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TechMan
post Apr 1 2012, 04:21 PM
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So, early trading indicates "risk-on", as China has just released its official PMI showing a rebound to a year's high. But, before this official PMI report, we had this HSBC report released on 3/21/12. Which one to believe?

QUOTE (TechMan @ Mar 21 2012, 10:58 PM) *
China factory activity falls for 5th month, according to HSBC flash PMI.


And, then we had this

QUOTE (TechMan @ Mar 29 2012, 03:08 AM) *
... efforts by Alcoa and others to end a world supply glut of aluminum by cutting output may be in vain as China continues to keep its average daily production at record level. Aluminum supply will outpace demand for the 6th straight year.


Meanwhile, rumors of a military coup in China was circulating on the Internet that military forces were taking to the streets of Beijing at a time when the Communist Party is set to determine its new leader. London based The Guardian has reported that China has intensified online censorship by closing 16 websites and arrested 6 people.





This post has been edited by TechMan: Apr 1 2012, 04:31 PM
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viccarter
post Apr 1 2012, 06:42 PM
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@ES up 0.43%
@TF up 0.11%

no risk on quite yet


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viccarter
post Apr 1 2012, 06:59 PM
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ah, yes. just as i spoke had TF had to catch up.

Jinx.


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TechMan
post Apr 1 2012, 08:02 PM
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QUOTE (viccarter @ Apr 1 2012, 07:42 PM) *
@ES up 0.43%
@TF up 0.11%

no risk on quite yet



When the risky assets go up, the risk is on. That's pretty straight forward. I don't think there's anything to argue about. That's what I saw in the early trading, and that's what had exactly happened. I'm not sure what your point is.



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TechMan
post Apr 1 2012, 10:37 PM
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It looks like everybody's returned to where they'd started when the betting began except for the Yen. My "refuge" currency, the Yen, got sold off initially and has stayed relatively unchanged for the past few hours. The Yen's weakness has kept ES throwback after the breakout right on the "neckline" of the inverse H&S formation that I had commented on Friday.

It's critical here, and I can "feel" the battle along the line. Not breaking below the neckline after the throwback indicates higher probability of the resumption of the breakout. OTOH, the lower it falls below the neckline, the less likely it'd bounce back.

In essence, the Yen must reverse if the breakout were to falter.





This post has been edited by TechMan: Apr 1 2012, 10:39 PM
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viccarter
post Apr 1 2012, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE (TechMan @ Apr 1 2012, 08:02 PM) *
QUOTE (viccarter @ Apr 1 2012, 07:42 PM) *
@ES up 0.43%
@TF up 0.11%

no risk on quite yet



When the risky assets go up, the risk is on. That's pretty straight forward. I don't think there's anything to argue about. That's what I saw in the early trading, and that's what had exactly happened. I'm not sure what your point is.



the point was TF was a considerably lower than ES when the markets opened. that usually indicates weakness coming in ES. after a few hours TF started to catch up, so forget what I said.

I am short RUT index as of close Friday, so observing this with interest.


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TechMan
post Apr 1 2012, 10:46 PM
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QUOTE (viccarter @ Apr 1 2012, 11:39 PM) *
QUOTE (TechMan @ Apr 1 2012, 08:02 PM) *
QUOTE (viccarter @ Apr 1 2012, 07:42 PM) *
@ES up 0.43%
@TF up 0.11%

no risk on quite yet



When the risky assets go up, the risk is on. That's pretty straight forward. I don't think there's anything to argue about. That's what I saw in the early trading, and that's what had exactly happened. I'm not sure what your point is.



the point was TF was a considerably lower than ES when the markets opened. that usually indicates weakness coming in ES. after a few hours TF started to catch up, so forget what I said.

I am short RUT index as of close Friday, so observing this with interest.


It might've under-performed ES, but it's up. And, like I said, as long as risky assets go up, the risk is on. Their relative performance may have to do with varying degrees of risk appetite, but it's on nonetheless.



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TechMan
post Apr 2 2012, 08:24 AM
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QUOTE (TechMan @ Apr 1 2012, 11:37 PM) *
It looks like everybody's returned to where they'd started when the betting began except for the Yen. My "refuge" currency, the Yen, got sold off initially and has stayed relatively unchanged for the past few hours. The Yen's weakness has kept ES throwback after the breakout right on the "neckline" of the inverse H&S formation that I had commented on Friday.

It's critical here, and I can "feel" the battle along the line. Not breaking below the neckline after the throwback indicates higher probability of the resumption of the breakout. OTOH, the lower it falls below the neckline, the less likely it'd bounce back.

In essence, the Yen must reverse if the breakout were to falter.


And, T-bills rally continues while the Yen reverses its course and pushes the AUD/JPY toward the line of support that I had previously referenced. Will it make it this time? This also indicates that the equity market's at a very critical juncture.

China should come back on after the "Ching Ming Festival" holiday. That should make it another interesting night. I'm getting my popcorns.

Good trading, boys!

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