I'll give this market 18-20 days of upside yet and that should be all she wrote.
INDU to 13100 or so.
SPX to 1390 or so.
CompQ to 3025 or so.
NDX to 2700 or so.
All will be much lower this Fall IMHO! Alan
I'll Give This Market
Started by
CRUISENAL
, Jul 17 2012 09:11 AM
3 replies to this topic
#2
opinionated
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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:19 AM
Agree IT but thoughts on the next 4 days (rolf) I was/am looking for those numbers thia week.
O
#3
outsider
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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:28 PM
Alan:
Do you think we will stay down after the Fall? Why do you think another great depression is coming? Seems to me, China/India are just getting started and I've seen that Seniors are doing well/best as a demographic group. Also, won't the unprecedented stimulus start to take hold? Even the 1% will forsake their philosophical positions on government controls/taxes when huge profits to be made. Sorry, JMHO....
Outsider
Do you think we will stay down after the Fall? Why do you think another great depression is coming? Seems to me, China/India are just getting started and I've seen that Seniors are doing well/best as a demographic group. Also, won't the unprecedented stimulus start to take hold? Even the 1% will forsake their philosophical positions on government controls/taxes when huge profits to be made. Sorry, JMHO....
Outsider
I'll give this market 18-20 days of upside yet and that should be all she wrote.
INDU to 13100 or so.
SPX to 1390 or so.
CompQ to 3025 or so.
NDX to 2700 or so.
All will be much lower this Fall IMHO! Alan
#4
CRUISENAL
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Member
Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:18 PM
Out, Yes I do think it will stay down, I think we are looking at 8-10 years of trouble before we get the next Bull Market. Big Bad Bears last for several years. Big Bad Bulls do too, even longer. I just believe we are in a big secular bear that will last longer than most expect. And I think if the POTUS is re-elected, we will see more of the same and it will gradually get worse and worse. Just seems to me like it all feels like the 70's all over again and it took a different elected president to turn the tide with a different plan. The current plan is surely not working well. I think if no change is made in the right direction, and that means whoever gets elected, the problems will get worse for years. It takes two years just to get new policy in place, so if Obama gets re-elected, your not going to get the change needed to change direction and you get 4 more years of the same, plus 2 more when the new POTUS is elected 4 years later because the policy change takes that long after the election. So minimally we are looking at the end of 2014 and if O is elected you looking at 2018 befor a possible change in direction. It is better if sooner, but I won't be surprised if it's 2018.
Why another GD? Public and Private debt, the savings rate is way to low, so I see people re-trenching, saving and paying off debt for years until the savings rate gets to 10-12%. This takes away purchasing power and slows the economy. It drives wages and prices of goods down until demand exceeds supply. So I see an over supply and lack of purchasing in the next few years. Once prices get to a point that you can't afford the item you want, you don't buy until it's priced right. I want value pricing. Fo example, I live on a Lake in the summer in northern Indiana. There are allot of ski boats on the lake, mostly Correct Craft boats. Recently they had two setting on the showroom floor priced at $100,000.00 each. A 24' Pontoon boat at $57,000.00. It wasn't 5 years ago you could pay $50K for the 100K boat. They are all out of my league, but there are people here still buying these boats. Look at cars. Most are overpriced IMO. I think it is coming for a time for deals and value. Not a time for overpriceing. So I think the next few years we will see allot more value. And that means stocks will become a much better value once the froth is done away with. I want to see the S&P PE at under 10 and like 7 or 8. All Bears in the past have made it to this level and I suspect this market will too, but I don't think it will be by earnings growth, more like price declines. Just my take on it.
We have had stimulus for 4-5 years and where has that got us. Just stalled the inevitable!
Seniors? I happen to be in that class at almost 62. Been retired for 10 years now. I do not see seniors bailing out this situation. Think about increased taxes next year and on. Puts less money in seniors and everyone else's pockets. There goes that buying power. Most seniors have trouble just getting by that I know. And most of them are not in there spending cycle. They save in retirement as they don't know how long they will live but the longer they live the more money they need. And then think about if inflation were to ever kick in like in the late 70's early 80's. And where are all the seniors earning that 7% interest that used to be there years ago. Now that is 0.0 to .50% and it don't buy much after taxes. Many seniors are not well off and SS barely pays the bills. I know one, my mother in lat at 86 and get buy on $850.00 a month and on Medicaid. She spends little to nothing on extras and there are thousands of these people. And then you have all those seniors wanting to retire but have to work instead because they didn't or couldn't save enough.
So I have little faith in what is happening here in the US. IMHO it's a quite bad situation for many.
May I suggest to all, retirement years come sooner than you think. Seems like it was only yesterday when I started working. Time moves along quicker than you think. So start to save as soon as you can and keep it up for 40+ years and you should be ok. If you don't, your lack of investment in savings will put you in the poor house.
That's about it. Alan
Why another GD? Public and Private debt, the savings rate is way to low, so I see people re-trenching, saving and paying off debt for years until the savings rate gets to 10-12%. This takes away purchasing power and slows the economy. It drives wages and prices of goods down until demand exceeds supply. So I see an over supply and lack of purchasing in the next few years. Once prices get to a point that you can't afford the item you want, you don't buy until it's priced right. I want value pricing. Fo example, I live on a Lake in the summer in northern Indiana. There are allot of ski boats on the lake, mostly Correct Craft boats. Recently they had two setting on the showroom floor priced at $100,000.00 each. A 24' Pontoon boat at $57,000.00. It wasn't 5 years ago you could pay $50K for the 100K boat. They are all out of my league, but there are people here still buying these boats. Look at cars. Most are overpriced IMO. I think it is coming for a time for deals and value. Not a time for overpriceing. So I think the next few years we will see allot more value. And that means stocks will become a much better value once the froth is done away with. I want to see the S&P PE at under 10 and like 7 or 8. All Bears in the past have made it to this level and I suspect this market will too, but I don't think it will be by earnings growth, more like price declines. Just my take on it.
We have had stimulus for 4-5 years and where has that got us. Just stalled the inevitable!
Seniors? I happen to be in that class at almost 62. Been retired for 10 years now. I do not see seniors bailing out this situation. Think about increased taxes next year and on. Puts less money in seniors and everyone else's pockets. There goes that buying power. Most seniors have trouble just getting by that I know. And most of them are not in there spending cycle. They save in retirement as they don't know how long they will live but the longer they live the more money they need. And then think about if inflation were to ever kick in like in the late 70's early 80's. And where are all the seniors earning that 7% interest that used to be there years ago. Now that is 0.0 to .50% and it don't buy much after taxes. Many seniors are not well off and SS barely pays the bills. I know one, my mother in lat at 86 and get buy on $850.00 a month and on Medicaid. She spends little to nothing on extras and there are thousands of these people. And then you have all those seniors wanting to retire but have to work instead because they didn't or couldn't save enough.
So I have little faith in what is happening here in the US. IMHO it's a quite bad situation for many.
May I suggest to all, retirement years come sooner than you think. Seems like it was only yesterday when I started working. Time moves along quicker than you think. So start to save as soon as you can and keep it up for 40+ years and you should be ok. If you don't, your lack of investment in savings will put you in the poor house.
That's about it. Alan
Alan:
Do you think we will stay down after the Fall? Why do you think another great depression is coming? Seems to me, China/India are just getting started and I've seen that Seniors are doing well/best as a demographic group. Also, won't the unprecedented stimulus start to take hold? Even the 1% will forsake their philosophical positions on government controls/taxes when huge profits to be made. Sorry, JMHO....
Outsider
I'll give this market 18-20 days of upside yet and that should be all she wrote.
INDU to 13100 or so.
SPX to 1390 or so.
CompQ to 3025 or so.
NDX to 2700 or so.
All will be much lower this Fall IMHO! Alan
