5 replies to this topic

[tommyt]

it doesnt look like people were buying many puts the last two down days. Maybe todays data not in there yet?:

P/C

Edited by tommyt, 23 May 2013 - 04:16 PM.

[fib_1618]

ISEE at 87...not quite an extreme at 80, but close enough for a bottom within an aggressive uptrend. Fib

[arbman]

ISE equities was over 200 at the open, a lot of bottom picking, absolutely no fear imho... BTW, it closed around 142 yesterday, highest in a month, despite the decline. I think we may see below 1630 very soon, probably next week...

Edited by arbman, 23 May 2013 - 04:43 PM.

[fib_1618]

BTW, it closed around 142 yesterday, highest in a month, despite the decline.

No, that was Tuesday's number...Wednesday's was 105.

And in my experience, just like the market itself, all that counts is how things close when everything is matched up.

Hard to trade on emotional reactions intraday...just too many variables to mean anything but gibberish.

Fib

[PrintFaster]

ES futures grinding up with the U.S. Dollar again. Gold, silver, AUD, CAD, etc. all getting sold off again. The "Perpetual Motion Machine" lead by U.S. Consumer stocks continues unabated.

[arbman]

I wish I could trade these markets based on consumer, Ben or anything else external... But the speculative pile up till 1680s since last week vs the "somewhat" lagging internals in May have kept me selling this market. I sometimes comment on the sentiment and fundamentals, but most of my work is based on the cycles within breadth, its momentum in the first place and the leadership within the breadth... I thought the leadership was mostly in energy since last week leading to highs, but we all came to accept that this market was capable of going higher on pure liquidity injections or strong breadth with sucky leadership. Then the breadth showed slight signs of divergences such as a few price highs before the cumulative breadth and finally in total divergence with the breadth momentum, and leadership in energy. I have a simple logarithmic fit to the prices about the possible top to the unsustainable nature of the parabolic advance, and the top was called for last Thusday, then it got extended a bit until early this week and finally the prices really tried to push one last time on Wednesday, but you knew the parabolic acceleration necessary to sustain it was not there anymore... Clearly this is still not a long, perhaps not a very aggressive short, but we should still see at least a consolidation. However, the experience and the history shows that the reversal from such tops have usually been very volatile. So I opened limited short exposure for now down to low 1600s for 1-2 weeks. So far, it was the right decision, the caveat here is the Memorial Day weekend, perhaps we may see a quick retracement rally next week as well... Otherwise the call is a low in the first part of June, possibly down to breakaway gap around 1600...