5 replies to this topic

[CLK]

I believe this is going to new highs, problem is.....NYAD probably will not, here is the hook......NYAD did not in 1999 and the market kept going, if people short this, the covering could be massive, just saying, I want to be reasonable also. Ten minute looks overdone, but can be worked off sideways. Volume says bear market can't happen here, severe correction, yes, but most likely in the fall, not now. Ben has no reason to mess up a good quarter and may even hold the market up until his term is up. Comments ?

[ogm]

They have been preparing the market to the end of QE for the past few weeks. Why would they reassure it in something else now ? All that work, volatility, carry trade and yield trade unwinds... they might as well take advantage of it, rather then go through it all over again. Bernanke leaving at the end of the term seems to be a done deal too, now that Obama has bought it up. He might as well give some certainty to the experimental policy, rather then piling it all on the next guy. So it seems likely that the tapering will be discussed. And the market may not like it, now that it has bloated up 500 DOW points on the hope that Ben wipes everyone's noses again. He'll probably repeat at least 15 times that ending QE doesn't mean fed fund rates going up. But market is so conditioned about QE and doesn't care about Fed funds rate that is assumed to be at 0 forever, that it won't matter.

Edited by ogm, 18 June 2013 - 07:23 PM.

[MikeyG]

I believe this is going to new highs, problem is.....NYAD probably will not, here is the hook......NYAD did not in 1999
and the market kept going, if people short this, the covering could be massive, just saying, I want to be
reasonable also. Ten minute looks overdone, but can be worked off sideways. Volume says bear market can't happen here,
severe correction, yes, but most likely in the fall, not now. Ben has no reason to mess up a good quarter and may even hold the
market up until his term is up.


Comments ?

I think it's a dangerous market that could make new highs...

ST trend clearly up...

I still have an IT sell...

The secular bear will not end until we figure our $100T debt...

In addition, the liquidity is not the same like 1999...

[CLK]

I say wait for new highs then see if the internals mean anything this time.

[tommyt]

I believe this is going to new highs, problem is.....NYAD probably will not, here is the hook......NYAD did not in 1999
and the market kept going, if people short this, the covering could be massive, just saying, I want to be
reasonable also. Ten minute looks overdone, but can be worked off sideways. Volume says bear market can't happen here,
severe correction, yes, but most likely in the fall, not now. Ben has no reason to mess up a good quarter and may even hold the
market up until his term is up.


Comments ?

I say you are over thinking it...pick your spots and do your thing...each trade is only a stop loss at most.

[fib_1618]

In addition, the liquidity is not the same like 1999...

Correct...it's far better, comparably speaking.

Fib