5 replies to this topic

[NAV]

When an orderly trend gets violent with volatility expansion, it's a change in market characteristic, which precedes a trend change. SPX hourly has given me a sell today @ 1658. This is the 5th hourly sell since the nov 2012 bottom. Daily remains firmly in an uptrend.

[CLK]

Will you be waiting for a bounce to short now ?

[NAV]

Will you be waiting for a bounce to short now ?

CLK,

Always. I never trade pivot breaks. They require huge stops.

Shorting the retracement failure gives you a smaller stop and the retracement failure acts as double confirmation and you avoid the risk of getting trapped in false pivot breaks.

The morgans and the goldmans exited India's Nifty 2 days back. I am short there already. Same pattern in SPX with a 2 day lag.

[NAV]

Will you be waiting for a bounce to short now ?

CLK,

Always. I never trade pivot breaks. They require huge stops.

Shorting the retracement failure gives you a smaller stop and the retracement failure acts as double confirmation and you avoid the risk of getting trapped in false pivot breaks.

The morgans and the goldmans exited India's Nifty 2 days back. I am short there already. Same pattern in SPX with a 2 day lag.

[risk_management]

When an orderly trend gets violent with volatility expansion, it's a change in market characteristic, which precedes a trend change. SPX hourly has given me a sell today @ 1658. This is the 5th hourly sell since the nov 2012 bottom. Daily remains firmly in an uptrend.

Nav, I'd like to ask you couple of questions if I may. What's your favorite retracement? Or does it vary based on slope/angle or some other variable?

Also, per your system, what level needs to be broken to change the daily? I see last pivot low at 1530.75 but that's a long way from here.

TIA

[NAV]

When an orderly trend gets violent with volatility expansion, it's a change in market characteristic, which precedes a trend change. SPX hourly has given me a sell today @ 1658. This is the 5th hourly sell since the nov 2012 bottom. Daily remains firmly in an uptrend.

Nav, I'd like to ask you couple of questions if I may. What's your favorite retracement? Or does it vary based on slope/angle or some other variable?

Also, per your system, what level needs to be broken to change the daily? I see last pivot low at 1530.75 but that's a long way from here.

TIA

At least 23.6 % retrace ( ideally 38.1 retrace or more) or watch the hourly 8 EMA turn up and fail before you short.

It's waaaaay too early to talk about daily pivot break. It's at SPX 1536. Very far away. In a parabolic advance without proper pullbacks and pivots formation along the way, the markets have no support when they break. That's the danger of parabolic rises. As long as they are rising don't even think about shorting them. When they break with violence, tighten your stops quickly. If you are complacent you will see all your gains wiped out in no time.

Edited by NAV, 22 May 2013 - 11:19 PM.