%
AAII (as of 1/25/2012) 72%

And The TT SPX WEEKLY POLL managed by Bighouse shows that we got one correct!
We are batting .222 for 2012! (Back to the minors?)

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 March 2012 - 11:10 AM.

[TechMan]

Absolutely. Kojak - the character, the style, the story, and the era - makes it one of my all time favorites.

DEX, and that reminds me of the Men's Wearhouse (MW) earnings for 4Q and the full year 2011 right after the bell on Wednesday, 3/7/2012, along with a slew of other retailers. And, that's the sector in focus for my trading plan this week.

Some analysts believe that we're in the beginning of a "replenishment cycle". But, they're saying that about almost everything else too. And, just as an overbought market can stay more overbought, an over-worn suit can stay even more over-worn for a long time.

Nonetheless, the fact that it's already gone up nearly 50% in just 3 months has caught my attention for a mean reversion trade.

[TechMan]

Mike Burk observed:
"The SPX has not been up for this week since 1992."

Whoa! That's quite an outage here.

Been trying to post this for a while now. The "official" weekly data are Monday-Monday. In any case, I've just looked at the past 3 years and found both 2009 and 2010 were up. Am I missing something?

Mike Burk observed:
And The TT SPX WEEKLY POLL managed by Bighouse shows that we got one correct!
We are batting .222 for 2012! (Back to the minors?)

It's still early in the season. So, putting a hitting streak together with some timely homeruns should get both the batting average and the slugging percentage up.

=============


Meanwhile, China reduces its GDP target for 2012 to below 8% for the first time in 8 years. However, China also announces 11.20% increase in military spending for 2012, which makes it the first time the Chinese defense budget tops $100 billions mark. Guns and butter, or in this case, rice.

Last but definitely not least, the Dollar seems to be running into pretty strong resistance in the uphill "Battle of The Twin Peaks" --- see my last thread for more detail. The summit is at 9896. However, the Yen is rallying on lower Chinese GDP target. And, that's encouraging.

Edited by TechMan, 05 March 2012 - 12:25 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

both 2009 and 2010 were up. Am I missing something?

Yes. Neither 2009 nor 2010 were Presidential election years, part of a "4 year cycle" which is what Burk was referring to.
His stats are generally differentiated based on each particular year, month, week and day of each of the 4 years of that cycle.

Mike Burk observed:
"The SPX has not been up for this week since 1992."
And since 1992 of the 4 year cycle, Monday has been down on average -.49%. The week down -1.13%

Edited by Rogerdodger, 05 March 2012 - 12:37 AM.

[TechMan]

both 2009 and 2010 were up. Am I missing something?

Yes. Neither 2009 nor 2010 were Presidential election years, part of a "4 year cycle" which is what Burk was referring to.
His stats are generally differentiated based on each particular year, month, week and day of each of the 4 years of that cycle.

Got it. Thanks for the clarification. Now that's a pretty amazing history. And, appreciate the sentiment summary as always.


=========


Elise Testone - Love her voice.

[TechMan]

So far it's been flat. But, as the market's trying to hang in there, we've got a pretty "harmonious" setup for much more downside from here. One of the few things that are missing is volume, and that has to come in. Of course, intraday data are always subject to constant change. Good trading, boys.

[TechMan]

Two of my "windsocks". Ain't it pretty?!




And, my "sin" stock...

Wynn Resort (WYNN) is the biggest Nasdaq net gainer today as news broke about a land concession contract with the Chinese/Macau Government.

WYNN halted after jumping 6% on the news. Of course, I've got my eye on this stock for a while now for a mean reversion trade. So, we'll see.

[TTrader47]

AAPL just pulled the floor out of the market. Look at an intra-day chart of AAPL. WOW! Pulling back up sharply, but weighing heavily on the Nasdaq.