15 replies to this topic

[viccarter]

Now, you have been led through the curvy (not pearly) gates of Temple (not the Temple) Grandlin. You are exposed here to the max. They might stabilize this, and feel good into the holiday. They might retest highs Tuesday or so. Or, we may crash 10% very quickly next week. I do not know bar to bar, because the normal things that happen on the hourly or 15 minute bars in a normal or uptrend market QUIT WORKING in a downtrend. You cannot trade a down move any other way that to just BE SHORT SOME at all times. Now I don't even really even care much about today, Tuesday may try to retest something, maybe, maybe not, but let me tell u what is going to happen. That little ignorant NFP gap from May is gonna fill, and it ain't gonna take that long to do it. I doubt it stops there. Everything is on the table.... 845-860 RUT, one month, one week, one day, I don't know, but on the table. A top that won't been seen again for months/years... on the table. RUT look like APPL on monthly... on the table. But you can count on the PHD under Friedman/U Chicago/ cum Economic Bernake-ist Theorists to pump to last 3% without acknowledging any risks. You should be thinking about how you will play it if we close up +5 on TF today. What if we close up +5 today and gap +10 on Tuesday? What will you do if we gap down Tuesday, will you have any shorts on to participate? How would that change your plans? Whatever you can trade, break into 4 units. You need to be 25% or 1 unit short at all times now. If you get big retraces like today, put another unit short or 50%, that way if we open at RUT 1000 on Tuesday you are only 50% and you won't panic. I do not recommend over 50% short at anytime right now, it will be enough for now. Plan on carrying that 50% until NFP gap fills, then you might close completely or reduce back to 25%. Any day that I get my TRIN signal from here will be a day I go 100% short, but that's a big if at this point. Well, last post for a while I guess. Trade them well. Oh, and PS we had a RSI 5 >72 yesterday change week over week on AAII. Denalo was right in part: sometimes things are contrarian and sometimes not. It is not: this number means this or this oscillator is that. It depends. What I can tell you is that a week over week rate of change MORE EXTREME bullish from past weeks at all time hi's with most index over +2 sigma on monthly, Buddy that is a time to take the contrarian position, so sleep easily over the next few weeks bullz.

[SemiBizz]

I think we'll get a bounce to about 987 here anyway... Although it has been a pathetic bounce off these lows...

Edited by SemiBizz, 24 May 2013 - 11:52 AM.

[selecto]

I believe we have a date with the lower band, which can be kept without damage to the uptrend (20ma). Then we see.

Edited by selecto, 24 May 2013 - 12:03 PM.

[dasein]

yesterday the ISEE index only closed at 50 - bearish - looks like they will do it again today. May's opex was a reall bull celebration - we should get a break next month. enjoy the holiday and keep the memories alive.

[SemiBizz]

We have a date with 954.00, but that's after we exhaust the bounce.

[pdx5]

I think we'll get a bounce to about 987 here anyway...

Although it has been a pathetic bounce off these lows...

Looking at other side of coin, the drop so far has been pathetic compared
to the advance in last 4-5 months.

[fib_1618]

I think we'll get a bounce to about 987 here anyway...

Although it has been a pathetic bounce off these lows...

Looking at other side of coin, the drop so far has been pathetic compared
to the advance in last 4-5 months.

That's because the bears have no control.

Fib

[SemiBizz]

I think we'll get a bounce to about 987 here anyway...

Although it has been a pathetic bounce off these lows...

Looking at other side of coin, the drop so far has been pathetic compared
to the advance in last 4-5 months.

I go by the numbers, RUT hasn't even shown us a .50R of the leg down. that is PATHETIC.

[fib_1618]

I go by the numbers, RUT hasn't even shown us a .50R of the leg down. that is PATHETIC.

But money continues to move in as of this writing...the holiday weekend is dampening prices.

Looking for positive closes at the end of the day in many of the major market averages.

Fib

[PrintFaster]

CBOE Put/Call has been soaring all day.

And the McClellan Oscillator is already below -25 again.

You know what that means.

Bears are about to get jackhammered again.