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> Puetz crash window remains, Open: info here
fluid
post Nov 13 2012, 04:23 PM
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Interesting how these things converge:

There is a lunar eclipse later in the month so we are apparently in a Puetz window

Per Steve Puetz, the eclipse "crash window" is supposed to be from 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within six weeks of a solar eclipse, but most often panics occur around the time of a lunar eclipse two weeks after a solar eclipse:


"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
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Taz
post Nov 13 2012, 05:33 PM
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My understanding is that the eclipse must be a total solar eclipse (which is now) so the crash window (which is usually a lower high) is the 6 days prior to 3 market days after the full moon at the end of this month. The full moon at the end of December also comes into play because the next full moon is also a partial eclipse.

Taz
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nimblebear
post Nov 13 2012, 07:28 PM
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QUOTE (Taz @ Nov 13 2012, 04:33 PM) *
My understanding is that the eclipse must be a total solar eclipse (which is now) so the crash window (which is usually a lower high) is the 6 days prior to 3 market days after the full moon at the end of this month. The full moon at the end of December also comes into play because the next full moon is also a partial eclipse.

Taz

the only thing crashing is my dog after a long hike in the woods. rolleyes.gif



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fluid
post Nov 14 2012, 07:34 AM
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Thanks Taz. Its clearly a lower probabiity event but it does seem somewhat concidental with what has happen in the past and reliability.
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