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> Hurst
Echo
post Apr 7 2012, 12:33 PM
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Hurst works best when there is cyclicity, duh, and we have had a straight line move up since Dec 20, 2011.
Hence I have not commented on shorter cycles, none were too evident to me. This is not unexpected after the 80wk low. The larger cycles might be more instructive.

The March 2009 low came in at 81 wks. It ran late as is typical in bear markets. The July 1 2010 Hurst 80wk low came in at 69wks. Much shorter. Assuming that Oct 4, 2011 was the next "obvious price low on the charts" 80wk low, that came in at 66wks, amazing. The shortening of cycles is typical of bull markets and is likely due to the financial system awash in liquidity.

Using the more recent cycle lengths only of 66-69wks for the Hurst 80wk cycle, the Hurst 40wk cycle would be expected to run 33-34.5 wks.

We are now 26.6 wks along since the Oct 4 bottom suggesting that a 40 wk low is due in 6.5 to 8 wks. This targets the last 2 weeks in May or very early June at the latest. It would also suggest that we are in the last 10wk cycle of this 40wk cycle as each would be expected to run 8.25-8.50wks. There are no downside targets as we are local highs even this past week.

Doc
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jjc
post Apr 7 2012, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE (Echo @ Apr 7 2012, 01:33 PM) *
Hurst works best when there is cyclicity, duh, and we have had a straight line move up since Dec 20, 2011.
Hence I have not commented on shorter cycles, none were too evident to me. This is not unexpected after the 80wk low. The larger cycles might be more instructive.

The March 2009 low came in at 81 wks. It ran late as is typical in bear markets. The July 1 2010 Hurst 80wk low came in at 69wks. Much shorter. Assuming that Oct 4, 2011 was the next "obvious price low on the charts" 80wk low, that came in at 66wks, amazing. The shortening of cycles is typical of bull markets and is likely due to the financial system awash in liquidity.

Using the more recent cycle lengths only of 66-69wks for the Hurst 80wk cycle, the Hurst 40wk cycle would be expected to run 33-34.5 wks.

We are now 26.6 wks along since the Oct 4 bottom suggesting that a 40 wk low is due in 6.5 to 8 wks. This targets the last 2 weeks in May or very early June at the latest. It would also suggest that we are in the last 10wk cycle of this 40wk cycle as each would be expected to run 8.25-8.50wks. There are no downside targets as we are local highs even this past week.

Doc

Thanks Doc,
always apprec your take.

jjc
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fluid
post Apr 7 2012, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE (Echo @ Apr 7 2012, 12:33 PM) *
Hurst works best when there is cyclicity, duh, and we have had a straight line move up since Dec 20, 2011.
Hence I have not commented on shorter cycles, none were too evident to me. This is not unexpected after the 80wk low. The larger cycles might be more instructive.

The March 2009 low came in at 81 wks. It ran late as is typical in bear markets. The July 1 2010 Hurst 80wk low came in at 69wks. Much shorter. Assuming that Oct 4, 2011 was the next "obvious price low on the charts" 80wk low, that came in at 66wks, amazing. The shortening of cycles is typical of bull markets and is likely due to the financial system awash in liquidity.

Using the more recent cycle lengths only of 66-69wks for the Hurst 80wk cycle, the Hurst 40wk cycle would be expected to run 33-34.5 wks.

We are now 26.6 wks along since the Oct 4 bottom suggesting that a 40 wk low is due in 6.5 to 8 wks. This targets the last 2 weeks in May or very early June at the latest. It would also suggest that we are in the last 10wk cycle of this 40wk cycle as each would be expected to run 8.25-8.50wks. There are no downside targets as we are local highs even this past week.

Doc


I have NEVER EVER found cycles reliable and predicable enough to be able to trade off, have you?

Thank you for the posting.
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.Blizzard
post Apr 7 2012, 05:01 PM
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the third movement is based on the Fibonacci sequence as this "written-out accelerando/ritardando" uses the rhythm 1:2:3:5:8:5:3:2:1.
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Rogerdodger
post Apr 8 2012, 08:37 AM
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Hi Doc. Good to hear from you again on HURST.
Late May??? laugh.gif
Guess I'll have to add you to the list:
Voltaire, Bradley & Armstrong... Could they all be right?
QUOTE (Rogerdodger @ Apr 4 2012, 09:23 AM) *
The Bradley had March 16th as a turn. A look at the NYSE shows it was.
Now do we have weakness up to May 30th, (coincidentally the day of Voltaire's death in 1778)?
QUOTE (voltaire @ Mar 7 2012, 10:17 PM) *
I probably posted this info before.

Armstrong theory suggested the up leg from the Mar 6 2009 SPX low would be Apr 30 2011.
That was a weekend and the actual top was next trading day. Yes we just pipped that the other day before pulling back.
Armstrong logic suggests the leg down ends May 26 2012. Once again that is a weekend and even though one should watch Friday and Monday, perhaps the top behaviour suggests May 28 2012 is the more likely.

Gann lovers would appreciate we had an SPX low on Nov 25 2011 and that 6 months or 180 degrees from there is May 26 2012. 30/60/90/120/180 etc degrees are always significant. Degrees are just a little different from calendar days as we have 360 degrees in a year instead of 365/6 days.

The Decennial or 10 year US cycle calls for a major low mid year with no specific date, but May/Jul is the area.

Finally we have the Presidential or 4 year cycle as shown below. That seems to also point at that May 26 2012 area approx.
Does it make it a dead cert? No!



QUOTE
It would be amazing if we don't get a mid year low.
The 30 month cycle suggests an Oct/Nov low as well.
Another 17 month decline fits either Oct 2012 OR July 2013. Happy with either or both.



This post has been edited by Rogerdodger: Apr 8 2012, 08:40 AM


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fib_1618
post Apr 8 2012, 09:56 AM
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Voltaire, Bradley, Armstrong and Hurst smile.gif



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Echo
post Apr 8 2012, 11:59 AM
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QUOTE (fib_1618 @ Apr 8 2012, 09:56 AM) *
Voltaire, Bradley, Armstrong and Hurst smile.gif




Actually, from left to right, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, Mario Draghi, Mario Monti...
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jjc
post Apr 8 2012, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE (Echo @ Apr 8 2012, 11:59 AM) *
QUOTE (fib_1618 @ Apr 8 2012, 09:56 AM) *
Voltaire, Bradley, Armstrong and Hurst smile.gif



Actually, from left to right, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, Mario Draghi, Mario Monti...

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