6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

AAII members are:
(as of 2/27/2013)
Bullish: 28.39%
Neutral: 35.02%
Bearish: 36.59%

NAAIM drops from 91 to 82




Bulls/Bulls + Bears:
AAII (as of 2/27/2013) 44%
NAAIM (02/27/2013) = 82.77

Tickersense 3/01/2013 37%
AAII (as of 2/20/2013) 56%
NAAIM (02/20/2013) = 91.07

Tickersense 2/22/2013 33%
AAII (as of 2/13/2013) 59%
NAAIM (02/13/2013) = 89.95

Tickersense 02/15/13 63%
AAII (as of 2/6/2013) 59%
NAAIM (02/06/2013) = 94.04

Tickersense 02/08/13 53%
AAII (as of 1/30/2013) 66%
NAAIM (01/30/2013) = 104.25

Edited by Rogerdodger, 28 February 2013 - 11:56 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Mike Burk's updated March chart makes me think the increasing bearishness may give way to more upside.
I'm thinking they'll keep selling rallies in preparation for mid-month "ides" heading into the cliff.
Selling the rallies jacks up the bears who fuel the next pump rally.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 28 February 2013 - 11:40 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Sentimentrader.com:

February 28, 2013
The volatility stocks have undergone during the past week has flushed out a large number of bulls among individual investors.
They've fled to one of the largest degrees ever during a positive market.



But they also mention some of the troublesome signals being given recently.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 March 2013 - 12:10 AM.

[viccarter]

I know I touched on that AAII bullish percentage drop off in my post. Troublesome to say the least if bearish. I guess it could be a scenario where we dropped a little now, but we back higher on a weekly basis. As I am sure followers of those number are aware, extreme rates of change in the AAII numbers do not fare so well for the market going that direction. In other words when a lot of bulls get less bullish, that has traditionally not been a great time to call a top. I guess alot of us here at TT do keep those contrarian thoughts as Denelo pointed out y'day.

[viccarter]

Oh, and thanks for the link to those OK film projects coming out. A couple of those look really interesting. Anyone here get a chance to see that play live?

[tomterrific14]

http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

See chart..."When bullish percentage drops from above 40% to below 30%" at bottom of page.

[Rogerdodger]

http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

See chart..."When bullish percentage drops from above 40% to below 30%" at bottom of page.

I think I have heard Mark Young make a similar point here at TT.

I took that data and just looked at prior instances when the bullish percentage went below 30% after coming down from being above 40% bullish, and it gives a little more of a negative outlook with all 4 instances since early 2011 being closer to peaks than bottoms.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 March 2013 - 10:32 PM.