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You Must Be Joking


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#1 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 08:50 AM

We've got only 2 partially long bulls in the position polls above??? 76% of the pollees are bearish with either partially short or fully short positions??? And we gap down? This ought to be an good. IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 08 August 2012 - 08:51 AM.


#2 TechMan

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:22 AM

We've got only 2 partially long bulls in the position polls above??? 76% of the pollees are bearish with either partially short or fully short positions??? And we gap down? This ought to be an good.

IT


Did you vote?

#3 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:28 AM

We've got only 2 partially long bulls in the position polls above??? 76% of the pollees are bearish with either partially short or fully short positions??? And we gap down? This ought to be an good.

IT


Did you vote?


No, did you?

IT

#4 TechMan

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:30 AM

We've got only 2 partially long bulls in the position polls above??? 76% of the pollees are bearish with either partially short or fully short positions??? And we gap down? This ought to be an good.

IT


Did you vote?


No, did you?

IT



Well, there you go.

And, yes, I did vote.

#5 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:33 AM

So your point is that bulls did not vote but bears did, and therefore the results of the poll are invalid? IT

#6 TechMan

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:36 AM

So your point is that bulls did not vote but bears did, and therefore the results of the poll are invalid?

IT


Not necessarily invalid, but perhaps unreliable at times. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't.

Most members don't vote. We've got hundreds of views on each and every thread, but we've always got just 20-30 votes on the daily polls. I've always tried to follow my motto of "ask not what your forum can do for you" as much as possible.

#7 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:48 AM

It is true that a smaller percentage of members vote. But I think I would have put it differently. I think it is wrong sometimes, but my perception is that in general you would be well-served as a very short term traders to fading results of this type. I've never kept track though. Mark is the keeper of this data, perhaps he'll chime in. Interestingly, it's shown a large percentage of bears now for a number of days, while the market is probing higher highs for this run, and nearing the highs around 1410 on the futures. So the question is can the plurality of bears correctly call the top? My answer would be they haven't many, so I'll be surprised if they correctly call it now. So, we'll see. IT

#8 selecto

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 09:55 AM

I believe Mark issues FL/FS signals (fully long-fully short, and I think he also has a signal based on board activity.

#9 Rogerdodger

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:06 AM

Last week I noted several days of strongly bearish sentiment here.
Markets are higher now.

I opined that "We may see too many bears too soon?"

The Constraint continues

Edited by Rogerdodger, 08 August 2012 - 10:10 AM.


#10 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:18 AM

Last week I noted several days of strongly bearish sentiment here.
Markets are higher now.

I opined that "We may see too many bears too soon?"

The Constraint continues


Actually I think the sentiment poll has been giving strongly bearish sentiment since the June bottom. Not every day, but a majority of days. And especially the last week or two. Based on that it appears that traders, at least here, have been fading this rally all the way up.

IT