The Trend, How is it decided? Options

[Chart Guru Doug]

I would like hear how traders here decide which way the trend is going. Can you give us your simple description?

Thanks a bunch!

[selecto]

BB centerline (20 sma) with an 18 ema warning and a 7sma signal - in all windows.

"Mojo" also derived from various ma's & technicals of sentiment stuff.

(That's trend, not necessarily trading triggers.)

[SemiBizz]

This is easy, I apply Wyckoff's techniques, I look at volumes at swing points in the market. Looking at the Nasdaq composite, the two biggest days of volume in this timeframe were 12/7/04 and 1/3/05

Here's the datapoints:

................. High...... Low ...... Volume

12/7..... 2161.30...... 2114.65 ..... 2.59B

1/3 ..... 2159.64..... 2100.56..... 2.69B

First of all, we go to a lower low on higher volume, that's the first part. Secondly, even with higher volume we were unable to penetrate the high on 12/7.

Conclusion: Weakness, Downtrend.

Volume/price interaction says it all in my World.

What I'd be looking for in a trend reversal here would be a trading day over the 2.69B shares and a swing high over the 2161.30... Although I have my hunches about the market trend and where it goes, the volume/price interaction is what I use to guide my trading....

This post has been edited by SemiBizz: Jan 29 2005, 11:20 PM

[Sentient Being]

I tend to take my computer generted buys then:

1. I draw a line across the tops and the bottoms in the time frame I'm looking at.

2. Or I'll drop in a channel tool and let it draw the lines as I establish the time frame.

3. And if all else fails, look at my position, if I'm long the trend is down and if I'm short the trend is up. I'm really good at getting it wrong.

[atlasshrugged]

two ways

Daily chart with 20, 50,200 ema

Weekly chart with 8 20 50 ema

The weekly carries more weight

[SemiBizz]

TREND TRADING STRATEGY:

Using Wyckoff, when the Nasdaq hit the 2159, 1/3, on what appeared to be a blowout volume day, that set up a LOW RISK ENTRY. I shorted NVDA at 24 that morning, NTGR at 19. This was easy, because if the Nasdaq subsequently had gone over the 2161, that would be my stop... That's the beauty of Wyckoff, Risk/Reward.

[Rogerdodger]

Which trend? 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly?

[SemiBizz]

Which trend? 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly?

Exactly...

[Chart Guru Doug]

Which trend? 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly?

If you use different methods for different timframes, feel free to post them.

Good thread going guys, keep it up!

[Stickan]

I find that regression channels with 2% deviation is great at catching trends on all levles. Experimenting with other % settings can also give good results (like fib 1.618 etc). Different markets has different % alsodifferent dimeframes can vary in the same market.
Combining regr.channels with Median Lines can sometimes support findings. Like in this chart
The regressin channels are with 2% deviation (blue down and red up) and the green Pitchfork is parallell with th]e channels, which supports the opinion that the main tend is up (unless you drop below the grey line at D).
I use tops and bottoms for the regression channels. Thus if you suspect we have a bottom at hand, use the previous top together with the supected bottom. If ithe channel fits and you the have a clear break of the upper channel line a tredn break is probably what happend.



In this chart below I have used data from what some say is the start of this bullmarket 1982 up until today. Std deviation is set to 3% upper and 2% lower.
stig