6 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

Had to bring this up here too as a heads up. The last 6 times we were around these low readings from just before 2009 lows were bottoms or within a week of bottoms with one exception... the 2009 low it was about 7% lower and about 200 points of drop from where we are. What I get from this is any big drop is going to have the largest rally since 2009 lows or the central banks are close to announcing some crazy scheme and the markets launch. Boy what a rally if we do take them down first. Going to be epic. Well I thought we all needed to think about it.

[Dex]

Had to bring this up here too as a heads up.


The last 6 times we were around these low readings from just before 2009 lows were bottoms or within a week of bottoms with one exception... the 2009 low it was about 7% lower and about 200 points of drop from where we are. What I get from this is any big drop is going to have the largest rally since 2009 lows or the central banks are close to announcing some crazy scheme and the markets launch.

Boy what a rally if we do take them down first. Going to be epic.

Well I thought we all needed to think about it.

200 on what index?

Their longer term averages are pretty mixed and I'm guess more representative of the general public.

Long-Term Average:

Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%

[zoropb]

SPX

[risk_management]

Z, I think you bring up a great topic and I've been having similar thoughts lately. It's just a question how it will all play out. Short term I think we are approaching a turn but I don't know if it's going to be full blown turn or just a pullback with more grind up into the end of the month. As far as your comment about central banks announcing some crazy scheme, I fully agree and anticipate the same. The question is exactly when and how to recognize it's signs.

I thought that gold/xau is always the first one to smell money schemes like that. Right now it barely has a pulse. Actually, if you look at this chart, http://stockcharts.c...id=p79619215278
one can make a decent argument that market needs to correct quite a bit. Maybe this time is different but if it isn't, then I'd think xau will again be the first to act.

Another thing. I think gann global merits some attention. The guy is unique and does nothing but statistically sort out bull and bear markets. He's been advocating 60 year cycle with (commodities) low around Oct/Nov timeframe followed by a monster run. Who knows, it might all sync up.

[Dex]

Thanks,

The posting around here has been rather quiet to me and civil to me. So, we might be at a top.

'T' Theory is calling for a decline into January

This guy says it is time for the 3rd down leg of a secular bear market
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=140911

[Dex]

. As far as your comment about central banks announcing some crazy scheme, I fully agree and anticipate the same.

But will it come before a huge decline or during/after?

Europe has been quiet lately. I'm not sure if there is some trigger (Greek bailout goal, Spain refinance etc.) coming up in the next few months, Aug, Sept, Oct?

[Dex]

Another thing. I think gann global merits some attention. The guy is unique and does nothing but statistically sort out bull and bear markets. He's been advocating 60 year cycle with (commodities) low around Oct/Nov timeframe followed by a monster run. Who knows, it might all sync up.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Have you checked out RJA