6 replies to this topic

[beta]

Keep an eye on this -- it's been the canary for the entire commodity bull cycle since '00.

Note the clear five-wave pattern in formation; appears one final wave up to low 400's could be in play.

Reviewing this 10-year chart makes me wonder whether we are completing a Primary ONE in the commodity complex (as Alf Fields and Jim Rogers suggest) or in fact, completing a supercycle top (as WaveTimer suggests) ??

Much is at stake.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CRB&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p88003040191&a=120433812&r=6636.png

Edited by beta, 14 January 2008 - 04:22 PM.

[fib_1618]

Reviewing this 10-year chart makes me wonder whether we are completing a Primary ONE in the commodity complex

Elliott aside, the primary direction of commodity prices has its basis on the price pattern of gold with about a 6 to 9 month off set.

I'm including a longer term chart of the CRB that might also help answer your question on a cyclical basis while keeping in mind that monetary policy can occasionally put a thumb on the scale from time to time.

Fib

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CRB&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p24112792970&a=127476492&r=5006.png

[beta]

Thanks, Fib -- really nice work. That chart DOES help put things into LT perspective. If this turns out as a left-translated top, your cycle patterns may suggest an IT top in the next 1-2 months, followed by a 2-year correction. Im looking at '09 LEAPS on some of the major players. Will post some individual charts in this group later.

Edited by beta, 14 January 2008 - 05:53 PM.

[beta]

correction to first post: the sentence "Reviewing this 10-year chart makes me wonder whether we are completing a Primary ONE in the commodity complex" should have referred to Major THREE(I), instead of "Primary ONE." The key issue is, is there another major advance (Major FIVE) left after the next anticipated correction ? Most investors/traders on this board seem to suggest "yes."

Edited by beta, 14 January 2008 - 06:22 PM.

[fib_1618]

Most investors/traders on this board seem to suggest "yes."

So does gold which is the ultimate arbitrator in such things "opinionated".

Fib

[dougie]

would that be LEAP puts? Also, commodities could well top out and gold run, no?quote name='beta' date='Jan 14 2008, 05:48 PM' post='343566'] Thanks, Fib -- really nice work. That chart DOES help put things into LT perspective. If this turns out as a left-translated top, your cycle patterns may suggest an IT top in the next 1-2 months, followed by a 2-year correction. Im looking at '09 LEAPS on some of the major players. Will post some individual charts in this group later. [/quote]

[beta]

dougie -- yes. But short-term, buying RIO.