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TechMan
post Mar 26 2012, 11:09 AM
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With the failed attempts at 3/19/12 high by both the SPX & ES after the 45-min rally this morning, it's setting up for a good short entry here at the SPX 1410-1411. 3/19/2012 high 1414 may be used as a reasonable stop. Among other things, SPY April $141 put @ $1.90 looks like a good vehicle for the ride.

Good luck, boys.





This post has been edited by TechMan: Mar 26 2012, 11:14 AM
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TechMan
post Mar 26 2012, 02:56 PM
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Following ES breakout, the SPX bounced off of 3/19/12 close (1409 area), after 1:25pm and never looked back. It was clear then that it's hell bent on breaking 1414. The bulls have won this battle today. As far as price goes, this marks the end of the IT top. The question is whether my closing data would confirm that.

So, we'll see.



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Dex
post Mar 26 2012, 03:12 PM
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All major stock indexes up 1%+

RUT above Feb high

Dollar down/market up

10 year treasury price down

I think we have a 3-4 month rally to what number? I don't know.

Maybe that Barrons front page Down 15,000 was not a contrary indicator this time.

Good news feeding upon itself?

I don't know what can stop it.

known/Knowns
Europe - Greece has provided a road map

Gas price? - I've posted a thread in another forum asking if high gas prices are hurting people - surprisingly the answer was "not really".

Unknows/knowns
Middle East - Israel bombs Iran



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"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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CRUISENAL
post Mar 26 2012, 03:21 PM
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TM,

Looks like a blow off into the upper trend line of the rising wedge off the December low. It is on all the major indices. And today it's hit that upper trend line. Tomorrow could be a reversal that I have been looking for. If it does happen, all I see is a pullback of 23.6% to 38.2% of this run up, followed by a Summer rally into August. I expect we get that pullback into the 3rd to 4 th week in April and the rally starts again off that low. We can sit here and say it is a complete BS rally but that's the way it is. ALL Manipulated. Probably has been ever since the markets we formed. So I think it's goinf to pullback soon over the next 3-4 weeks. May thru July and maybe into August looks like will be UP! Take a look at 1999. Looks like late 1999 to me all over again. Also like more like Jan-April 1987. Eventually it will end badly for the market as it always does. Just going to take longer and that's why I think later this year before a big decline comes. And all the long term sheep will be getting in now for the last leg up. Then heads will roll down the street in 2013-2014. Should be an ugly market when it comes. That's my take. Alan




QUOTE (TechMan @ Mar 26 2012, 03:56 PM) *
Following ES breakout, the SPX bounced off of 3/19/12 close (1409 area), after 1:25pm and never looked back. It was clear then that it's hell bent on breaking 1414. The bulls have won this battle today. As far as price goes, this marks the end of the IT top. The question is whether my closing data would confirm that.

So, we'll see.

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andiron
post Mar 26 2012, 03:35 PM
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OIL needs to get berserk here shortly and voila......


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CRUISENAL
post Mar 26 2012, 03:49 PM
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Looks like $WTIC is doing a C & H or inverse H & S ow a W bottom. My bet says it's setting up to go UP!

We already have $4 a gallon now and I remember paying $4.09 at the peak at $147 so we could easily see 4.50 by July and maybe more. It will break the markets just like it did then eventually. People have had to tighten their belts the last few years and are like companies getting lean, but it causes lack of overall sales as people do not want to be blind sided again without a job. They have mostly used all their savings. When the next recession hits, businesses will have no choice but to cut labor as they are otherwise as lean as they can get. So more unemployed and less spending will come and this time should really hurt most people. I don't like being this bearish but that's the way I see it over the next few years. It IMO has been delayed by the FED and this time I doubt they can save it. Then the real depression. Eventually I hope the people of this country figure it out and from maybe 2015 on we will get back to a better business climate, but until then I think this country is in trouble. Time will tell!





QUOTE (andiron @ Mar 26 2012, 04:35 PM) *
OIL needs to get berserk here shortly and voila......

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andiron
post Mar 26 2012, 03:59 PM
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If that happens, Alan, can Benny/Summers etc be fired w/ tenure taken off and pension annulled as an example for moral hazard for repetitive failed policies and a much required dose of 'Schumpeterian' on the Elite..


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TechMan
post Mar 26 2012, 04:08 PM
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I agree with you, Alan. Manipulation's a given. I can understand occasional venting, but there's no point making that front and center of every post.

And, appreciate the forecast, as always.


=============


DEX, that's a pretty good rundown.

Here's one of the "knowns" that may negatively affect tomorrow's price action. My Nasdaq III (Intraday Internals Index) did not confirm the final push to higher close today. Unless the final closing data revise it, this type of divergence doesn't happen too often. I can't even recall the last time I'd seen one like this.



This post has been edited by TechMan: Mar 26 2012, 04:13 PM
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TechMan
post Mar 26 2012, 06:47 PM
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Here's a couple observations before I forget.

For the final 5 days of March, 7 out of 12 times since 2000 the SPX closed lower than day 1 at the end of the period. Both 2010 & 2011 QE periods closed higher. Sooo... there's no real seasonality advantage to the bears, due to simultaneous QE's by major central banks.

Options volume collected from all 6 exchanges today is the lowest since "Leap Day", 2/29/2012, with put and call volume at a virtual tie.

Meanwhile, the Aussie market's up about 0.80%.

Later...





This post has been edited by TechMan: Mar 26 2012, 06:53 PM
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TechMan
post Mar 26 2012, 09:22 PM
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Looks like futures continue to push higher overnight...

Still, not just my intraday didn't confirm the SPX breakout; the daily closing data also didn't confirm. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Meanwhile, I've found it odd that a super rally like today is not accompanied by super-size number of gap-up issues. There were virtually no "real" companies that gaped up with the major indexes today.

My intraday and EOD scans consistently revealed just 8 or 9 Gap-Ups and Gap-Downs, and they're mostly ETFs. Since my scan criteria do not include penny stocks, stockcharts.com pre-defined scans page shows 21 gap-ups and 18 gap-downs between the NYSE and the Nasdaq. And, most of them are either penny stocks or ETFs as well.

And, that has kept my Gap Index in the negative territory since, guess when, "The Nones of March".



This post has been edited by TechMan: Mar 26 2012, 09:23 PM
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