3 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

The SPX action and angle of descent sure looks a lot like October 2000.
Oversold and well below the 55ma, which is topping.
On the bullish side, the Vix has turned down as it did that first week of October!
The first week of October's candle looks a lot like last week: a long tail, down for the week BUT holding above a previous low.
However the second week of October saw that low violated and the overconfident bears were trapped when it reversed back up.
Trapped for a couple of volatile weeks anyway.
It saw a weak rally back up to the 55 ma.
As I said a week or so back, I can't get too bullish longer term until that downtrend line is broken.
That's not going to happen soon, but we could see some excitement soon.

The Tax selling urgency mentioned by Gene Inger in the post below should be lessening.

Lot's of people, we speculated, might just be trying to nurse their winning big-cap stocks to the new 'calendar year',
then nail down those gains in the opening moments of 2008.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2000-02-24&i=p44174958721&a=42930244&r=4275.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 January 2008 - 09:49 AM.

[milbank]

If fractals hold any validity, it does look like this horse is rounding the turn. As far as Gene Inger's suggestion goes...perhaps but, if that were so, why would that not be the case to some degree in other years instead of the "January Effect" we usually see, especially in the first half of the month. With the economy and mortgage/debt situation being what it is on both Wall St. and Main St., I think 2008 is going to be a great year for the nimble trader and blaze a new trail for the longer term investor that had not been seen in other election years that ended in "8". You might call this new trail... The Donner Pass.

[nicolasillo]

I favour a visit to the 1350-1360 level and then an upward correction in an abc style to the 1460 level. After that, the big decline is coming down to 1270 level first with a small upward correction and then down to 1170. ;p btw this prediction has nothing to do with the graph I am about to post ;p

Edited by nicolasillo, 13 January 2008 - 08:15 AM.

[KnowNuttin2]

I favour a visit to the 1350-1360 level and then an upward correction in an abc style to the 1460 level. After that, the big decline is coming down to 1270 level first with a small upward correction and then down to 1170. ;p
btw this prediction has nothing to do with the graph I am about to post ;p

It seems to easy that we hold SPX 1360-1370 level.....I agree that we can have a sharp rally here to the mid 14teens, all indicators are very oversold and everybody expects opex to hurt the bears...and God knows that I don't want to be bearish at $SOX 350 area or XLF at 26 base. BUT still worry that THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT...CRASH TIME DIFF...I'll look for a 200pt one day rally and then on bad earnings or CPI,PPI news to open down 200+pts and be down 500 on the day. The world is playing our mkt and thats why its so volitile. $BPCOMPQ is at 24% a very good buy area in bull mkt corrections. BUT....18 to 20% is a no brainer buy in a bear mkt....While the lead story on the National news is blood on the street we'll be buying. I'm looking for $indu 12100 to 11700.