5 replies to this topic

[mss]

Been awhile sense I have given my outlook comments and because we have some new members reading, felt I should give a very short background as to why I say and do things after 50 years in the market.
Thought I would post some rambling comments on the current market condition as I see it at the present. First I am NOT a Bear or a Bull, but a position trader. I will hold an investment two days up to years depending on what I view as a fair return for the money involved. Not a day trader, unless I make a mistake, then in/out or out/in.
My charts and indicators, as viewed by me, make the following suggestions as to market condition. We are in a LT bull configuration, and may be starting to form a consolidation top for a few weeks, maybe longer, hard to tell at the moment. Price is always king but there are many items pointing to sufficient reason to become cautious. We are in a range of 1590 -1532, 1513, if it stumbles in the next two weeks.
The first chart, daily, gave a VST warning Friday which may turn into a ST.



The second, weekly, chart is still positive but the shorter ratios are starting to slant suggesting a slowing momentum.



The VXO chart strongly suggest a turn is coming and also indicates we have a confirmed "V" bottom. I am the only one still wary of this, and am looking over my shoulder for a complicated deep "W" to form.



The B/S indicator is self explanatory and is only 65% or so timely.



Short term 34BOP chart that has been posted many times and shows a slowing positive trend at the present.



Long term 34 BOP chart to give you a view as to past performance.



This is a momentum chart showing the spread between two ratios and direction of same. Useful for IT and LT and on occasion a heads up ST.



Weekly pivot chart for week off 10/15-19.



Monthly pivot chart with a strong indication of topping process might be starting for awhile.



Comments and questions are always welcome.
mss

[underabigw]

mss, Thanks for the update. I always look forward to seeing your work. UBW

[SilentOne]

hi mss,

Well we are down at the bottom of that channel and a 10 week Hurst low should be here. It could have been yesterday. I am accumulating SSO today and have added a few chip stocks this week (INTC and AMD before earnings).



There is a December high for the $SPX which should work here.

I'm off to Italy for a week so I'll be setting stops and hoping for the best.

cheers,

john

[spielchekr]

Hey MSS:

I thought you might like to take a peek at your 34sBOP on my "flatlined-20 chart of the future". Price must climb a divergence for 10 more days before there's a real chance to fix it (ie, price gets the chance to go upward or stay put on days 11-20 where I've got price going downward). Price must exceed the dashes I've entered to lift the diverging chunk of indicator higher up in the chart. Will she hold up that long?

[mss]

Hey MSS:

I thought you might like to take a peek at your 34sBOP on my "flatlined-20 chart of the future". Price must climb a divergence for 10 more days before there's a real chance to fix it (ie, price gets the chance to go upward or stay put on days 11-20 where I've got price going downward). Price must exceed the dashes I've entered to lift the diverging chunk of indicator higher up in the chart. Will she hold up that long?

Very interesting chart and thanks for posting it. If we were to use a 34EMA a slightly different "view" is given.
The nice thing about a 34SMA is you drop off those bad numbers on sharp moves after 34 days.
I like the concept you have presented. If you have time, would you post a weekly updated chart every weekend? Thanks again for your work.
mss

[SilentOne]

hi guys,

Well we are down at the bottom of that channel and a 10 week Hurst low should be here. It could have been yesterday. I am accumulating SSO today and have added a few chip stocks this week (INTC and AMD before earnings).

Back from Italy today. Man did I make a meal of that entry point for the $SPX. I got stopped out and had to call my broker while on holiday to rebuy. Bought SSO again today as well as EWJ. These will be long term buy hold ETF positions. Also added some uranium positions again this week.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 26 October 2007 - 01:22 PM.