10 year treasury futures ... Breakdown coming ?
Started by
ogm
, May 22 2013 05:58 PM
4 replies to this topic
#1
ogm
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Posted 22 May 2013 - 05:58 PM
A little bit oversold, otherwise, this looks like this may crack violently, leaving all the dividend yield chasers and junk bond bubble leveragers bewildered.
#2
ogm
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Posted 22 May 2013 - 06:01 PM
And here is a bonus chart...
10 year yield and SPX dividend yield are now about even. The difference is with treasuries you get principal back. With SPX its anyone's guess.
10 year yield and SPX dividend yield are now about even. The difference is with treasuries you get principal back. With SPX its anyone's guess.
#3
fib_1618
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Posted 22 May 2013 - 06:19 PM
...this looks like this may crack violently
Then one might want to "run to the safety" of treasuries if given the choice?The difference is with treasuries you get principal back.
Fib
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#4
andiron
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Posted 22 May 2013 - 06:42 PM
nope..treasuries NOT going to sell off..
anticipated 10 yr yield range in the next 2 yrs: 2.5-1.5..
#5
ogm
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Posted 22 May 2013 - 07:55 PM
nope..treasuries NOT going to sell off..
anticipated 10 yr yield range in the next 2 yrs: 2.5-1.5..
I'm not bearish on treasuries, but that chart does look suspect, considering volume. However between the shrinking deficit and Fed purchases the supply of new issuance isn't overwhelming. And they will definitely find buyers, especially from Japan.
Japaneese bond market is getting halted just about every day now due to massive selling and yields spike. And all that money is flowing out of JGB's and out of Yen into the US dollar.
JGB's are now yielding 1%. Funny fact... at 3% yield all taxes collected by Japaneese government will go to cover interest on JGB's.
Edited by ogm, 22 May 2013 - 07:59 PM.
