3 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

The Bradley had March 16th as a turn. A look at the NYSE shows it was.
Now do we have weakness up to May 30th, (coincidentally the day of Voltaire's death in 1778)?

I probably posted this info before.

Armstrong theory suggested the up leg from the Mar 6 2009 SPX low would be Apr 30 2011.

That was a weekend and the actual top was next trading day. Yes we just pipped that the other day before pulling back.

Armstrong logic suggests the leg down ends May 26 2012. Once again that is a weekend and even though one should watch Friday and Monday, perhaps the top behaviour suggests May 28 2012 is the more likely.

Gann lovers would appreciate we had an SPX low on Nov 25 2011 and that 6 months or 180 degrees from there is May 26 2012. 30/60/90/120/180 etc degrees are always significant. Degrees are just a little different from calendar days as we have 360 degrees in a year instead of 365/6 days.

The Decennial or 10 year US cycle calls for a major low mid year with no specific date, but May/Jul is the area.

Finally we have the Presidential or 4 year cycle as shown below. That seems to also point at that May 26 2012 area approx.

Does it make it a dead cert? No!

It would be amazing if we don't get a mid year low.

The 30 month cycle suggests an Oct/Nov low as well.

Another 17 month decline fits either Oct 2012 OR July 2013. Happy with either or both.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 April 2012 - 09:29 AM.

[fib_1618]

[Rogerdodger]

O GREAT! Real Bullets!

[arbman]

Roger it is nearly impossible to have a 3-4 week decline to start from here immediately. First of all, the price momentum at least suggests a sideways period and reattempt of the highs before giving up, this puts any big top to August or September. Nobody knows what they will pull out of the hat by then, the only thing we know this is or was a stretched market and it needs to take some profits and consolidate. My guess is we will see an higher high in May and then make another low on June 17 or so and then up until mid-August or early September again... The fact that we have the elections and the 70 week low lining up around January-February period adds uncertainty beyond September. There will be also the debt and budget talks around the elections. For now they conveniently postponed everything until the elections... The sellers should show up after August once the thrust from the 34-35 week cycle exhausts itself. I expect the first signs of weakness to show up into the second half of July, but this is months away, IMHO...

Edited by arbman, 05 April 2012 - 04:58 AM.