282 replies to this topic

[beta]

Tria, I think your "3" wave is too short relative to 1-2 and also in duration. I believe "3" ends around 1820 then a slow grind ack down to 1680, followed by the "5" up to 2000.

[stubaby]

Weekly Cot Reports:

Silver Cot
Gold Cot

Although this data is as of Tuesday, September 18th.

Since close on Monday 8/20 (one month of Cot movement):



Appears commercials "added" to positions through 9-18 on the breakouts from the weeks prior! Cots are now at extreme levels - even LOWER than those seen the last week of February 2012, when Gold dropped from 1,792.70 to 1,526.70 (14.8%) and Silver dropped from 37.58 to 26.10 (30.5%)

Will be interesting to see IF we finally get a reaction and some retracement in these prices:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p36656467421&a=259871919&r=1143.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p23692552568&a=278411869&r=1348351091869.png

GLD/SLV says YES!: http://stockcharts.c...71968&r=785.png

OR
upon a breakout above 1,805 and 37.58 a "short-covering" launch higher?

stubaby

[stubaby]

WOW! Regardless of the "excitement" in the PM's coming as a result of this "kick-off" impulse move higher:

• the obvious sentiment shift turning Bullish
• COT's turning heavily negative
• Obvious Chart resistance levels
• traders outright selling or hedging with short positions
• those "not in" salivating to buy heavily on the corrective

WHAT IF.......



stubaby

[tria]

WOW! Regardless of the "excitement" in the PM's coming as a result of this "kick-off" impulse move higher:

• the obvious sentiment shift turning Bullish
• COT's turning heavily negative
• Obvious Chart resistance levels
• traders outright selling or hedging with short positions
• those "not in" salivating to buy heavily on the corrective

WHAT IF.......



stubaby

[tria]

WOW! Regardless of the "excitement" in the PM's coming as a result of this "kick-off" impulse move higher:

• the obvious sentiment shift turning Bullish
• COT's turning heavily negative
• Obvious Chart resistance levels
• traders outright selling or hedging with short positions
• those "not in" salivating to buy heavily on the corrective

WHAT IF.......



stubaby

stu,

The COT report for Silver was as bearish in early Jan 2011 as it is now (Commercials 50K contracts short).
This did not stop Silver going from $30 to almost $50 from early Jan to late April 2011.

http://snalaska.com/cot/11/SI.png

That being said, I believe we are building a short/medium term top to be completed at the latest by early October if not already.
I will take the middle road and instead of

I think and will

My thinking for this week is that we may test the 1780 level once more early in the week and then drop by week's end.

-tria

[stubaby]

WOW! Regardless of the "excitement" in the PM's coming as a result of this "kick-off" impulse move higher:

• the obvious sentiment shift turning Bullish
• COT's turning heavily negative
• Obvious Chart resistance levels
• traders outright selling or hedging with short positions
• those "not in" salivating to buy heavily on the corrective

WHAT IF.......



stubaby

stu,

The COT report for Silver was as bearish in early Jan 2011 as it is now (Commercials 50K contracts short).
This did not stop Silver going from $30 to almost $50 from early Jan to late April 2011.

http://snalaska.com/cot/11/SI.png

That being said, I believe we are building a short/medium term top to be completed at the latest by early October if not already.
I will take the middle road and instead of

I think and will

My thinking for this week is that we may test the 1780 level once more early in the week and then drop by week's end.

-tria

tria:


I ALWAYS take the middle road - raised stop-losses earlier today + holding cash for buying. One thing for sure, this market has become much more interesting again vs the grind grind grind lower for what seemed like an eternity (esp in the miners)!


stubaby

PS I'm with you on the top and corrective, but when things become somewhat obvious - I begin to worry and ALWAYS try to think contrarian!

[tria]

stubaby,

If there were not so numerous World wide boilling points, I would sleep like a baby being short in small size in trading account. Since this is not the case. I stay alert and sleep like a

BTW, Silver's leasing rates are near the danger zone as well, judging from recent history.

http://www.kitco.com...chart.silv.html

-tria

[dharma]

looking @the cot by itself could be misleading. keep in mind that during the crude run, the commercials became very bearish and got taken to the cleaners as crude went to 142. i think to get a true reading and understanding of the cot . it has to be kept as a ratio to open interest. as the bull goes higher oi expands. so is the cot commercial short position expanding w/oi?? 1773 is the end of a price cycle. of course there is going to be resistance. the way i read the gann work is the resistance goes to 1813. couple the resistance w/ an overbought condition and you have the makings for a correction. i may be wrong, but i dont think the time is up for this upmove. i do see a correction in october, but not yet. @this point the smart money sees corrections as buying opportunities. sterilization or qe have been announced as open ended. the currency is going to be debased in a big way. its rare that the broads make a high in august. the last time was 87 and that resulted in a real drubbing of oct of that year. i believe that miners will be the place to be as the bull continues. if you go the explorer route, know what you are doing. not all of them are viable dharma

[tria]

looking @the cot by itself could be misleading. keep in mind that during the crude run, the commercials became very bearish and got taken to the cleaners as crude went to 142. i think to get a true reading and understanding of the cot . it has to be kept as a ratio to open interest. as the bull goes higher oi expands. so is the cot commercial short position expanding w/oi??
1773 is the end of a price cycle. of course there is going to be resistance. the way i read the gann work is the resistance goes to 1813. couple the resistance w/ an overbought condition and you have the makings for a correction. i may be wrong, but i dont think the time is up for this upmove. i do see a correction in october, but not yet. @this point the smart money sees corrections as buying opportunities. sterilization or qe have been announced as open ended. the currency is going to be debased in a big way.
its rare that the broads make a high in august. the last time was 87 and that resulted in a real drubbing of oct of that year.
i believe that miners will be the place to be as the bull continues. if you go the explorer route, know what you are doing. not all of them are viable
dharma

Dharma,

I do not see any noticeable increase in Silver futures OI in this last run-up. In fact OI is about 30% less than what it was in Jan 2011 when the COT was as bearish as now.

There maybe a higher or a lower high in early October before a more meaningful correction starts. Could be the b of an a-b-c or whatever.

The broads did not make a high in August this year.

Pls try to undestand I AM NOT BEARISH. I locked in some profits in my overall portfolio and hope that I am wrong and Gold goes ballistic soon. I have much more to gain than to loose if I am wrong. Will have just a smile if Gold corrects now or in October.

I bought NAK last month and it doubled. The price was too inviting but the timming was pure luck.

-tria

[tria]

dharma, I forgot to attach Silver's OI during the last 3 years.

http://www.barchart....p;txtDate=#jump

-tria