10 replies to this topic

[kssmibotm]

Here is a good read from one of my favorite financial bloggers, Jeff Miller at "A Dash of Insight".

http://oldprof.typep...a-fig-leaf.html

KMB

[Dex]

"My Dow 20K concept is designed to set you free -- to get you thinking about the long sweep of history and the potential for success. If even a few of these things happen, what would be the market reaction? " AND, not date for it to get there.

So that is what da_chief looks like.

He mixes fundamental analysis, with macro economics and politics.

The bears don't need to read it.

Most of the points he raises are in the market.

http://mutualfunds.a...omic-Cycles.htm

Edited by Dex, 24 May 2013 - 11:31 AM.

[Dex]

double post.

Edited by Dex, 24 May 2013 - 11:31 AM.

[Data]

Pretty useless link. He's taking shots at other people. Most of The problem with his analysis is that there are other factors that offset the Fed's injection so that it will appear to act with a lead or a lag. Issuance of treasury debt is one factor. Fiscal policy is another as we saw at the end of last year. What's going on with debt markets overseas has frequently impacted the markets here. He's also using the M2 money supply measure as a coincident indicator for the stock market. Has it ever been effective in the past?

Edited by Data, 24 May 2013 - 11:41 AM.

[selecto]

Nice thing about the internets is that no matter one's bias, one can always find support.

[SemiBizz]

Nope, this is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED for the BULLS.... There's not one ounce of technicals in there that are useful for trading... Zip Nice to know what you think is pertinent, however. Filed.

[ogm]

His list of "What Ifs" is as good s the bears list. What if mortgage rates remain low ? .. irrelevant. What matters is the difference in rates. If they were 6% and now they are 3 , yes thats bullish. But after they've been 3% for a long time they become a normal and have mo more stimulative effect. Better question is... are mortgage rates likely to go lower or higher from 3% ? What if China resumes growth ? ... yes, they didn't build enough empty cities. They need more. And so on ... But its interesting perspective. Thank you for posting.

Edited by ogm, 24 May 2013 - 12:29 PM.

[pdx5]

What if unemployment falls to 8%? -- that is a long way off from current REAL unemployment rate -- including those who have given up looking, those who are -- working part time in jobs unrelated to their skills What if the annual budget deficit is reduced? -- reducing budget deficits does nothing to address the humongous -- overhanging national debt whose servicing costs certainly matter -- especially if interest rates creep up. What if housing prices and sales show a clear bottom? -- putting cart before the horse. Jobs come before housing. -- take away speculator buyers and the picture looks much worse. What if mortgage rates remain low? -- Look at Japan...tells you everything why rates must stay low -- because the government can't afford higher debt service costs What if politicians negotiate a compromise on tax increases? -- any tax increase is counter productive to economic growth What if Europe stabilizes? -- cite me some examples of countries with over-extended debts -- stabilizing in 1000 years of world history What if China and other emerging countries resume a solid growth path? -- The growth in large Asian countries is still very healthy. -- That helps multi-national large companies, but does little for the -- small US businesses who create and employ vast majority of jobs -- in the United States. What if earnings for US companies continue to surge, leaving the 10-year trailing earnings in the dust? -- cart before horse again, first jobs must surge! Again I am talking -- about all US corporations except large multi-nationals. What if the US rationalizes immigration? -- dream on!

Edited by pdx5, 24 May 2013 - 12:44 PM.

[Kimston]

What if we're making a major top in the stock market, and insights/rationalizations like Mr. Miller's are what you should expect to see from a contrarian perspective?

[kssmibotm]

I knew Jeff's blog would stir up the bears. Nice to see all the negativity still percolating in this forum. The market will continue to climb the wall of worry with a few corrections along the way to satisfy the naysayers. Ben will do his best to squelch "irrational exuberance" using words but no actions. KMB